I am obviously quite late to the game, but I figured I would make a post about it anyway. I'm going to try my best to disregard my bias towards the coolness and unparalleled classiness of a fine mechanical timepiece.

So, the Apple Watch. Of course, it is marketed as revolutionary and game-changing, but relative to the wristwatch market, we have to ask ourselves one simple question:

Is it really going to affect the wristwatch market, and if so, then how?

Back in 2007 when Apple introduced the iPhone, it had a drastic effect on the mobile device market. Not only did it take over the cellphone market, but it arguably took over the MP3 player market as well. Since 2007, tens of millions of people have converted to iPhone-ism, and it continues to expand to this very day. However, what one must realize is that the iPhone was directly competing with the cellphone market (and, eventually the MP3 player market).

However, with the Apple Watch, I am receiving a completely different vibe.

Does Apple want to dip into the luxury watch market? Or do they want to take over the market shares of companies like Timex, Seiko, Citizen, and Casio? In my opinion, the Apple Watch will not drastically affect any of these companies. Apple is a technology company, not a fashion company (although you could argue that they are, to some extent). Apple's main goal with the Apple Watch (and most other companies developing smart watches) is not to destroy and take over the Timex/Seiko/Citizen/Casio markets. Rather, their goal is to introduce a new form of technology that has very obviously began development (duh, that's what this post is about).

Essentially, they are trying to lay their foot down in what they feel will be a promising market – the smart watch market.

So, what are the consequences? Will some people replace their casual wristwatch with an Apple Watch or another smart watch? Perhaps, yes. Will all 600m – 1b people on the planet wearing watches replace it with an Apple Watch or a smart watch equivalent? Absolutely not.

Here's the thing: the new smart watch market will undoubtedly cut into the wristwatch market, but not nearly as much as many of us on the forums have anticipated. Timex, Seiko, Citizen, and Casio will definitely not go out of business. They may adapt to create their own smart watches in the future – who knows?

In regards to the luxury wristwatch market, this is the market in which I have placed the least concern. Why? Because the majority of people that buy $1,000+ timepieces are doing so because of one or multiple of the following reasons:

(1) To have a status symbol: the Apple Watch is not a status symbol. An Omega, however, is a status symbol. The golden Apple Watch? Very few will sell. There's a reason you didn't see people walking to and fro with golden and/or bedazzled iPhones.

(2) Heritage and appreciation: has the Apple Watch gone to the moon, and was it the first watch on the moon? Has it been worn in numerous James Bond films? Do they have history rooted in militaries throughout the world? Nope.

(3) To make a lasting investment: when you buy an iPhone, do you plan to use it for 35 years? Of course not! Heck, you'll be lucky if the thing isn't obsolete 10 years after your initial purchase. However, many people purchase luxury timepieces with intentions to keep them for many decades.

(4) To build upon a collection: how many people collect iPhones and iPods? The majority of us that have "collections" of these only have collections because we replace the old item with the latest and greatest item and toss the old one in a drawer in the living room. You know the feeling. You're searching through the cabinet and find a second-gen Nano, and you're like, "what? I still have this thing?" Very few people display collections of old iPhones and iPods in glass display cases.

So, you now know my view. Smart watches may take a small hit on the overall wristwatch market, but it will not be a very big one. Watches are not considered "technology" by many people anymore, but rather a fashion accessory.

I know it has already been discussed, but I'd love to hear some more opinions on this.

Cheers,

Jeff

 

It has been discussed but so has most everything else really.

This is the thing; some corrections.

Ipods revolutionized the mp3 market, iPhone just continued that revolution

IPhone was not a revolutionary phone, it Re designed the existing industry and made it cool and organic. Great smart phones wjere made.by Sony Ericsson that even today had some functions that surpassed yhe iPhone.

Smart watches have been around for a while without really affecting the actual.watch industry. You and others write these columns like this is the first smart watch to be made...it's.not. Apple is compeeting with the smart watch sector, not with the time piece sector., Omega, or Rolex or certainly the luxury brands.

The last thing any I watch user wants to know is the time, or about the mechanics of the watch... They want to know they're cool and can access Twitter.

