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  1. WurstEver Apr 8, 2019

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    Ever since I started thinking about the relationship between production dates and serial numbers, one particular Speedmaster reference has presented something of a puzzle. Coincidentally, it is also my birth year reference: 145.022-74.

    The -74 is interesting for a few reasons. First, it spans the widest range of serial numbers of any of the 145.022 sub-references by a considerable margin: from 31x right through to 39x. Second, the -74 is really the first time we see all the major elements of the modern Speedmaster come together, since it represents the transition point between the older step dial and the newer, current, dome dial. And third, while it shares its serial number range with a couple of other interesting references, it began to appear much later than them. This is best exemplified in the 31x range. Serial numbers beginning with 31x are seen in the popular -69s, -69 Straight Writing models, and the last of the step dials, the -71s. Indeed reputable sources give 31x as the starting range for the latter two of those references as well as for the -74. This is a little odd since in terms of time, the beginnings of the runs of these models were offset by some years, the latest of course being the -74, which started its run in 1975.

    If you're familiar with the production date prediction methods that were developed here:
    https://omegaforums.net/threads/speedy-production-dates-an-alternative-to-hartmanns-table.56856/
    and that were used by @eugeneandresson to drive his web-based query tool, you might begin to wonder what effect this offset in the timing of the appearance of watches in the 31x range has on the modeling. Well, there's the rub. At least during the time that I was actively involved in developing these methods it had almost no effect, because ALL of the extracts I found or that were sent to me with 31x serial numbers gave production dates of 1971 or 1972.

    This is a bit of a mystery, since in theory, extracts from the archives for genuine -74s with 31x movements should show a production date of 1975 onward. But I personally have never seen such an extract. Frankly, I'm beginning to wonder if they even exist.

    You can see the effect of this in the results given by the query tool. With credit to Eugene, who created the tool, the screen grab below shows the results for a serial number in the middle of the 31x range. Notice how the extract prediction - which is based on data from observed extracts - gives an estimate of May 1971 while the Moonwatch Only tables show that this is also a valid serial number for -74s which have a production run beginning in 1975? Somewhat out of alignment, right?

    Screenshot_20190408-075946(1)(1).jpg
    Now, of course this should not be read as a criticism of the tool. It is only to highlight an interesting shortcoming in the data and methods underlying the tool and an area where I think maybe more needs to be learnt. To be clear, the reason the extract prediction is so out of alignment with the known run of the -74s is no mystery. The prediction is based on a fairly straightforward mapping of known examples of serial number/production date pairs. And all of the extracts with 31x serial numbers that I've seen give production dates around the date of the example shown above; that is, 1971-1972. So where are all the extracts from genuine -74s showing 31x serials and production dates during or after 1975?

    There are a few things that might be going on here. On the one hand, interest in the 1970s references is only just beginning to build, so maybe relatively few extracts have been requested for these watches. On the other hand, maybe these extracts are out there but they just haven't been posted online. Maybe they have been posted and I've just missed them. Or maybe there are just so few that they don't really pop up. We'll, at the risk of looking silly I'm going put forward a slightly more controversial hypothesis in the hope of bringing these examples out: I hypothesise that no official extract from the Omega archives exists for a Speedmaster with a serial number of 31x and a production date of 1975 or later. It should be easy and quick to show this hypothesis to be false. And I'll be happy to have learnt something if that happens.

    So, if you have 'em, let's see 'em.

    Why is this important? Well, first and foremost, it's not really. This is a watch forum. Get a grip ;)
    But seriously, I suppose that this is an issue that has been touched upon from time-to-time, eg:
    https://omegaforums.net/threads/speedmaster-extract-production-date.69215/
    https://omegaforums.net/threads/omega-145-022-74-good-buy.65496/
    but which I've never really seen framed in this particular way or resolved completely. Clearing this up could be useful for refining the production date estimation methods, which people seem to find handy. And, while I'd rather leave discussion of the WHY until we can establish the truth or falsity of the basic hypothesis, it could maybe fill a gap in our understanding of how these watches were documented - particularly in the chaotic early 1970s. Also, it might save us from giving bad advice on the basis of incomplete information. Either way, the apparent online absence of 31x / 1975 extracts constitutes an interesting little puzzle that should be reasonably easy to resolve given the resources available on OF.

