I’m having a hard time even phrasing this question. I’m realizing from the get go that it is all conjecture but I’ll ask it anyway.

I’m spending a pretty penny on pricey vintage watches. For the purpose of this conversation, ‘pricey’ means watches in the $1k~$3k range (and let’s face it, the occasional one trying to scratch at $5k). ‘Vintage’ meaning 50’s, 60’s, and significant 70’s models.

I know that over the years sensibilities change and what is trending today (big, steel, tool watches) may be out of favor tomorrow and vise versa (for instance a renewed interest in dress gold watches), but overall; where do you see prices for vintage watches going in say 10 to 20 years? Do you see it keeping up with inflation? Gaining in value? Going down due to lack of interest?

 

Absolute crystal ball gazing! But, there are a few factors
- precious metals. A gold watch always has that value to fall back on. So if you think physical gold is a good investment, a solid gold watch has that floor under its price
- historical significance. Ed whites, pre-moons, etc. the moon landing will always be of historical significance. Paul Newman may not be of historical significance in 30yrs time.
- use value and cost to maintain. If the hunk of metal continue to function as a watch (enter the debate about spare parts), then the price of a modern replacement provides another reference point.

I think it's the spare parts/cost of repair issue which is probably the most significant here.......

 

Don't forget style. As long as the watch manufacturers today keep reaching to the past for their designs, original vintage pieces will be desirable. I'm talking about growth with the average joe not the focus group of this list. We are already sold.
I hope that value of vintage watches continue grow and not go the way of hotwheels, beanie babies, carnival glass, golf clubs, etc. The advantage of the cool vintage wristwatch is that, besides the look, it also tells time. Aren't cool pens still increasing in value? Dual purpose there, too.

 

Uniqueness is a factor but unless it's also very desirable, I doubt being unique would impact on price. Thankfully, unique watches tend to be desirable as well. That old adage, "where are you going to find another one", comes to mind.

 

with one or two exceptions I predominantly collect Omegas . But in terms of future investment value i am now cutting back on the quartz models in my collection. I feel that the mechanical watches i have will in the long term be the Best bet .On the subject of spares to keep the watches going into perpetuity i am like no doubt others on here dissapointed with omegas decision to limit the supply of spares to only omega agents as from i believe this coming December 15th.2015.I believe the effect of this will very quickly pusj up the price of the spares being held by those who have them and they most likely will be keeping them for own repairs only . Just a footnote I think the future of watches is assured as we enter the new generation of digital display watches that are synchedto our mobile phones.Although how many of them willbe around in even two to three years let alone sixty to seventy remains to be seen if they follow the marketing trends of thier synched devices , the mobile phonephones that are outdated in about two years or maybe less.

 

I do not worry about the future value of my small collection of vintage watches, what bothers me more is the access to parts to keep them going. I am thinking about moving on to more modern watches, but they don t give me the same feeling that I get when I see a 60s or 70s Omega watch. I have no plans to sell any of my watches so the value issue doesn t concern me. (It might if I were to drop 10k on a vintage watch only to see it fall in value by a significant amount)

 

In the timeframe that you mention – 10-20 years – the value of really good vintage watches should increase significantly. Values are not at all likely to go straight up, though, and in fact I would expect a "correction" from current lofty values in the relatively near future.

As mentioned previously by CanberraOmega, gold cased watches will always have intrinsic value beyond collector value, and I predict that their values will increase significantly as gold prices escalate in the coming, economically turbulent years. The values of especially good gold watches are likely to outperform the broader market, as an increasing number of GCW will also be melted for scrap, reducing the pool of those available to collectors.

Buying watches with established followings based on classic design, important movements, etc., will always be safer than speculating in lesser known models and brands.

Regards,

Tony C.

 

As is graphically illustrated whenever the gold price skyrockets the resultant shock to the surviving stocks of gold pocket watches diminishes an already diminished pool.

the same effect will consume the gold wristwatch market as watches in the mid-low high brackets are melted for their scrap value when parts and perceived value with respect to brands dictate that the market won't pay anything over scrap value for them.

 

As said above a decent brand name gold or even SS dress watch will always be in fashion.

All that is needed is another Mad Men type show to throw hundreds more in the vintage watch hunt with the rest of us and boom prices go up.

 

Any attempt to value vintage watches 10-20 years hence is IMO, pure speculation. It may be informed speculation, but speculation nonetheless. The same can, of course, be said for the stock market, though the history there is at least longer. Vintage watches as an investment is a relatively new (and thinly traded) phenomenon. If I had to guess, values for some of the best examples will continue to rise, but there will no doubt be (sometimes significant) volatility along the way.

Although I do not choose to "invest" in watches, that's all it is, my choice. Watches are a hobby for me, paid for with discretionary funds, not investment capital. I enjoy them for what they are, with no expectation of an economic ROI.