It's apples and oranges. No one that is attracted to time pieces is going to flip to Apple, at most, like my last boss, they will carry two watches, one for pleasure and the other one for trend. In his case an IWC Yatch Master and a samsung something or other

To me, the question of the iwarch taking the place of time pieces is like the question of Google Glass taking the glass industry.

 

Tech nerds will covet it.

Real watch guys know it has a battery though.

 

"The last thing any I watch user wants to know is the time ..."

^This^

I'm such an old geezer that I can't even describe how adverse I am to owning an IWatch. I'm so grateful that I'm not required to wear one. I particularly don't want any of the features or apps.

I am grateful to be able to wear watches for Luddites though.

 

It will impact, but eventually it'll get sorted out.

The lower end market will be affected but on the long term I dont think the demographic that spends 5 to 50k on watches are going to flip for an I watch.

As i said,at be keep both. I for one don't see what the iwarch gives me.over my iPhone. And I already leave the iPhone behind when I go for dinner.

I suppose maybe the younger generations.may never acquire the taste for mechanical watches but we already had that fear with the 70's and 80's digital craze I Grew up with...and here I am.

 

summed up PERFECTLY

 

Those are numbers I'll probably never see in my life time, in any aspect of my life I'm sure -

One thing I am taking out of this though- you've got x amount of swiss watch brands (and as a result, xy different models from said brands), and only a handful of iterations of the iwatch, and already 1.16BN in profits from one week of sales (nearly 1/20th of their 2014 sales) ALONE.

Apple is a machine with an unlimited source of fuel, it seems.

 

Those are interesting statistics; however, aren't Swiss watches a very small portion of overall watch sales? I would imagine that aggregate watch sales for all other non-Swiss brands are much higher than 30m watches per year.

With that said, I still don't think the Apple Watch will hurt the Swiss market very badly. If it hurts anyone, it will hurt the Seiko/Casio/Citizen/Timex brands more than anything. Do you agree? I just can't see too many people deciding not to purchase Swiss watches because of a smart watch. Plus, smart watches will most likely be obsolete within ten years. Glasses and technological clothes will probably take over the markets in the future.

 

That's true. I just really think that the Swiss luxury market will not take a big hit. It's tough saying this because I have only one perspective, but I can't see more than (maybe) 5% of luxury watch buyers deciding that a smart watch is a sound replacement for a luxury timepiece. They would be replacing a high end piece of jewelry for a piece of technology.

Of course, I may be wrong.

 

I don't think the luxury market will take a hit at all. Like @dsio said: "Omega, Rolex and everyone above them in the market making decent mechanicals are going to be fine, if anything having more young people getting interested in and accustomed to wearing watches is actually going to feed into premium watch brands. Seiko, Citizen and especially Casio are about to take a beating they've never experienced in their lives, they have no way of competing on a cost/quality basis and are right in the firing line." < Completely agree with that.

I can also see this having a HUGE impact on the fitness watch market. Im honestly considering getting one for cycling/running. You have complete connectivity to your phone (if you're an iphone user) for fitness apps like strava, nike+, etc. along with other functions the watch has. Very logical to get it as a fitness watch rather than anything else, especially with the bottom tier aluminum models. After that, I can't say much. I'm sure the tech nerds will swoon over it as an everyday watch. I'll stick with Casio A168 for digital watches. 8)

 

These are very interesting numbers and points! Well, maybe these lower-priced companies will take a bigger hit than I expected. Damn. That kind of sucks. I would hate to see Seiko be forced out of business (which I doubt will happen). I do wonder, though, what will happen to other brands. Hmm.

 

yea for sure i think it'll be a big competitor to the lower end market. the less than $1000 market will feel it the most. smart-ish semi digital watches in that price range will hurt the most, like the tissot T touch.

 

Amen

 

I own a first generation Pebble and got sick of losing Bluetooth connections and charging it every other day
Went back to wearing a proper watch
What's worse about Apple is that they are know for planned obsolescence with all of their products. Can you imagine your Rolex dying intentionally in 4 years to force you to buy a new one?

 

I wonder who among OF member would be THE FIRST to review Applewatch from WIS perspective.
The wrist real estate competition is real..... I really would like to know whether Applewatch is that good, it could replace traditional mechanical watch coveted by WIS or at least force them to wear 2 watches in both wrist and take the risk to look silly.