Community Stories

Signs of a recession - expectations for vintage prices? (e.g., speedies, other blue chippers)

aj_tucker
Posts
39
Likes
88
Hey kind folks of OF,

Murmurs of a recession loom - obviously there are bigger things in life to worry about during such a time, but I'm curious this group's opinion on the prices for vintage speedies / other blue chip watches as well.

Here's my take: prices for blue-chip vintage watches (e.g., subs, speedies, GMTs, daytonas) will fall slightly (max 20%) but will recover in the medium term and continue to appreciate in the long term. Why? A few reasons:

- Constricted supply: they aren't making new watches from 50s / 60s / 70s (or any other decade).
- Educated and affluent buyers and sellers: I suspect people who are spending ~$10-20k are savvy enough and capable of withstanding a 2-3 year recession, knowing selling their goods would be at a loss.
- Stronger than ever demand, that could sustain: The demand curve for vintage pieces has shifted right: Asian populates covet luxury goods and the population numbers are staggering. The rise of social media (who here has a over 10k insta following??)
- History suggests luxury is more apt to handle a recession than one might anticipate (https://www.ft.com/content/e319c5f3-126e-3814-912c-00695d3ff3c4).

This consideration applies in a world in a 'normal' recession. In a world of a global financial meltdown (i.e., greater than 2008), anything is fair game.

Thoughts?

P.S. basically, I'm lusting after a vintage Speedy 😀
 
WatchCor
Posts
733
Likes
1,457
what I've understood from the last few auctions is that I think we're already seeing a "slowing" of the vintage speedy market. Although top pieces do still go for a premium and quickly, normal ,used and even (only) good condition speedys are more difficult to move/sell.

So I would tend to agree on your assumption that some depreciation might occur in a (standard) recession.I dont think that the high end pieces will be affected in any way though
 
Walrus
Posts
10,888
Likes
53,863
Ya I was just listening to one of the Bloomberg analysts and they were saying luxury goods are expected to slow down. Everything is cyclical it’ll be ok in the end. I hope new speedies grip down to a few hundred bucks for a day or two so I can load up.
 
The Father
Posts
2,810
Likes
14,885
guess I would buy a watch before a German Bond.

Not that there is anything wrong with being German.
 
nonuffinkbloke
Posts
2,170
Likes
5,730
Maybe not everyone who owns a $10k plus watch is financially strong enough to ride out a few tough years?
 
aj_tucker
Posts
39
Likes
88
nonuffinkbloke nonuffinkbloke
Maybe not everyone who owns a $10k plus watch is financially strong enough to ride out a few tough years?

Probably not everyone, agreed. So, there may be some finds - just a matter of if enough supply to augment a neutered demand. Who knows?
 
The Father
Posts
2,810
Likes
14,885
There are people on OF with $10K watches that...……….well anyway...….
 
Taddyangle
Posts
4,882
Likes
31,883
Who knows how long one could weight if they plan to buy on the dip. I get it, but I think buying a watch is more like buying a home. When you buy a home you don't really account for prices going down at some point in future, you figure you are in it for the long haul and prices going down or up do not really factor in the purchase decision. Basically you are looking for what you want to meet your needs at a fair price.



upload_2019-8-20_15-35-37.png
 
nonuffinkbloke
Posts
2,170
Likes
5,730
aj_tucker aj_tucker
Probably not everyone, agreed. So, there may be some finds - just a matter of if enough supply to augment a neutered demand. Who knows?

The notes on the Speedmaster101 price chart are always as interesting as the prices:

(Quote from SM101) "The lowering of interest in sub par watches has continued, but the prices and interest in correct attractive examples remains." (End of quote)

Well (on the bright side for sellers of "correct, attractive examples") there will probably still be one or two keen enthusiasts knocking about who, despite recession, wouldn't notice if $10k fell out of their arse pocket.😕

I'm on the hunt for a natural, single cutaway, resonator guitar at the moment. I'm not a wealthy guy, but I will find the money for the right guitar. Recession or no recession, if the right one comes up, I want it now.🥰

Some of us are too old to hang about for 5 years waiting for prices to rise or fall.😲...........😁
Edited:
 
JwRosenthal
Posts
16,305
Likes
45,004
I think when we get a hard dip like we did in the late 80's, late 90's and again in the late 00's, it's generally new luxury goods that take the hard dip- not the vintage collector pieces like most of us are talking about. The newer high dollar watches, purchased with new money- think most of Rolex's client base- will take the hardest hit. All of the aforementioned dips were prime time for picking up a Presidential, Submariner, GMT or a newish Porsche or BMW on the cheap...I remember well.

The vintage consumer pool will shrink as the new money hobbyists will have less discretionary income, so there will have to be some impact on the hobby just from a lessening of demand.
 
leepxy
Posts
70
Likes
97
I think the concept of "hype" seen in sneakers exists within watches as well. There's a general trend of people gravitating towards vintage as a channel to acquire pieces that would be difficult for someone to walk into a store and buy off a shelf. For the most part, I think this way of thinking/feeling of exclusivity is going to stay since a timepiece is one of the few pieces of "jewelry" that a man can wear to express himself.
 
Dgercp
Posts
1,072
Likes
1,482
Recession aside, I feel vintage watch enthusiasm has waned recently. The fad for old watches has slowed and the non- stop social media vintage watch hype has saturated our brains a bit. "Likes" on IG watch posts has fallen( imo) over the last year. A lasting recession can only further dampen vintage prices, for all levels of quality.

Then again, I'm a life long pessimist 😀
 
Braindrain
Posts
777
Likes
1,380
Dgercp Dgercp
Recession aside, I feel vintage watch enthusiasm has waned recently. The fad for old watches has slowed and the non- stop social media vintage watch hype has saturated our brains a bit. "Likes" on IG watch posts has fallen( imo) over the last year. A lasting recession can only further dampen vintage prices, for all levels of quality.

Then again, I'm a life long pessimist 😀

Great. Better pricing for the rest of us.

And, btw, I agree.
 
Unfamiliar_Moon
Posts
222
Likes
431
All the hipsters have moved to Casio. It's more wallet friendly than a bauhaus or vintage piece.
That's gotta have an impact, yeah?
 
Sign up or log in to reply...