I should preface this by saying that I am relatively new to the world of vintage Omega. In this time I have noticed some pretty extreme prices. Is this the creation of a bubble? There are a couple of example to cite.
The most recent being today.
An Omega Seamaster 300 165.024. The estimate at a provincial English auction house was £250 - £450, which was obvously a low estimate. I received images from the auction house and with much looking still wasn't 100% sure of its authenticity.
1. The fact that the case back was lathed clean
2. Potential stubbies at 4 points (which could be case scratches)
3. invisible T swiss made T
My personal estimate would be a conservative £2000 given the potential risk. I also shared it on OF and most responses were wary
Yet it sold for £9500 including fees etc
I might add dot over 90 bezels are selling for £5000. Is this all pure speculation? Or have vintage Omega been previously underpriced ?

 

B-U-B-B-L-E

That's not to say that the most desirable, rare, and/or "important" examples won't retain their values better than the ordinary ones, but yes, it's a bubble, it will burst, and you will see prices come down.

Note, however, that the auction estimate was so ludicrously low, that it provides no useful context.

 

My cats abhor a vacuum.

 

@Tony C. do you think when the bubble bursts it will effect new releases/AD & Boutique prices as well? Or strictly the vintage models that are readily available everywhere?

 

silly question but are those spring bars welded in?

 

Were you wondering about the same I was..? Welded spring bar, lathed caseback, high winning bid.. The first thing the new owner doing is probably requesting an extract from the archives. If it turns out it was delivered to the Royal Navy, well that would put everything in a different perspective...
Might be a silly question, but did all Navy issues have the circled T on the dial?

 

Fluke auctions should not be really factored in. Auction estimates are also notoriously suspect either from lack of knowledge or pressure to over/under value pieces. In this case, perhaps someone had the correct parts to make the watch in the auction really shine, in which case the prices makes a bit of sense. Or I am going to say it... perhaps it is market manipulation, someone could have bought up 10 of these in slightly better condition at a much lower price, and will use this sale as an excuse to make a nice tidy profit on those. There is market manipulation happening by watch investment funds, and by some manufacturers ostensibly buying them for their museum, which helps justify the increase in price of new watches... looks at Patek...

Let's look at Speedmasters by themselves. Is it market correction, bubble, or slight bubble helping being driven the rise of vintage prices across the board. I think the Speedmaster is very similar to what has happened with the 911 over the past decade. The 1970-1988 911 was actually not made in particularly high numbers was a great car with parts availability and a classic timeless design. There is no question that these cars where undervalued. They finally corrected and in most cases are probably above market at this point. The very very rare 1963-1968 and pre 72 "S" and "R/RS/RSR" model cars are stratospheric in price and represent the pinnacle of collectiing these cars and pull insane prices just like the very early Speedmasters. There is an interesting argument that the Speedmaster was produced in lower numbers or equal numbers pre @1970 then the Daytona, so even excluding the Rolex bump what is justifying the price difference? No one is saying that run of the mill non exotic dial SS Daytonas from that period are over priced. As the watches are identical from a technical and material standpoint they both have come out equal on looks which each watch having pros and cons.

I personally see the Speedmasters and other Omegas are seeing a market correction, that being said if the Vintage market as a whole sees a downturn then they will drop just like everything else sans Rolex which obeys its own rules.

Discussing the Vintage market as a whole is another conversation.

 

Those are fixed bars, no springs in them.

 

Also rare models in bad condition will bring top dollar, like example above.

 

@Jwit When the current bubble bursts in earnest (like @gatorcpa, I believe that downward pressure is already evident), every sector will be affected. If resale is desired, I would much prefer to hold high-quality vintage watches to more contemporary models.

 

If this ever happens I'll be first in line buying everything up for dirt cheap. Patek, Rolex, Omega.

 

Trump effect and brexit? Brexit brings the pound down, watches are traded on an international market so their price goes up. Things like gold, and i guess luxury watches are seen as safe bets when they world goes mad? Plus, it's fun keeping your money in a mixture of dubloons and speedmasters. Anyone want to correct me on this? I'm usually wrong about things like this, which is why I'm poor.

 

Speedmaster would look good on Trump, something tropical I would say. But in realty Trump & Brexit are not in play. In general its buyers.

 

An interesting development. On auctions site the hammer price comes up as passed. Ordinarily it would then pass to the next highest bidder. In this instance it appears not. curious as to whether the vendor withdrew.

 

I think at the end of the day people need to have money to buy any non necessary items like new luxury or vintage watches. When the economy crumbles and it appears to be starting to, people will have less and less to spend. With this in mind many luxury goods and collectibles will take a hit in value as there will be fewer buyers with the money to buy non necessary items (as well as necessary ones). That said I think the pieces that will be hit the hardest are the ones that have gone up tremendously in the past few years such as many Speedmasters, Seamasters and other sports watches from other brands. Also when the economy gets hurt in years past people have run to precious metals. Fortunately almost all my watches are gold. I don't know what will happen in the future with all this in mind. This is only an opinion.

 

@Thomas P. , if it crumbles , will you melt your watches down?

 

No; a watch is typically worth more than its parts alone. I may be tempted to sell some if the price is right. Why do you ask?

 

I assumed that if things went downhill, the value would be in a chunk of gold, not in a gold watch. But that was an assumption on my part.