    Edit: fixed broken links
     
    Edited Apr 9, 2019
  2. BenBagbag Apr 8, 2019

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    Could it be that movements "produced" in 1971 were assembled in watches 3 years later in 1974? I thought this was discussed a bunch and the consensus is that MWO got it wrong or movements sat around for a few years during the quartz crisis. Another possibility is that all 31x -74 speedies are frankens...

    Remember a few more were engaged in this very discussion. Calling at least @gdupree. Wonder if @abrod520 has insight?
     
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  3. WurstEver Apr 8, 2019

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    Yep, you're right. This general issue and the possible explanations you described have come up a few times. However, I've not seen a concerted attempt to move the discussion forward by confirming or disconfirming the existence of 31x / 1975 extracts. There's no need to spin our wheels if these extracts are out there, but just not widely seen. However, if they truly can't be found, then it's worth considering why.
     
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  4. mancio Apr 8, 2019

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    According to MWO, movement for the early 74 model are leftover from the 71 production. In fact they have a metal brake and not the plastic one of the later 74/75 model.

    As far as i know, there are an handful of 74 here that are that early. Two were in my possession ( one has been sold ) and their serial were apart by hundred something unit.

    At my knowledge, the only way would be to know the delivery date of the watch which can be asked by calling in Omega in switzelrland (i have still to call in Omega and try to have info) because they won't add that info on the Extract.
     
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  5. abrod520 Apr 8, 2019

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    Only that I've seen a bunch of -74s with 31xxx movements - sales on eBay and forums etc. and had one or two pass through my hands. My main thought is that if -74s with 31x movements are frankens, it seems it's a very popular model to franken, without much upside either as the the majority of sales of -74s haven't been higher enough than those of the most likely donors models of similar condition to justify the trouble of swapping a movement.
    Agree with Chris that I've never seen a confirmed Extract for one though, so I'm quite interested to see the results here.
     
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  6. mancio Apr 8, 2019

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    It seems a littel weird that all the franken here ( if we are talking of malicious intent) have all correct hands, dial, bezel, crown and pusher for an early 74 model.
    Except for incorrect watches (like it could be a 74 with a step dial) the Franken 74 were assembled by Omega with the extra movement from 71.
     
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  7. abrod520 Apr 8, 2019

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    That's what I mean - I don't think they're frankens.
     
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  8. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Apr 8, 2019

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    There are a few theories out there....

    Let me put in some more info... I have recorded 31.00m and a 32.21m step dials, the bulk of 74's I have recorded are 31.3 to 31.6m all with Domes.

    I do not have a 39m recorded let alone anything past 32.21
    I only have 10 recorded and none of mine have an extract....
     
  9. WurstEver Apr 9, 2019

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    Bumping for visibility. As described above, I hypothesise that no official extract from the Omega archives exists for a Speedmaster with a serial number of 31x and a production date of 1975 or later. It should be easy and quick to show this hypothesis to be false.

    Spot on, Adam. These come up fairly regularly, so where are the extracts? There could be what's called in the science world a "file drawer effect" going on here. That's where results that are regarded as weird or confusing are filed away by slightly embarrassed researchers, never to see the light of day and because of that, the public record of results is incomplete and potentially misleading.

    Apologies for a couple of broken links in the OP. Fixed now (I think).
     
  10. abrod520 Apr 9, 2019

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    Could certainly be - quite notably, a -74 popped up on eBay today with a 39.1M serial - but it featured a couple of incorrect parts, so doubt must be cast on its originality. If you ask me though, I think it's because -74s as yet are not quite valuable enough to justify the $150 cost of an Extract. A $15,000 105.003 has quite a bit of value added when an Extract is confirmed, but for a $3k -74 it doesn't make as much sense. Which is not to say there's anything wrong with the 145.022-74; I personally think they're quite cool.
     
