Sotheby’s online auction....just closed, no bids?

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I‘m aware of the high costs of premium real estate renting and insurence coverage but they don’t hold one or two auctions a year, they hold multiple Auctions a month.

They have their big watch auctions about 3-4 times per year plus online auctions from time to time. They have huge overheads and people costs. Watches in particular are not big profit drivers for the auction houses. It's really fine art that keeps them in business.
 
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They have their big watch auctions about 3-4 times per year plus online auctions from time to time. They have huge overheads and people costs. Watches in particular are not big profit drivers for the auction houses. It's really fine art that keeps them in business.


https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ts-2019-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

„“We are very pleased with our second quarter and first half performance,” said Tad Smith, President and CEO“

It‘s not like the big auction houses seemed to be short on cash in the last 2 years, that’s why i‘m Wondering why such claims are being made by them now apparently.

Cheers,

Max
 
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Wasn't Sotheby's just purchased (taken private) last year for something like $4B?
 
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https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ts-2019-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

„“We are very pleased with our second quarter and first half performance,” said Tad Smith, President and CEO“

It‘s not like the big auction houses seemed to be short on cash in the last 2 years, that’s why i‘m Wondering why such claims are being made by them now apparently.

Cheers,

Max

Again, the results of the overall company do not show the picture of how a particular segment such as watches performs. If you take Sotheby's for example, watches accounted for about 10% of total revenue in 2018. So 90% is mostly fine art and jewelry.

I would agree that being short of cash is probably BS and anyone that works at an auction house who would say comment like that is unprofessional.

All I'm saying is that watches account for a small part of the auction world and cost structures are likely high.
Edited:
 
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What the hell is going on with those explorer 2 prices? £23K hammer pride for a 1987? Maybe they are not real bids showing.
Right? That bezel isn't even right. 😀
 
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1984 1655 with MK1 dial with a MK 5 insert is unheard of. I think it’s the papers that get people bidding more than they should
 
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I should have clarified that stocks statement.
People are moving their money away from the bank accounts. For stocks , indexes etc it‘s very cheap to buy in right now and it may get even cheaper if the economy keeps tanking. People are afraid that we might get to the stage of hyper inflation, so while your stocks might recover (long term holding for at least 10 years) your money in the bank might be worth next to nothing if Inflation hits.


BTT:
I‘m aware of the high costs of premium real estate renting and insurence coverage but they don’t hold one or two auctions a year, they hold multiple Auctions a month.
Most of the auction houses raked in tons of money in the last years with prices rising for tangible assets (at least since 2008).
If they run (I can’t imagine that) on such a small Marging that they barely survive with the costs of their overhead than it was / is a massive miscalculation on their part, as would be with every other business. I don’t believe that these companies aren’t clever enough to avoid such a miscalculation.


I definitely think that people have moved away from savings account, given the low yield, but i also don't see inflation going back to where it was 10-20 years back, in a world where deflation is happening all around, globally. For sure, stocks and index may look cheap compare to the peak, but how much did it go up since this last bull run? And that is assuming that you don't already have a good portion of your investment tied to stocks and your portfolio value already dropped, or you have leveraged investment that need to cover. So i think retail money has not gone back to the stock market. During good market, we see the money flow into the general watch market and the whole market inflated. I think we have already seen dealers correct their prices for the low and mid end watches. However, I think for the rich and buyer for the high-end watches (the ones that usually go to auctions), they have not really been hurt, and the quantitative easing is just helping them stay rich. At the high end, we see exchanges of watches between top buyers stay at a decent level. This is just my guess.

I also think that you probably overestimated the margins of these auction houses. The people, the marketing, the rent are all expensive, and the competition of other auction houses, online auctions and dealers, have really cut into their margins.
 
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Again, the results of the overall company do not show the picture of how a particular segment such as watches performs. If you take Sotheby's for example, watches accounted for about 10% of total revenue in 2018. So 90% is mostly fine art and jewelry.

I would agree that being short of cash is probably BS and anyone that works at an auction house who would say comment like that is unprofessional.

All I'm saying is that watches account for a small part of the auction world and cost structures are likely high.

I think we are essentially on the same card. Maybe there was a misunderstanding, I was of course talking about Sotheby’s as a whole company, not separately looking at the watch auctions they are holding. I don’t think that their different sections work with separate resources and funds.


