Once in my lifetime buying opportunity (I was too young in 1985) or is it a bear trap and something more permanent?

My personal opinion is buy all you can but I'd love to hear different ideas and opinions.

 

I'm no economist but I think the £ is goosed for the foreseeable.

Not until we've left the EU and the market knows what the exit deal will be will it recover. That's a few years away at least.

That assumes Scotland doesn't vote for independence meantime - in which case God only knows what'll happen to it.

 

It really depends on the outcome of your election next month. If I were you I would wait a month or so before rushing in.

 

Head to Vegas instead.

You'll have much more fun and at least an equal (and arguably better) chance of a good financial outcome vs. investing in currency right now.

 

If the pound hits parity I am buying.
Why?
Because I watched my father do it the last time, and history seems to repeat itself.
Ok he bought at 1.03 so not truly parity, but he filled his boots, with real money not a derivative, and while it scared the hell out of me at the time, I watched it climb over time to 2:1.
That said we were in a $ denominated buisiness but I have never forgotten it.

 

Days are very different and nothing certain. What will happen in the middle east with ramifications all around the world nobody knows. We are living in a dangerous world. I'd not take any risk with currencies anywhere. Just my 2 cents..

 

It doesn't feel like the bottom here, too much uncertainty ahead which could lead to further overnight drops. Having said that, its super low, I'm buying bits and bobs not investing the farm. Will accumulate more as and if it carries on lower.

 

Agree its not at bottom

 

The current change in the pound, suddenly make purchases more in line with US prices..

 

In my view, speculating in paper these days is extremely dangerous. In fact, I believe that over the coming years, hard assets will prove far preferable.

There was a contributor to several economics sites a while back whose screen name was Two Short Planks, and he produced what I consider to be an excellent summary analysis and warning on this very topic. Here it is:

“Over the last few months I’ve tried to nail-down an underlying reality, a meaning, the ‘nature’, of both physical Gold and Fiat Currencies. Neither are obvious to the average person, and there are many, many versions as to what they both are, depending upon which camp you are in (Trader, Economist, Politician, PM Bug, Investor, Mum & Dad, Business Owner, Banker, Wanker, Central Planner, etc, etc).

My reasoning for trying to identify this is simple; I have not been overly comfortable with what the majority of people on this forum, as well as other sectors, have declared them to be.

Not knowing the true nature of Gold and Currencies manifests into a failure to understand the relationships both have in the real world. Add to that a deficiency in understanding them as a financial tool and/or investment.

I would like to share with you what I’ve come up with…and I’ve kept them simple.

CAVEAT: I refer to currencies in a general sense, not one in particular, and not one in relation to another. I do not refer to any Gold Derivatives.

Fiat Currencies are Derivatives
. Since the abolition of the Gold Standard, Fiat Currencies have become a Derivative; as they are traded in the open market they point to an economy of origin, they point to that country’s Bond and Treasury Bills, and they point to the ‘Balance Sheet’ of that country’s Central Bank. Destroy the Bonds, Treasuries, Economy or Balance Sheet and you destroy the Fiat Currency as well. This was not necessarily the case when Currencies were backed by Gold and/or conformed to a Gold Standard, as the underlying value was preserved within the physical Gold…Currencies were indeed a ‘Claim Cheque’.

Gold has two lives (Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde); it spends most of its live as perpetual Commodity, but every now and then it becomes ‘Flux Money’. We all know its Dr Jekyll manifestation as a metal and traded commodity, so there’s no need to elaborate on that. In its Mr Hyde manifestation (Flux Money) it phases in and out of favour throughout history under certain conditions. When things are going well Gold is almost hated for its lack of return performance and cost of storage, but when things deteriorate, that's when Gold comes out of psychological hiding. When wealth moves into Gold for safety, by virtue of its demand, it becomes the vessel of choice. Once this starts to happen, a bottle-neck appears as more and more wealth converges upon a finite Gold supply. Demand forces the value of Gold upward and this is precisely when Gold recaptures its reputation and all of the ill feelings as a non-returning commodity are forgiven. I believe the reason Gold has this ability, this power, is simple; it’s etched into the psyche of every society since every society has historically been through dark times. Also, as the saying goes “there no such thing as an atheist in a fox hole”, well, there’s no such thing as a Paper Bug in a [global] Collapse, whether that be Deflation, hyperinflation or societal.

In simple terms, Currencies are derivatives which relate to the modern economy, and Gold is both a permanent commodity and occasional safe storage.

If you can relate to this, then you can proceed with the $64,000 question; where are Currencies going and where is Gold going?

So really, the answer to this question – since currencies are a derivative – relates directly to the actions of Central Banks, Government Treasuries, and Global Consumers.

And what are we seeing? Central Bank balance sheet expansion, Government Treasury Ponzi schemes, and a protracted contraction of Global Consumption.

If you believe Central Banks will keep printing, Governments will keep Deficit Spending, and Global Consumers are on the edge, then Gold will come out of flux and solidify back into money once again.

Those who defy their intuition, those who defy the psyche of the market, will burn in a paper bonfire, should the current path be defended and this erosion continue.”

 

Hey, I just wanted to send a general shoutout to all my omegaforum homies who gave me solid advice here.

This forum has a lot of smart, savvy and economically literate folks who tend to be...single minded? Lol - let's just call it "weaponized autism". I don't know if you realize how sophisticated some of you are (and, stingy tehehehe )

I had bought some £'s @ 119ish around the time I posted this thread and when she rallied a bit to 124ish, I kicked her all out. I would not have sold if not for your advice...

Now the £ is back down to 119ish and I'll start easing in again - hopefully will catch a fade down to like 115 (maybe lower?)

Whatever I pick up this time, I plan on holding for a while.

Thanks all

 

This one ^

 

^ this one too

 

Glad it has worked out so far. I've been doing similar, adding more at 1.21/1.22 and selling those at 1.25/1.26.

Article 50 expected to be triggered this week, so I'm expecting further weakness until this clears out. I'm still slowly accumulating more which I intend to hold for the long term.

 

I agree

 

$$$$ has recently been hot garbage

£ has been FIRE

 

If the £ is down more people from outside UK will buy from UK so maybe it's a economical strategy..

 

When The Cathedral was so uniformly in agreement that Brexit was basically the end of GPB, that was a really good contra indication the £ was a screaming buy.

The Administrative and Grad School class is really too arrogant (and, ironically ignorant...).

 

Do you understand the fundamentals of investing in currency, and of the currency in question? If you need to ask a bunch of folks on the internet about it, well, there's your answer.

 

huh?