I've had people try to mug me 4 times, one was successful, but two put me in the hospital. I've been robbed twice, lost watches (quite a few) in the second. Only ever had a watch taken off my wrist once, but that was by the least likely suspect - the cop who responded to the call of two guys trying to mug me in a parking lot. When I asked for my watch at the hospital after the tetanus shot - one guy had cut my hand but good - the nurse responded 'what watch'? Never was able to find out who that officer was, but I remember him remarking, 'huh, the James Bond watch' (a late 90s quartz SM)...I can only hope the battery leaked out after he got it!
Since then, I have given up on being over-cautious.