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Originally about tariffs and watches ... now just political rambling

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Wlcutter
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Mtek Mtek
You can have hard power and not start unnecessary wars. The soft power hasn’t exactly worked in our favor either, and the current admin is being very effective with marketing it as a failure. There is no magic bullet.

I'm in the US, and have followed this discussion since it started.

@Mtek: with absolutely no disprespect or criticism or anything, I guess I'm curious why you think soft power hasn't exactly worked in our favor. One of the big drivers (supposedly) of the president's decision to suspect tariffs by 90 days was the bond market's sudden weakening. While the US has been the international currency of choice for many hard power/economic reasons, it feels like an oversight to pretend the soft power we've expended hasn't been fairly essential in establishing and maintaining our position globally. I'd love to know your thoughts, truly.

As far as the rest: clearly the US needs to do many things to push back against the declines we face. I was born in 1978; in my lifetime, offshoring blew up, insurance/finance industries as a % of total GDP went from 4.9% in 1980 to 7.3% in 2023, and the US went from having 25 tax brackets to less than a quarter of that (w the top rate then being 70%). Seems like there are lots of things to address.
 
Mtek
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Wlcutter Wlcutter
I'm in the US, and have followed this discussion since it started.

@Mtek: with absolutely no disprespect or criticism or anything, I guess I'm curious why you think soft power hasn't exactly worked in our favor. One of the big drivers (supposedly) of the president's decision to suspect tariffs by 90 days was the bond market's sudden weakening. While the US has been the international currency of choice for many hard power/economic reasons, it feels like an oversight to pretend the soft power we've expended hasn't been fairly essential in establishing and maintaining our position globally. I'd love to know your thoughts, truly.

As far as the rest: clearly the US needs to do many things to push back against the declines we face. I was born in 1978; in my lifetime, offshoring blew up, insurance/finance industries as a % of total GDP went from 4.9% in 1980 to 7.3% in 2023, and the US went from having 25 tax brackets to less than a quarter of that (w the top rate then being 70%). Seems like there are lots of things to address.

You bring up some very good points. I think I laid out some of my opinions earlier, and state again there is no magic bullet. Right now, it’s really hard to justify soft power spending as tax paying citizens are struggling to pay rent for shack, next to a homeless encampment. The squalor in our cities has grown astronomical since you were born.
 
CalgaryJim
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Starting to remind me of a political thread on a popular Canadian watch forum, it got to the point where the owner locked down the thread to avoid further animosity amongst people who really should be talking about watches, not politics.
 
paddymoran
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Quite a bit of discussion on hard and soft power and what is/ has been/ can be more effective. Being in a position of power brings huge responsibility. How that power is wielded (be it soft or hard) has a significant impact on other people across the globe - it’s also judged by others and influences their responses and actions (can be subliminal). The leadership of too many powerful countries at this time only seem interested in themselves. As a European I find this pretty depressing. I’d like to think we generally stand for common decency and the common good.
 
Dsloan
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Looks like the smaller brands that produce many of their parts and/or whole watches in China are reacting to tariffs. Christopher Ward announced price hikes.
 
texasmade
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Mtek Mtek
You bring up some very good points. I think I laid out some of my opinions earlier, and state again there is no magic bullet. Right now, it’s really hard to justify soft power spending as tax paying citizens are struggling to pay rent for shack, next to a homeless encampment. The squalor in our cities has grown astronomical since you were born.
I would say that's less of a problem from soft power and more due to Reagan's trickle down economics. At this point, it's been a failure but the current administration wants to push through another giant tax cut for the rich.
 
Mtek
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texasmade texasmade
I would say that's less of a problem from soft power and more due to Reagan's trickle down economics. At this point, it's been a failure but the current administration wants to push through another giant tax cut for the rich.

I disagree, the current admin is hitting the elite the hardest. I mean, look at the stock market, then look at inflation.
 
texasmade
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Mtek Mtek
I disagree, the current admin is hitting the elite the hardest. I mean, look at the stock market, then look at inflation.
The elites can afford to lose million$ or billion$. They're never going to lose their homes or die poor.

The avg ppl who have their retirement tied up in 401k and IRA's, small business owners, and regular workers are going to be hit harder. There are only a few elites but lots of average and above average who are going to be screwed.
 
Mtek
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texasmade texasmade
The elites can afford to lose million$ or billion$. They're never going to lose their homes or die poor.

The avg ppl who have their retirement tied up in 401k and IRA's, small business owners, and regular workers are going to be hit harder. There are only a few elites but lots of average and above average who are going to be screwed.

There are people that can’t even afford groceries right now, that is who is most important to me,
 
fiberguy
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Mtek Mtek
There are people that can’t even afford groceries right now, that is who is most important to me,
massive tariffs and a trade war will sort that out ... someone's lost the plot
 
Mtek
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fiberguy fiberguy
massive tariffs and a trade war will sort that out ... someone's lost the plot

It’s working out pretty well so far, everything else is doomer speculation.
 
texasmade
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Mtek Mtek
There are people that can’t even afford groceries right now, that is who is most important to me,
The tariffs are going to make groceries much more expensive for them.

Speaking of that...I thought we were going to have $1.50 gas and cheap eggs as soon as Trump took office. That's what he promised.
 
Mtek
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texasmade texasmade
The tariffs are going to make groceries much more expensive for them.

Speaking of that...I thought we were going to have $1.50 gas and cheap eggs as soon as Trump took office. That's what he promised.

You can’t be serious. Egg prices are down as is gas since he took office.
 
Wlcutter
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Mtek Mtek
You can’t be serious. Egg prices are down as is gas since he took office.
This is literally false w/r/t eggs. No disrespect, no criticism, but it's not factual. Gas has gone from $3.20 in Feb to $3.09 in March; I cannot imagine it drops further, but we'll soon see.
 
pdxleaf
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Going back to the OP and prices of watches, we have this happening in addition to tariffs

Screenshot_20250410_112914_Chrome.webp


Forget Swiss watches, my next trips to Europe, Mexico and Japan are going to cost more.

Maybe we should think about going to Australia since the snakes have drowned and the beer is cold.
 
Mtek
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Wlcutter Wlcutter
This is literally false w/r/t eggs. No disrespect, no criticism, but it's not factual. Gas has gone from $3.20 in Feb to $3.09 in March; I cannot imagine it drops further, but we'll soon see.

Fair enough. I’m watching the price of oil on the market, and I also realize there are other factors causing this.
 
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