http://www.hodinkee.com/articles/bring-a-loupe-jauary-1-2016

$13,600....

Waiting for my comment to be approved : "Re the Speedy - it's not so much that the bezel is scratched - it's the wrong one. Should be a DON ( Dot over 90 ) for this reference. This was probably a service replacement, and it looks like the hands were done at the same time or even later, as they look too new for this watch. Recent price increases notwithstanding, this is a very strong price for this particular watch, in my opinion"

 

DON bezels are so 2015.

This is the year of the DNN bezel!!

 

To sell this as an "issued watch" is also a bit exaggerated, the EES was the US equivalent of the british NAAFI.

 

That pricing seems quite ambitous, even if it had the correct bezel and a fresh service (which it doesn't).

 

Please do not be surprised: you might also see a further price increase.
A bubble tends to deviate from the intrinsic value very sharply It is generally a condition in which prices appear, as you point out, on implausible requests and inconsistent views about the future.
However, as economists say, bubbles can be identified only in retrospect, when a catastrophic drop in prices appears. Given the current market action, prices will probably fluctuate erratically and there will be many more attempts to justify them from supply and demand.

 

Looks like the articles been updated because it now states "The first thing you might notice in this picture is the scratched replacement bezel"

 

Ha! Now it makes recommending this watch look even more questionable...

 

Traveler--so glad you called them out. I am surprised they didn't link to their article stating that a Speidel Twist I Flex would be the perfect match for this watch.

What a joke...

 

Might as well be titled, "Bring a Poupe" with the crap they are peddling.

So many aspiring collectors look at Hodinkee as the beacon of watch collecting as if they invented the concept.

At $13.5k, I have a have an over polished, replacement dial, hands and bezel 105.012 that will gladly sell you at 1/2 the value!!!

A fool and their money...

 

people - when talking about bubbles - seem to forget one condition "sine qua non" for bubbles to form: which is - a bubble MUST be credit/debt fueled to be a bubble ... just like in 2007/08 the fact that it was debt financed MADE people sell their properties, because their commercial value fell below the threshold of where the pawn would cover the credit and people went underwater.

if you do not have anything credit/debt financed, the fact that prices for certain watches might level out or even decline by 10% - could not really bother you - nobody would oblige you to sell it at 95... that's just the ups and downs of markets ... there are no markets that only move in one direction. But if you bought a watch with cash 5 yrs. ago and now it goes from index 100 to 95 why would you sell it?

so, imho in the watch market we might (or might not) see some sort of consolidations of price levels (Daytona, anyone?) but not a bubble where prices will fall 30-50% ACROSS THE BOARD.

Again: the main difference between housing and watch collecting: DEBT fueled vs. CASH fueled

 

If that 105.012 is worth $13.5k then my 145.012 with the correct DON and signed warranty papers must be worth $25k! Any offers?

 

I saw that recommendation and audibly scoffed. They didn't even mention the CB case, which is the most unique part! Plus, the case is quite polished. The facets are visible, but the whole thing looks to be overpolished. Is it nicer than many others I've seen on eBay in the past few months? Ummm, sure. But $13.5K? Pfft.

Also important to remember that while that's what he's asking, it's not necessarily what he'll accept.

 

This is an extremely well written post, and completely agree. The concept that the "bubble" will pop and prices across the board will crash catastrophically is...well...far fetched, IMO. Market correction could occur in the foreseeable future (I agree about Daytonas), but I'm hard pressed to believe it will be all encompassing for every brand/reference/etc.

 

There goes my hope for a minty and all-correct '62 Speedmaster for less than $4k. :-(

 

For that, I'd recommend a time machine. And if you get one, please let me know.

 

What about my Beanie Babies? They were supposed to pay for my son's education!