I see this term tossed around a lot, and maybe I don't understand it because I'm not that well-versed in economics. However, most bubbles burst, and when they do, prices usually plummet. But does the bubble analogy really hold when something has been horribly undervalued, and then rises to its correct market value? And then, when it experiences minor prices fluctuations over the years after that, is that really the bubble bursting? Are quality Speedmasters likely to continue to appreciate? Probably. Will prices level at some point? No doubt. Will those prices tank so low that Gemini wants to take a dive off a building in downtown New York? Not likely.
Unlikely for the high quality and original early vintage speedmasters - because the supply is so limited. And many of the examples that do exist are now in the hands of collectors who really are not planning to sell and who can afford not to.
For me, a bubble also has the requisite of forming from an over leveraged market ... I don't see that being the case with Speedys
I'd call it a bubble when we start to see 145.022-7x models start appreciating like wildfire. They're currently undervalued though IMO, especially the earlier Moons with stepped dials.
Strictly speaking a bubble is when overvalued stock gets traded in a frenzy. The "bubble" bursts and prices stabalize to true market. Even in the South Sea Trading company the prices settled to a little over offer price, and the company continued to trade for another 100(?) or so years. Speedmasters are in my opinion undervalued when it comes to comparables - in particular Rolex Chronographs that are currently priced higher and more abundant. Money, or currency is devaluing every day. So are Speedmasters going up, or are the people buying them closer to the "money stream" and thus seeing first hand that $1000 last year bought you more. Certainly the people I know who buy watches are very market savvy and often work in hands on trade. Even if this is a bubble, prices will stabalize higher than where they started - unless we are all wearing animal skins and using coloured rocks as currency.
"Bubble" doesn't really apply at all in this case study due to very limited supply. Modern Speedmasters are and never will be a "bubble", and neither will 321s due to the ever increasing rarity and very limited supply.
I think current taste s in watches are a big factor for watch prices. Gold watches are not expensive because people don't like gold watches as much as they once did, same with dress watches. Tool watches are more versitlie, they look equally good worn with a suit or jeans and a tee shirt. Not so much for dress watches. I doubt prices for some speedmasters will go down but perhaps other types of watches will be more desirable and fetch, what might be considered unimaginable prices, compared to today.
I think the crazy high prices will stop with the transitional -69, especially tropicals and 220 bezels. Earlier Speedies in top condition will continue to rise, which will bring up mediocre examples I think at a slower rate. I think the consumer base for vintage watches is still rather small, and as it increases, it will push the best examples even higher.
IMHO, much of this is more about the overall economy. With lots of money floating around, some of it will go to stuff like vintage cars, art, and yes vintage Speedys. The vintage car market is already showing signs of slowdown, like it was prior to the last recession. Once the next recession rolls we're likely to see great deals on vintage Speedys. Would be a great time to buy.
https://omegaforums.net/threads/omega-speedie-mania.30485/ The bubble maker was Speedie-mania auction
The appreciation is everywhere and not just speedies. Look at UG, Heuer, Enicar, Rolex, etc... even vintage Ferrari prices has been crazy! Too much money chasing few assets...theres not much out there where you can put your money in...
Bubble, frenzy, whatever. While I agree that 321 Speedmasters were undervalued until the last 6 months, I just don't see the current prices being sustained in the long term. I think prices were due a correction but the momentum that has built up recently has led to an over correction and I think prices will settle down somewhere in the middle. For instance a nice Ed White used to be $5-6k 12-24 months ago. Now they're at 10-12k or even more.
Yeah, but try to find a good-condition 105.003, then try to find a good condition Rolex GMT or Daytona. Even the "super-rare" big crown Subs are easier to find than a good honest 105.012. Hell, even decent 145.012s are hard to find - just look at that listing from over the weekend with everything nicely in place except a 105.012 dial... What that's all to say is, this is a rotation of money into Speedmasters, where it'll likely stay for a while.