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New Coronavirus, Covid-19 discussion thread

  1. Riviera Paradise

    Riviera Paradise Jan 25, 2020

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    Although there is the typical media alarmism and we all know that "normal flu" kills 300,000-600,000 per year globally, it does seem that the rate of transmission of this new strain of Coronavirus might not be as low as originally thought, at least based on the 1000 bed emergency hospital building efforts underway in Wuhan.

    Perhaps some members on the OF with a medical background and those with close ties to China can share some non-hyped information as to how serious this really is and whether we should already be taking any travel precautions (face masks etc.) at this stage.

    On a side note, for the watch industry I think this is going to be a significant blow, following on just after the Hong Kong riots. The Chinese tourist is a fundamental customer base for the global luxury market.
     
    Edited Jan 25, 2020
  2. gostang9

    gostang9 Jan 25, 2020

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    I cannot offer any sort of medical opinion, only to offer that the company I work for has already announced travel restrictions to China. This impacts me personally as I have a previously booked trip to Shanghai that is now being put on hold and planned to be rescheduled until a later date.

    Whether this particular virus turns out to be as serious or dangerous as is being hyped by the media may take several weeks or months to really determine, but I suspect there will be a greater impact economically than we understand right now.

    Here's hoping it is over-hyped so the impact on lives will be limited...
     
    Riviera Paradise likes this.
  3. Larry S

    Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jan 25, 2020

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    Not a doc but ...It’s impacting markets already. People are dying. Governments are mobilizing. Pandemic of 1918 tells us that these outbreaks are always serious. Media loves a good scare story, but I don’t see hype here, just reporting, which is their job.
     
    watch3s, MJKauz, RI Omega Fan and 4 others like this.
  4. ext1

    ext1 Jan 25, 2020

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    Same here, since Korea is close to China things are on very high alert and people are trying to avoid going to places that Chinese tourists might be going to. Korea had some close calls with the previous MERS outbreak and Ebola, so it's pretty serious and I don't consider it as overhyped news.
     
  5. Archer

    Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 25, 2020

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    After having lived through the SARS epidemic, I think the precautions being taken are prudent.

    I was doing a lot of travel for sports at the time, and flew through some "hot spot" airports. On a trip to train in the US at one of the Olympic Training Centers, they were constantly making me come into the medical area and have my temperature taken, just to make sure I wasn't developing a fever...
     
    amiriqbal and red crowned like this.
  6. calalum

    calalum Jan 25, 2020

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    This is nothing to sneeze at. And according to a quick search the flu kills 30,000 to 50,000 people per year in the United States alone.
     
    Larry S likes this.
  7. Larry S

    Larry S Color Commentator for the Hyperbole. Jan 25, 2020

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    Yea ... It was always weird to arrive in Chinese airports and see folks in white lab coats, masks pointing heat sensor cameras at you or boarding the plane with same.
     
    janice&fred likes this.
  8. kingsrider

    kingsrider Thank you Sir! May I have another? Jan 25, 2020

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    So your an optimist.....?? recessions kill too...
    [​IMG]
     
    EdtheAussie likes this.
  9. dc_boffin

    dc_boffin Jan 25, 2020

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    I think the cautions being taken are very prudent, especially with the New Year's Celebrations going on. In terms of being worried: I would be more worried about the virus' impact if reactions hadn't been as swift and as reasonable as they are
     
    Larry S likes this.
  10. STANDY

    STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Jan 25, 2020

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    Going to be a lot more news come out about it especially with the lock down of 20+ million people which has never happened before

    377C17CB-3293-43B2-BC7A-8E5EF7E50BBD.png


    4814D160-3692-4E39-B98D-4EF40C15075E.png

    just think 300 people sit on plane then the contact those 300 have within the 7-14 days incubation period.
     
    marco and kip595 like this.
  11. kip595

    kip595 Jan 25, 2020

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    What’s most concerning to me at least is how easily things travel world wide these days. Supposedly (I’m not a Doc, just recalling from a book), what we now know as HIV mutated into what it essentially is in the late 50s. It was mostly remoteness and the relatively hard transfer of the virus that made it so remote for so long. An airborne flu, especially when one can go from Japan to L.A. to NYC to London in less than a full day, hypothetically, is potentially terrifying.
     
    Evose likes this.
  12. Archer

    Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker Jan 25, 2020

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    You must be in good health. For those of us that have other chronic underlying health issues, these things must be taken seriously, lest we become "outliers"...
     
  13. Evose

    Evose Jan 25, 2020

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    That's how the world will end, to be honest.
     
  14. Evitzee

    Evitzee Jan 25, 2020

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    You can never be sure what China tells you is the truth or not....the fact that they have really screwed down mobility and travel for many millions of people would indicate they take it as very serious, maybe it's a lot more serious then they are indicating.
     
  15. dennisthemenace

    dennisthemenace Hey, he asked for it! Jan 25, 2020

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    I can't believe that people are joking about it.
     
    Jimbo555, cvalue13, rbob99 and 3 others like this.
  16. Wetworks

    Wetworks Jan 25, 2020

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    The most overused word in the English language nowadays seems to be 'or.' It doesn't have to be either, it could be a combination of both, none of the above, who knows.

    As for the flu, deaths are not reportable outside the pediatric population, at least here in the US. Most are "flu and flu-like illnesses" which is a pretty broad range when it comes to diseases.

    Personal opinion? The Chinese were downplaying this initially and then realized they wouldn't be able to keep a lid on it; fearing the potential market backlash a SARS2 could have, decided to try and get out in front of it. So far, major fail on their part, especially in the face of a high traffic time given the Chinese New Year.
     
  17. gbesq

    gbesq Jan 25, 2020

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    Too early to tell yet. There are many variables, but air travel combined with a longer incubation period has made it much easier for the virus to spread globally in a matter of days. I suspect that we’ll see many more new cases within the week. The risk of a viral pandemic worldwide should not be underestimated. The 1918 flu infected roughly 1/3 of the world’s population and killed an estimated 20-50 million people globally, including 675,000 in the United States, and many victims succumbed in one day. Global travel back then was nothing like it is now. The primary risk is death by cytokine storm, when the body’s immune system goes into overdrive in response to the virus and damages vital organs in the process.
     
    Edited Jan 25, 2020
    JwRosenthal and Riviera Paradise like this.
  18. Walrus

    Walrus Jan 25, 2020

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    It’s happening during flu season which makes it more difficult to detect as it starts out similar but is harder to treat apparently. It’s the lunar new year as well today for China. This sounds pretty bad listening to the couple doctors I’ve heard interviewed but that’s the extent of my medical knowledge on it. Either way I’ll be much happier if I don’t end up with it.
     
  19. Wetworks

    Wetworks Jan 25, 2020

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    Sanitation standards also weren't anything like they are now, nor are treatment interventions. Neither should be discounted in their role in disease prevention and morbidity.
     
    EauTerre likes this.
  20. asrnj77

    asrnj77 Jan 25, 2020

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    There is nothing better for the media than the annual doomsday viral outbreak. Are they bad? Yes. I wouldn’t want to catch these things and I feel bad for the people that do but the “sky is falling” media coverage has hardened me over the years with (in no particular order) MERS, SARS, Swine Flu, Ebola, Corona virus, etc..
     
    Mouse_at_Large, Dr.Sascha and Mac5 like this.