Either my powers of observation have become dimmer over the past 3-4 months, or the supply of nice UGs hitting the market in usual channels (eBay, reputable dealers, auctions) has slowed down recently. Has anyone noticed the same thing? Maybe supply has shifted into the hands of collectors who are less willing to trade / flip? Also makes it more difficult to determine price trends when examples simply aren't trading publicly anymore.

 

I'd say the latter. You will need to pony up.

 

UG isn't the only one, but, as you suggest, the causes aren't so clear. I believe that you will find an increasing number of buyers who were hoping to flip at a profit have begun to hold. That is because the bubble – and yes, it's a bubble – may have peaked. This dynamic is very well known in the Real Estate business, and when short-term, profit-seeking buyers begin to capitulate to a down market, look out below.

 

I can only speak for myself, but I have settled into my two Compaxes (Evil Nina / Nina) and two Polerouter Subs. I may sell one of the Subs eventually, but as to the other two, I love them and won't sell them any time soon (if ever). So I guess it's trying to parse out if I'm emblematic of the broader universe, or if there are other forces at work.

 

I've seen quite a few Subs for sale! At least 2 per month. But yes, there's less out there and virtually no deals to be had when you do find something you like

 

Ever since I started really getting into watches, and developing an interest in vintage chronographs in particular, all I've wanted is a nice UG Compax. But as an outsider looking in (i.e. a non-UG owner, without the funds to be one at this moment in time), I agree with your assessments. It seems like there really aren't that many great examples out there. And when people find that beautiful Tri-Compax or Aero-Compax or Nina, it becomes a permanent part of their collection precisely because they are so rare. Collectors just don't seem to flip UG's like they do other watch brands because nothing ever comes up that can beat what they have. This is in stark contrast to something like the Speedmaster market, where great examples come up for sale all the time because people are flipping them for something better (whether it's upgrading to a 105.012 from a 145.022, or to a 2998 from a 105.012, etc.).

 

In the last two months I have had multiple opportunities to purchase some very nice examples. These are not coming from e-bay and they are not "bargains". If I was made of money, I'd have bought them all. I've bid on two watches on e-bay for parts on behalf of an EU member and we've been stunned at the final number. So yes the market is frothy and yes the good stuff is in safes.

 

Very few "original "dial UG 's on the bay for a long time ? A completely original example of many UG models is difficult to find and expensive ! And if you find it, you have to go through laborious measures ( payment, paypal, tracking language barriers, condition of item, etc.. I think I'm probably not going to buy much, I have some leeway because I have a couple extra original Tri-compax dials
Hands are difficult for me. The last time I tried buy UG hands ( from a french dealer)
it turned into an absolute nightmare !!! So if you dont have spare parts ( original dials, orginal hands etc..) then your probably going to overpay for what your getting.

 

I second that.

However parts are becoming available. Lots of crowns and dials coming up for auctions these days.

 

Cases too. Been wondering why these parts are suddenly surfacing.

 

I see the most coming up through IG. Then you see them surface on other people's IG's. They are all basically being bought and sold through Instagram in my opinion, unfortunately prices seem to be set for dealers and not collectors or people who just want to wear them. For instance, not UG but i got quoted €4000 for a Benrus Sky Chief the other day! €4000! Now, i have one already which i got off the bay for £500. it's sad people think they can charge that. All the examples on Ebay (im talking 40's era UG's) are mostly rubbish. I think there are three 287's on the bay now that are just disgusting (redial wise).

There was an original 287 dial on the bay a few weeks ago i think. the only one i've seen in a while.

 

I agree supply is very scarse but honestly, that is not going to change anytime soon. Especially for pieces in great and original conditions. I 100% believe that the surge of UG is just at the beginning, at least for theirs 30s/40s stuff. The 50s or even worse 60s instead I agree is somewhat overvalued, but that also is not going to come down anytime soon, it will probably just stabilise.
If anything I believe their earlier stuff will catch up pricing wise to their later stuff (IMHO it should even go higher, that is where they were excellent and at almost par with the holy trinity and way superior to Rolex). BUT, and it is a big BUT, the key is conditions: the delta in pricing between even identical examples but in different conditions/originality will continue to rise, a lot.
This is true of any vintage watch out there, but I feel it will be even truer of UG from 30s/40s, just because there are a lot of UG from that era but very very few in all-original and good to excellent conditions and they are finally getting the attention they deserve.

 

I've seen a few amazing condition models pop up on IG recently, with amazing price tags attached. IMO priced too strong, but for collectors desperate to get their hands on a minty example still within reach.

 

A lot of good points. I've wanted a 40's/50's UG chrono for years, but condition never lines up with price, in my opinion. Take for example an Aero-Compax that I tried on a couple weeks ago in Paris at Romain Rea. It was stunningly beautiful, in perfect condition, and was the particular model that I would love to own. The catch? It's priced at $21K USD.

 

That's really interesting and frustrating at the same time for someone looking to get into UG. I reached the same conclusion you have regarding Ebay a while ago... seems like there are always "compaxes" and the like for sale but they are always terrible. I'm curious how one can keep tabs on Instagram sales like this? I can't say I've ever really seen any UGs on IG, so I'm clearly following the wrong people. Do people hashtag #universalgeneve when they are selling?

 

Romain Rea...Do they not have a mixed reputation here? Anyway I am always amazed at these roached out Aero that command 5-10Euro and up. I've given up on them. 21K ...must have been almost NOS?

 

Even when they are not... The only way to discover content not from your followers is via hashtags. It's a nice place to see good watches, even if most are not for sale. Obviously the content is nowhere near as good as here.

 

It was very, very nice

 

Yep ... NFW!!!!!!!!

Not many like this around.

 

Contre-Temps, rue du Bac (Jean Yves Vergara) had a stunning 1940s Tri Compax for 6K in the fall, not sure whether he sold it since.
It was spotless and supposedly came from a big UG collector.