https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auc...left_to_bid&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zaius

(Edit: I was too quick off the mark to see the results, which are now present. All sold, most around high estimate. Pretty good result , and goes against the thrust of my post which is that online auctions wont be popular!)


So Sotheby’s like many B&M auctions, in response to spiralling IRL costs of running an auction, are trying to push all of us to online auctions - frontline staff at three of the biggest houses have told me in the last year that “they can’t make enough money to survive” on their physical auctions.

like many board level decisions that sound good, these high reputation houses shifting to online is surely misguided. I go to the big auctions for fun really, as almost nothing I bought in last four years (with a notable exception) was a bargain. I meet other collectors, some dealers and talk to others first hand at the viewings and generally expand my knowledge.

if I am going to buy online, eBay is, in spite of its best efforts to destroy itself as a safe watch trading place, the best source for one owner or interesting finds.

last time I looked, online big house auctions still mark up the staggering 25% premium. Added to that is that they have to take a high percentage of trade items to fill the list. So these houses want us to sit at home, bid on a high value watch without handling it, and pay the exorbitant fee without the free cappuccino in the Grand Hyatt Ballroom at the viewing.

I see no attraction for me bidding online with one of the big houses - at the very least I am thinking, if this watch is any good they will have it in a live Geneva / HK /NY auction.

 

I see sold prices for all the lots - I don't have any in depth knowledge of high end / vintage Rolex prices, but the Hulk selling for £13k plus premium seems like a strong result to me. I don't know if the rest of the lots got such high prices, but only judging on that one someone paid £16k for a watch that's selling significantly lower elsewhere.

 

What the hell is going on with those explorer 2 prices? £23K hammer pride for a 1987? Maybe they are not real bids showing.

 

100% sold
explorer price is surprising, but 16550 cream rails were already skyrocketing before this

 

Looks like all lots sold. Pretty solid considering the whole economic uncertainty, possibly due to loads of people stuck at home and passing time looking at watches.

The premium charged for physical auctions you can appreciate to cover the free coffee like you say. For online auctions the premiums start to feel expensive. To assuage that I'd like to see them provide nice videos of the watches along with the photos. And perhaps a 3D image that the user can rotate.

 

Prices are similar to pre COVID19 pricing

 

Are you suggesting our watch collections are recession proof?

 

Thanks! I couldn't see prices before, I think I must have been too quick.
Interesting to see, and hear the opinions.
Anyone buy anything?

 

lol I’m not sure how to evaluate the results and it’s effect on the market or our collections but I do know these were not top examples (some with incorrect parts) but perhaps the average bidder gives auction houses, in any economy, more credit and confidence than they deserve

 

i think very strong prices for mediocre examples

have a zoom in on the dial of the big red or paul newman

i would go so far as to say those are pre-covid prices

they are doing another one for patek . . already tons of bids

 

patek auction here

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2020/watches-weekly-patek-philippe?locale=en

i guess the SS market isn't crashing after all. .only been up a few hours

 

As I mentioned in the other thread, the Franken ref 1655 (Lot #6) brought an outrageously high price. No way does a Mk1 dial go with a 8M serial number ... impossible.

Maybe there is a sitting-at-home-bored dynamic working against the recession dynamic.

 

People are moving money in tangible assets and stocks in fear that a recession might hit. We see this all over the place , some are buying stocks, art, cars, watches etc.

I really struggle with this statement.
How? They charge 25% buyers premium, and let’s say for the sake of argument (I know this fee is somewhat negotiable depending on the good to be auctioned) 15% sellers fee.
That’s 40% per Lot.

If we take for example their last live watch auction, as far as I can see that should have been „Important Watches“ from 11. December in New York last year.

They realized 7.9 million USD in total.

That equates to roughly 3.18 million USD (before taxes) for the auction house given a 40% take per lot.
What is their overhead?! If they „barely“ survive on that. And that’s from only one auction.

I can’t imagine that staff, location rental, security and catalog printing plus a small road show for the most important watches equates to such an amount?
Maybe I‘m totally off and naive.

Cheers,

Max

 

You know of many people that bought into stocks because they fear a violent recession is coming? Stocks would be the last thing I'd buy if I was fearful of a recession tbh
Cars and watches on the other hand why not, but at a discount to "pre-covid" prices, mainly due to the uncertainty of what the world will look like in 6 months...

 

I can imagine there are some very high costs to operating a "premium" auctioneers; both Sothebys and Christies in London are in very premium real estate locations, which is probably the same for all the other locations around the world, so rental costs will be very high especially as the buildings very large in terms of sq ft. Insurance costs and risks of holding high value items are probably going to be through the roof as well. Although once you take away the physical location and face to face expertise, what differentiates them from eBay, in their opinion probably brand loyalty. I guess as long as they manage to attract the collectors with the best examples to sell, they will continue attracting the buyers who are willing to pay the massive premium.

 

I should have clarified that stocks statement.
People are moving their money away from the bank accounts. For stocks , indexes etc it‘s very cheap to buy in right now and it may get even cheaper if the economy keeps tanking. People are afraid that we might get to the stage of hyper inflation, so while your stocks might recover (long term holding for at least 10 years) your money in the bank might be worth next to nothing if Inflation hits.


BTT:
I‘m aware of the high costs of premium real estate renting and insurence coverage but they don’t hold one or two auctions a year, they hold multiple Auctions a month.
Most of the auction houses raked in tons of money in the last years with prices rising for tangible assets (at least since 2008).
If they run (I can’t imagine that) on such a small Marging that they barely survive with the costs of their overhead than it was / is a massive miscalculation on their part, as would be with every other business. I don’t believe that these companies aren’t clever enough to avoid such a miscalculation.

 

Many unsold lots in the Bonhams online auction that just closed.

 

I am sure I saw quite a few of those lots at a local jumble sale. Didn’t sell there either.

 

Wow, that’s right, a lot of unsold items.

But then again also there where no really nice ones on offer in this auction either.

 

Bonhams is a joke and I don't think is anywhere near the Christies/Sothebys auction hierarchy.
I soured on them 10 years ago during the Haslinger Heuer auction and the constant crashing of their auction online.