I joined this forum three years ago, and even back then, there was talk of the Speedmaster Bubble. "Can't buy one now, they're too inflated."

Guess what? When you said that in 2013, the prices have already jumped significantly. They can't go on like this forever, right? So, what could get them to taper off?

What's comparable in the market? The Rolex Daytonas/pre-Daytonas. 6238's are around $28,000, screw-down varieties above 30K.

The naysayers: "The Speedmasters will never get into that price catagory." Really? 321 caliber as good as the Valjoux 27 variants, aesthetics equal if not better, and superior history. I think the big jump will continue with 2998, 105.003, and the cal. 321 Bombe-case models.

So if you think they're pricey now...

 

When the boys who grew up with Ed White or Neil Armstrong as their heroes have themselves departed this planet, the Speedmaster will have seen its peak. I know pros in the estate sales business, and they tell me this is pretty much the way it is with all collectibles. Meanwhile, enjoy.

 

Respectfully disagree. The history is but one aspect of this watch that makes it desirable. It's got many other attractive qualities to keep interest afloat.

 

^^^this exactly... it's not like the speedy has a face that only a mother could love [emoji7]


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I was not around during the era of the Gemini/Apollo but I was a kid who loved Space, I have many friends who also love NASA history.

That being said I believe there is some truth to the statement, but I believe that people will always value a quality watch with a lot of history to it.

 

Unless the Speedy's mother's name is Dennis.

Talkin' about bereft of love ...

 

I don't consider them "collectibles" in that sense. I know there has been a lot of talk about a bubble, and I have found this a great read about how one came about and burst...

http://www.economist.com/news/chris...-classic-financial-mania-baseball-card-bubble

Although I see some parallels in watches, there are still quite a few differences.

Cheers, Al

 

Generally, I completely agree with your statement (meant early Speedmasters, though?). The prices hardly reflect the quality difference between brands with similar movements - heck, you can pick up a Valjoux 27 movement in many chronos way cheaper than an early Daytona.

Here's the rub: many early Rolex chronographs (6234, 6238 for example) suffer from many of the same dial issues that Rolexes, and other high-end brands for that matter from the late 50's and early 60's, suffer from: the dials degrade because the lacquer top-coat is either now drying up or fracturing. Then, moisture seems to get under the paint layer, the base metal tarnishes or corrodes, and you end up with tiny dial blisters. Thus, to find a pristine dial with these references are getting harder and harder to find. Plus, you have to be a little respectful of sun, moisture and temperatures changes if you own one, so you don't accelerate the process.

I find many of the early Speedmaster dials more robust - there are just more examples around where the dials are still excellent, regardless of the luminous issues, which many sport watches have. So, in that regard, yes, I think that when your investment is likely to survive better over time, and it will likely keep its attractiveness with less care and worry, then this is, indeed, a better watch, all other things roughly equal.

 

I think we can find a good parallel with air cooled 911's. We are seeing a market correction with a small bubble on common/average examples due to the Halo effect of exceptional models.

There was no question they had been under valued for years. They have almost tripled in the last 10 years. They have everything going for them, made in low numbers, great parts availability, robustly built with a classic design and good lucks.

The Speedy had history, and was undervalued vs other contemporary chronos. Not to mention one of the better looking chronos out there, another classic design.

I think we are at the top end of both and eventually see a small drop in the more run of the mill examples like the 145.022 and early 80's SC's. The top of the line like pre 70 911's and RS /RSR will stay at the premium price range like the early model Speedmasters.

 

The fact we're talking about a bubble to me says it all. As with any "investment" what goes up, comes down. Speedmasters haven't had a price adjustment yet, I can guarantee this, one is coming....it's not a matter of if, but when. No one has a crystal ball to predict it, but we know they've been on a Saturn VI like accent which is not sustainable. Of course, everyone will have differing opinions on this, which makes it an interesting read. Also, I have witnessed this phenomenon with vintage Rolexes. They have gone through a few of these cycles with a few models (1655 & Red Subs.)

Bottom line for me, I'm fully expecting an adjustment at some point which is why I'm on the sideline watching with a curious eye.

 

Anyone get the feeling those constantly talking about upcoming "bubbles" didn't pull the trigger in 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011..................................................................... ?

 

I was born in 1977 - several years after the last moon landing. And a Speedmaster has been my grail watch for as long as I've been interested in watches - a little over a decade or so. The appeal and fascination with Speedmasters isn't going anywhere. The price of watches already has no bearing or relationship to their cost to manufacture. I mean does anyone here really think that it costs Omega more than $200 to actually make a modern Speedmaster?

There are definitely categories of collectibles where their popularity has waned in the last few decades. Comic books and baseball cards don't have the same appeal they once did. There are the "bubble" collectibles like cookie jars where they shot up in popularity and then crashed.

I don't foresee the same thing for watches any time soon - not to say it won't ever happen, but it's not something we will see soon unless there is an overarching global crisis that makes things like collecting watches trite.

 

Ah, the fearful BUBBLE. Well, how big a bubble, and how big a burst. Way more important in my mind is the long term trend.
Think of a sine wave moving in the Northeast direction. I don't mind the mini bubble bursts as long as over the long haul value trends upward.
I feel good about 321 speedmasters when looked at from this perspective.

 

Is this like Beettlejuice? Saying it 3 times will make it real sort of a thing?

 

Yes. I think it definitely costs more than $200. Just the acquisition/ carrying costs related to the factory/ assembly space probably cost close to that.

 

With all this bubble bursting talk.......if one does happen.......we'll all be sitting there saying, "Yeah, like I was going to sell my Speedies anyway.