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  11. eugeneandresson 'I used a hammer, a chisel, and my fingers' Apr 9, 2019

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    I have none either.

    A viable theory :

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quartz_crisis

    This started shortly after the moonlanding (which no doubt boosted production / sales, and forecasts) and was also not foreseen, and lasted into the 80s. Omega came out with the first quartz marine chronometer in ‘74...they were busy fighting, and cutting costs. And not selling as many watches as before.

    This nicely explains the abundance of -69’s, and the scarcity of -7x’s ... well, that and the green lume :whistling:

    For posterity:

    None of the methods presented in detail in these threads were or are used in the web tool. It’s also not freely available on the internet, like those discussed.

    Would be more than happy to share the used algorithm ideas in more detail than I last outlined in the above threads (only with established members :thumbsup:), if anyone cares. But I’m sure y’all rather be looking at watches...
     
    Edited Apr 9, 2019
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  12. WurstEver Apr 9, 2019

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    Thanks Eugene, interesting to know you don't have any either.
     
  13. bazamu wincer, not a bidder Apr 9, 2019

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    I'm actually very interested in this thread, as I opportunistically purchased an original owner Speedy last week and had the opportunity to speak with him before buying. He received it as a gift in 1974 and wore it sparingly with no servicing that he remembers over the years. The pictures were quite bad, but when I saw it, I immediately perked up because I thought it was a -71, based on the step dial. A couple minutes later, I unscrewed the caseback and was quite surprised to see a -74 caseback. My consternation only grew when I removed the dust cover and saw a 322X movement number. I know it's "correct" by the letter of the law, but it's an interesting oddity, and I can't say I had any idea about this serial / reference mismatch prior to stumbling on this one.

    My initial thought was that the owner had received it as a gift in '74 but it perhaps sat in a jewelry store for three years since being shipped out of Bienne. Now, particularly with other instances like this being unearthed, I think there's more to the story.

    (Obligatory photos)
    3-19-19-1.jpg 3-19-19-2.jpg 3-19-19-4.jpg 3-20-19-1.jpg 3-20-19-2.jpg
     
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  14. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Apr 9, 2019

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    Question do you see -69 at 31m with plastic brakes?
     
  15. WurstEver Apr 10, 2019

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    Edited Apr 10, 2019
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  16. WurstEver Apr 10, 2019

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    G'day all. As of now, this thread has been viewed 432 times and so far no 31x/1975 extract has been forthcoming. I promise not to bump the thread daily forever, but I would like to give it every chance of being seen by someone who's in a position to set the record straight.

    Just to reiterate: I hypothesise that no official extract from the Omega archives exists for a Speedmaster with a serial number of 31x and a production date of 1975 or later. If anyone is in possession of evidence to show that I'm wrong, please post it and I'll thank you sincerely for helping me to learn something.

    I know of at least one inbound extract for a -74 with a 31x serial number. So if nothing is forthcoming before that arrives, it will provide something of a test. See @Norfolk's thread here: https://omegaforums.net/threads/145022-74-with-early-movement.92795/#post-1202818

    Once that result is in, I have an idea for how we might up the ante a little bit :)
     
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  17. WurstEver Apr 12, 2019

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    Bumping this at the opposite end of the day to hopefully catch a different audience. 504 page views and no 31x / 1975 extract forthcoming yet. If you have one, please consider posting it because it is my assertion that the thing you are holding does not exist.
     
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  18. JMH76 Apr 12, 2019

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    I'd be interested in the details.
     
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  19. eugeneandresson 'I used a hammer, a chisel, and my fingers' Apr 12, 2019

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    Hi James. Noted :) Will get back to you via PM when I have a mo to dig through the code ...
     
  20. JMH76 Apr 12, 2019

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    Since MWO tables show -74's with s/n up to 39,xxx,xxx perhaps one of those authors could chime in with the basis for their table.
     
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