So I was perusing a dealers website and I found a Speedmaster Yemen matching mine, the price appears to have gone up about $500 in the past 6 months about 18%. Sure its not a common watch and could be a market aberration, but I got mine thinking that the attractive dial combo, slightly smaller size(40mm), and short production run might make it go up.

I think most of us agree that peak watch size has occurred (even if Omega disagrees) and we are starting to trend into smaller watches. With Speedy Pro's being so hot right now and still the number 2 search on eBay what do you guys think might be something that will see a popularity increase over the next 12 months?

Heuers esp the Autavias, started spiking just before the announcement of the re-release, and other vintage Chronos are on a nice upward rise that will end, who knows when.

Personally I think we might start to see a rise in prices of some of the non moon watch speedies. We have almost a perfect storm brewing on these as the Moonwatches continue to rise and new buyers and collectors will be looking to acquire their first Speedmaster or broaden their existing collection with something different or at a slightly better pricepoint.

So what do you guys think? What trends or even watches are you going to call out as hidden gems that will be "found" over the next year.


Since threads are worthless without pictures, my "Yemen."

 

Vintage watches are getting more press, and as more people 'discover' them the prices will rise. It's been that way for the past 5 or 6 years.

 

You still have good values in Omega, JLC, Longines, Iwc on the models that haven't reached rock star status. Think about how under appreciated Constellations are outside of this community...
When the non-wis man starts wearing 34-36mm watches again uncomplicated daily wear pieces from these brands will absolutely leap in value.
Im betting on yellow gold too.

 

The only prediction I can make with any kind of certainty, is that my very small and humble group of watches is likely to be joined by another piece within the next 12 months... And if I had to make a more detailed prediction, it would be that a Tudor Heritage Black Bay Red is the most likely candidate (not vintage).

For other vintage, I suspect like many other things, prices will keep climbing until they stop doing so. I do not believe the current slow growth in the economy will continue forever (since it never has in the past), and when it eventually reverses course and we get the next recession, I strongly suspect watches will be sold at prices below where they are today.


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I think all the buzz around Space X, Moon Express and renewed interest around space exploration should continue pushing Speedy Pros- both modern and vintage.

Other than that, I think that more broadly speaking watches with strong "experience/past" should also see continued interest: for example dirty dozens, enicar sherpas.
Design-wise, I feel like JLC vintage may not be THAT enticing to the new 20-30 yo customer.

The Asian customer, (and by that I mean Chinese) will probably flock back to modern watches from strong brand names (Rolex, AP) once the political backlash on corruption fades. You don't obliterate hundreds of year of "guanxi" business culture with 5 years of hardline repression.

Last point, I also think that you may have to differentiate trends per zone, ie US vs Europe as some vintage trends seem to be stronger than others across the globe.

 

I don't think there will be any significant change in watch trends.

sizes will remain 42mm +

the vintage market will remain locked into the cycle of boom and boom again (as we're seeing with ANY SS chrono larger than 36mm)

I'm surprised we haven't seen tanks/squares slip more prominently into the market.

.02c deposited

 

I will add that as long as there is disposable income, prices will rise. The amount of disposable income depends on the economic health of the world.

 

I agree, as long as consumer confidence continues to rise and the market in general remains calm, prices will rise....this can all change come November.