All that said, nothing wrong with a diversified portfolio of assets, and watches can be part of it if you so choose. Just know what you're getting into.

 

Actually, I don't believe that to be correct. The reason is that there are two primary variables: supply and demand, and the relative value of currencies. Most who grapple with the question posed by the original poster think about the former, but not the latter.

Over the past 100 years or so, the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar has declined over 95% as a result of inflation. This can be confirmed even through charts used by the Government itself:



So, when one thinks of how much certain things have increased in value over the past 100 years, those increases are a result not only of increased demand and/or reduced supply, but also the degraded value of the currency being used.

Now, it just so happens that several major currencies around the world, including the USD, are currently being degraded at a much faster pace than ever, and there is no end in sight, as policy makers and Central Banks have painted themselves into corners, and have no other effective tools with which to attempt to further delay an inevitable collapse of the biggest credit/debt bubble in history.

Creating more "money" with the stroke of keyboard won't solve any of the deep economic problems facing the world, but those running the show want desperately to keep the balls in the air as long as possible. This means that certain currencies will continue to be degraded, which in turn means that anything priced in those currencies that merely retain level supply and demand will increase in value.

In other words, if you have a watch that is worth $2000 today, and there is good reason to believe that, as a collectible, there will be similar, if not greater demand 15 years from now, it is a virtual certainty that it will be worth more in any currency that is destined to be worth less.

 

Like to see this work with a Iwatch..........

 

We are talking about vintage watches. I would never suggest "investing" in contemporary watches.

 

I see many here have touched on an important consideration, but I would like to emphasize it:
The best examples will always be in demand.
If I could italicizes and bold-text that sentence I would. We are not just talking about in-demand styles, but specifically the condition.
Yes, it has always been stressed that condition is important. But I think moving forward, that will become even more critical..
As it stands today, parts for some desirable vintage watches have not been in production for decades. A few parts that are still available from the manufacture are now going to be even more difficult to source.
Companies like Omega/Swatch will soon begin to refuse providing parts to independent watchmakers. Combine this with the manufacturer's tendency to perform services as only they see fit, some vintage examples will not be able to maintain their originality (or worse yet, lose their originality at the hands of the manufacturer's service).
Extremely clean examples of any vintage watch will be desirable. The fine condition of these examples suggest a service may be the only necessity, and that parts may not be needed.
If prime condition examples reduce the risk of needing parts, these will be most treasured in the future.

 

At the end of this year, 3rd party material suppliers will be cut off yes, but independent watchmakers who have parts accounts are not being cut off.

If a watchmaker tells you that at the end of this year Swatch is cutting them off, most likely what they mean is the supplier they buy their parts from is being cut off, not them directly.

Cheers, Al

 

I've also wondered this question. The die hard collectors will drive certain pieces up, but I think if you stick with the more general popular models as mentioned you'll be ok. If you go off the cuff and speculate, then its hit or miss depending on the times. There's always throwbacks and I'm seeing a resurgance of the casio's in the younger crowd. Younger folks are also getting exposed to the iwatch, so their definition would be different. Kinda like CD's, DVD's, Tape.. So general consumption might be down for these types of watches, but personally I'd stick with the usual suspects.. Rolex, Omega's speeds, Pateks which might "gain" or more likely hold their price and in rare cases gain.

 

Three words: supply and demand.

For general vintage models (particularly ubiquitous ones like the 861 Speedmasters, Rolex Subs, etc), they'll likely rise with general inflation but not much more. For sought-after non-Rolex models that exist in lower quantities and have seen a strong price increase as of late (straight lug Speedies in the Omega world, Compax/Tri-Compaxes for UG, Heuer Carreras / rare Autavias), I think they'll continue to outpace inflation by a good margin so long as the condition warrants it. Collectors have snatched up a lot of the premier examples for now, but I think the next 5-10 years will continue to uncover some fabulous non-Rolex pieces that were passed down in a family (only to be sold), or sold by the original owner as they age. General interest in watches, in addition to well interpreted re-issues for some modern watches, should continue to introduce a lot of people to the vintage world that never would have found an avenue into the hobby in the pre-internet era (I'm an example of someone like that).

The one area where I think it's unwise to "invest" in vintage right now is Rolex. I'd love a Daytona and it's near the top of my grail list, but prices are just plain stupid for multiple models/references now. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shrink back to at least the realm of sanity in the near future.

I also wouldn't count on any modern examples being great investments. FP Journe, Laurent Ferrier, and certain Lange's may end up appreciating eventually, but you might as well pin them to a dart board and start throwing at it to figure out which brand and why.

 

Any pre-1975 watch I buy for the enjoyment of wearing it.

When I purchase, I assume I won't be able to find the parts and will just wear it until something breaks.

At that point I might be lucky to find a part or someone to service, but worst case scenario I knew the risk when I bought it.

To sell, someone better like the piece more than me and have the funds to back that sentiment.


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