This really pisses me off! Swatch Group cuts parts supplies to external distributors (UK).

The scenarios you bring up are best answered by fellow collectors, rather than by me with my watchmaker hat on. However some things can be considered based on what we know right now...

1 - How fast particular parts run out will depend on how many the supplier has in stock - my understanding is that when this was announced, Omega agreed to supply based on previous years orders, so no supplier would have the chance to order 10X what they normally would in a year to stock up in preparation for this change.

2 - The most popular parts will be the first to run out generally, but also may be the parts that a supplier has the most of on hand. I expect there will be a "run" on certain parts if people know what is likely to be needed. If it were me, I would be looking at consumable items like crystals, gaskets, pushers, crowns, mainsprings, or high wear items like train wheels, bushings, etc.. I often get asked "what spares should I buy" and that is a difficult question. Although I know a few parts that I replace on many watches, if you really want to you can find a reason to justify keeping just about any part on hand (in particular since you know they might not be available in the future).

3 - Most material suppliers buy up parts from sources other than the companies that produce the parts. So this means when a smaller material supplier goes out of business (this will be an unfortunate result of policies like this one) they usually sell all their stock to a larger material supplier. I have been in the "back rooms" of a few large material suppliers, and many have huge piles of boxes of parts that have been purchased and not yet sorted for sale. Also, these material suppliers will buy parts from watchmaker estates, so there is an influx of parts of various types, even after the supplies have been cut off. The larger the material supplier, the more likely they will have what you need as the parts supply becomes more concentrated.

4 - Watchmakers will also have parts in stock. I just looked at my 2014 year end inventory, and every year the dollar figure held in parts surprises me a bit...I won't say more than that, except that those tiny parts add up fast. 😉

5 - There is no doubt the secondary market for parts, from material suppliers, eBay, etc. will go up in price. As I have said for things like Cal. 321 parts, most people who hold those parts that are no longer readily available from Omega know they are rare, and as the value of the watches rise, people are willing to spend more and more on the parts to keep those watches going.

6 - You still have the option of going to Omega, or to a watchmaker that has a parts account.

Anyway, just a few thoughts that might be relevant to your decision making process going forward.

Cheers, Al