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Should I wait for the next financial crisis/market correction before pulling the trigger?

  1. ekel Jun 28, 2017

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  2. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jun 28, 2017

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    How many watches left the U.K. After the Brexit vote???
     
  3. khanmu Jun 28, 2017

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    In my experience it's been less about a market correction and more about exchange rates (although the two are linked). Since the post-Brexit drop in the UK Pound against the Euro and USD, I've been selling many more watches (and other stuff) outside the Uk than I used to..conversely, buying abroad has become more expensive, although the US still seems to have relative price advantage...
     
  4. Gstp Jun 28, 2017

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    Sometimes it is wise to do a bit of critical thinking. Who is sending the message, what is their intention, do the message serve their interest in any way and so on.
     
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  5. mr_yossarian Jun 28, 2017

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    As far as I can see, "market correction" means nothing more than a flat line for a moment, not a significant drop. And if many decide like you the consequences will be the same as ever when demand meets the given supply.
     
  6. Rumar89 Jun 28, 2017

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    FWIW, technically a correction is defined as a 10% or greater movement, usually a drawdown, in the market.
     
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  7. Rumar89 Jun 28, 2017

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  8. propervinyl Jun 28, 2017

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    Arguments about the definition and likelihood of a correction aside, I am very interested to hear the perspective of longer term collectors about what happened to watch prices and availability during the financial crisis.

    I remember prices shot way up after the "Omegamania" auction in like 2007, but what happened when the bottom fell out in 2008? And did it impact vintage?

    Oh what I would do for a dataset...
     
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  9. mr_yossarian Jun 28, 2017

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    technically and academically, but I don't see this in the crazy real market for Speedies :)
     
    Rumar89 likes this.
  10. mr_yossarian Jun 28, 2017

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    Smart guy, keeping you out off the market now :)
     
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  11. watchknut New watch + Instagram + wife = dumbass Jun 28, 2017

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    No matter what happens in the market, collector grade examples will always hold their value.

    Market corrections usually gut the middle market, meaning those watches with condition issues or lesser known brands.

    Your rock solid performers, for the most part, will be safe. Collectors will still buy, but will only focus on the great stuff. The crap drops like a rock and is hard to move as the more cost conscious collectors are impacted.
     
    George.A, kov, blubarb and 7 others like this.
  12. mr_yossarian Jun 28, 2017

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    An important point.
     
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  13. Gstp Jun 28, 2017

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    I would double and triple check that advice with your hairdresser and the local butcher, if I were you
     
  14. Rumar89 Jun 28, 2017

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    So I do and don't agree with this: bare with me while I explain my rationale.

    The factors driving the watch market are essentially identical to those that drive fine art sales, collectible cars, etc. To some extent, the low interest rate environment that has been fostered by central banks has led to asset price inflation across all of these markets. With the U.S. Fed now entering into a tightening cycle, consumers are likely in the future to have less discretionary income to devote to these kinds of assets and their relative appeal compared to other asset classes diminishes.

    In a recession, in contrast, demand is squeezed as buyers exit the market and those that remain become more selective about what they buy. Additionally, supply may very well increase as people are forced to raise cash. In response, prices are likely to fall in general, although the most collectible and nicest condition pieces are likely to see less of a decline.

    Interesting article below about art sales at Christies and Sotheby's during the Great Recession.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/...ies-as-the-recession-hits-the-art-market.html

    Edited to note the potential for an increase in forced sellers during a recession.
     
    Edited Jun 28, 2017
  15. Rumar89 Jun 28, 2017

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    IMG_0568.PNG
     
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  16. Gstp Jun 28, 2017

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    You are referring to your watchmakers opinion on what you should do with your money I guess.
     
  17. Rumar89 Jun 28, 2017

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    Theirs, and yours and mine too. All is a universally encompassing term.
     
  18. kkt Jun 28, 2017

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    Yeah, the market for buyers should improve in a recession, but if you can accurately predict when that will be you'd be working at a much higher pay grade than I am. Also you have to consider the possibility that the recession would affect you and you might no longer be in the market to buy watches.
     
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  19. ac106 Jun 28, 2017

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    @Tony C. has strong feelings about the economy. maybe he will chime in
     
  20. propervinyl Jun 28, 2017

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    Respectfully, I think OP was asking more about the impact on our hobby, less on economy generally. Only mentioning this because I am very interested in what happened in 08-09.
     
    ekel likes this.