I don't want to sound alarmist but I do like to crunch numbers. I tabulated the number of reported cases for each day and fitted an equation that follows the trend. A somewhat simplified equation is shown here:

View attachment 916959
where

* #* is the number of cases,

*x* is the number of days since the contagion started,

*n* is the multiplication factor of new cases each day, and

*y* is a coefficient (near 1) that simulates how many people initiated the contagion. Adjusting y, n and x to fit the real number of reported cases I'm getting the numbers shown in the table below. The model doesn't predict the January 21 very well but the other days are close. The

*n* value I'm obtaining is 1.78, meaning every new day there are 1.78x more people with the disease. If we extrapolate this trend by February 5 we'll have 1 million cases and 10 million by February 9.

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