I also think that you probably overestimated the margins of these auction houses. The people, the marketing, the rent are all expensive, and the competition of other auction houses, online auctions and dealers, have really cut into their margins.

If you think that ca. 60 million $ NET income in the first quarter of 2019 alone and a ca. 30% increase compared to 2018 is overestimating on my end then we just have a different understanding of their margins and cost they are operating on. 😉.

BTT:

I should have bought Creme/pana Dial EXPL II‘s.... a Watch that went totally under my radar the past couple of years.
 
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I think we are essentially on the same card. Maybe there was a misunderstanding, I was of course talking about Sotheby’s as a whole company, not separately looking at the watch auctions they are holding. I don’t think that their different sections work with separate resources and funds.




If you think that ca. 60 million $ NET income in the first quarter of 2019 alone and a ca. 30% increase compared to 2018 is overestimating on my end then we just have a different understanding of their margins and cost they are operating on. 😉.

BTT:

I should have bought Creme/pana Dial EXPL II‘s.... a Watch that went totally under my radar the past couple of years.

I just looked at Sotheby's 2018 financial, they ran a 17% operating margin and a 10% net income margin. Not bad for a business, but its an asset light/trading business, so actually margin is not that high. Most of the expense are fixed, the biggest is salaries expense, followed by overhead. And these are good years for watch selling, as it is fairly liquid, imagine a slow year (not sure if this year will be), that fixed cost will eat their margin and a sub-10% operating margin will be pretty bad.
 
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Wasn't Sotheby's bought by P Drahi recently?

I think for watches their goal may be to get high end dealers prices, without the work (no service, no warranty, ...) and without the stock. Trade watches as art.
 
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I should have bought Creme/pana Dial EXPL II‘s.... a Watch that went totally under my radar the past couple of years.

that lot had an incorrect bezel. A couple of weeks ago there was a very good one for sale for less but yes, they are on the move
 
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Wasn't Sotheby's bought by P Drahi recently?

I think for watches their goal may be to get high end dealers prices, without the work (no service, no warranty, ...) and without the stock. Trade watches as art.
Seeing how he runs SFR (French TelCo provider), if this was his business plan, it wouldn't surprise me.
 
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Seeing how he runs SFR (French TelCo provider), if this was his business plan, it wouldn't surprise me.
Indeed... I thought the same.
 
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I've never had a look. Are there reasonably priced watches around or under $6-7? All seems a bit daunting
 
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Some of the more run of the mill watches went for way over what they can be bought for elsewhere. Wonder what causes people to pay that. There must be a decent amount of laundering going through auction houses, and watches are easily portable too which helps
 
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A Collected Man just posted an interesting article looking at the watch market in the midst of COVID-19: https://www.acollectedman.com/blogs/journal/an-outlook-on-the-watch-market-amid-the-covid-19-crisis

Here is the chart they put together on Big 4 auction house watch sales from 2008 to the present:

Charts-2.2_2048x2048.jpg

Here's what they wrote about this Sotheby's auction:

With all that in mind, some early trends might possibly be emerging. While new watch sales have understandably been hit hard by the closure of manufacturing sites and retail spaces, the auction world has been hit especially hard by travel restrictions, bans on large gatherings and a dip in the global economy. This has led to all the big auction houses closing sites and pushing back sales, though there does still seem to be some resilience, with this crisis proving to be a catalyst for a swing towards online sales. In fact, Biebuyck has seen this coming for a while, “I can remember sitting at dinners in Hong Kong where three or four of us would have iPads propped up next to us, bidding on an auction taking place at Philips.”

And this trend looks set to continue as Sotheby’s weekly auctions, taking place as we write, showing reasonably healthy numbers. A modern Patek Philippe sale closing on April 7, had modern Nautilus watches, understandably bemoaned by many as fairly commoditised models primed for adjustment, still hitting pre-Coronavirus figures. Sam Hines, the Head of Watches at Sotheby’s commented, “our online auctions have been going ahead and performing exceptionally well.” The most recent Geneva online sale saw a Paul Newman “Panda” ref. 6241 set a record at Sotheby’s for a watch sold in an online-only sale. It sold for HKD 2,375,000 including fees (or approximately USD 306,400) and in his opinion “shows that there is still a huge appetite amongst collectors.”