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New Coronavirus, Covid-19 information thread ( ✨posting rules imposed)

  1. 3nicewatches

    3nicewatches Jan 26, 2020

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    Are you sure about that
     
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  2. Walrus

    Walrus Jan 26, 2020

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    Well China reported its first successful treatment of the virus using a gilead antiviral drug. Good sign
     
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  3. MRC

    MRC Jan 26, 2020

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    Latest "n" aka "RO" [Transmission Ratio] in other forums seems to be around 2.6

    For comparison
    However, and I'm not a medic, researcher or statistician, isn't this exponential growth rather like the the growth of the numbers of ancestors someone has? 2 parents, 4 grand-parents, 8 great-grand-parents.... But no-one has an infinite number of ancestors, the point is reached that of the "n" more and more are just one person counted in multiple lines of descent. That is how we have a Mitochondrial Eve, the most recent GGGGxG-mother of everyone now on Earth (current estimate she lived 150 000 years ago).

    If I have the virus and walk down the street infecting each person I see and the guy behind me also infects them we do not combine to double the number of infections passed on. They can only get infected once.


    Errrr, I hope.
     
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  4. STANDY

    STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Jan 26, 2020

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    Or you could just use

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
     
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  5. MRC

    MRC Jan 26, 2020

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  6. speedydownunder

    speedydownunder Jan 26, 2020

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  7. Yak1

    Yak1 Jan 26, 2020

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    Over the past few decades, the flu and other viruses have begun to impact people traditionally considered “healthy”—specifically, mid life without medical issues. From my perspective I am still more worried about the flu, but anything that prompts a government to quarantine a city of 10millions gets my attention.
     
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  8. Foo2rama

    Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. Jan 26, 2020

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    My research tells me a few scary things. It is getting better at airborne transmission which is not unheard of. It has a 2 week incubation but at least 1/2 of that you can be a vector and not show symptoms.

    its mortality rate is significantly higher then the flu. It could hit a tip over point and things could get very bad. Think SARS or MERS but way more transmission. It has potential to be the worst in our lifetimes.
     
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  9. Larry S

    Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jan 26, 2020

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    This is really scary. Even more so because the news is now reporting the same trend.
     
  10. Yak1

    Yak1 Jan 26, 2020

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    As this forum shows: the world keeps getting smaller thanks to technology. With all the great that comes from that, there are risks.
     
  11. Omega-Q

    Omega-Q Jan 26, 2020

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    We (I work in DoD) have been watching this unfold over the past few weeks. There is a huge interagency group that has been working this for the United States. We are in contact with many international organizations that are working this as part of the interagency. The best minds are watching it and responding accordingly. Wish I could say more, but this is very high on the radar here in the U.S.
     
  12. larryganz

    larryganz The cable guy Jan 26, 2020

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    The pneumonia shot is only to protect against pneumococcal pneumonia - there are many causes of pneumonia.

    According to the Mayo Clinic "Pneumonia is an infection that inflames the air sacs in one or both lungs. The air sacs may fill with fluid or pus (purulent material), causing cough with phlegm or pus, fever, chills, and difficulty breathing. A variety of organisms, including bacteria, viruses and fungi, can cause pneumonia."
     
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  13. larryganz

    larryganz The cable guy Jan 26, 2020

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    Well said, and as a retired pediatrician (with a degree in Microbiology), what worries me most is that people are contagious before they show symptoms. Human nature says many will be in denial that they were either in an area with infections or in contact with someone with it, and will go on to infect others before they themselves show symptoms.

    People like me with severe health problems have to stop going out to movies, restaurants, or shopping, but if our spouses are not supportive then we might feel pressured to go out, and then catch it. I have been successful in isolating myself in times like this since 2013, when I was last hospitalized and on a ventilator.

    However, my wife is in the healthcare field and makes home visits as a pediatric occupational therapist, and I'm always terrified that she will bring something bad home. She and I will have to have a talk about this asap, because many times she won't find out the child is sick until she arrives at their home - if she refuses to see them then she doesn't get paid.
     
  14. destroid

    destroid Jan 27, 2020

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  15. Riviera Paradise

    Riviera Paradise Jan 27, 2020

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    I think there is much speculation now, but we will probably only have a more concrete idea of the mortality rate and level of global contagion in two weeks time.

    Since I started this thread, the Chinese and Hong Kong reaction signal that this is a serious event. The economic impact of some of the measures being taken seem too significant.

    I am surprised that Canada has not reported more cases. I would have thought that Vancouver would be one of the first locations to report confirmed cases due to its significant Chinese immigrant population (30%) and direct flights from China. As I have an upcoming business trip to Vancouver I am monitoring closely how this outbreak evolves in the BC region,
     
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  16. Archer

    Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 27, 2020

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    So far the only two cases are in Toronto, but I suspect the Vancouver area will be involved also for the reasons you state.
     
  17. Larry S

    Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jan 27, 2020

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  18. vitriol

    vitriol Jan 27, 2020

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    JPE.88305, destroid and 321Only like this.
  19. 321Only

    321Only Jan 27, 2020

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  20. Walrus

    Walrus Jan 27, 2020

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    Another scary thing is China extended the lunar new year celebration for a week or two which basically means many people aren’t working. Asian markets tanking and sell off in our market over worry’s about the Chinese economy