I think you might be asking a bit much here - for a first watch (or really first few watches) buy something that you love. I'm as big a proponent of vintage omegas as investments but I will buy the watch first and foremost because I like it.

 

Its a very big list, the Holy Trinity of sports watches (CK2913, CK2914, CK2915) are near the top, Deluxe and Grand Luxe Constellations and Seamasters, anything with a Cal 33.3CHRO, Cal 27CHRO, Cal320, Cal 321 or Cal 930. That doesn't even scratch the surface really but its a start.

 

Just a short note of warning: Although vintage watches and other physical assets are becoming more popular, it's best not to regard them as any sort of investment or alternative cash deposit. Buy them & enjoy them - trying to predict what will remain popular or will gain in value is like trying to predict fashions (even if very well informed) & much harder than evaluating stocks and shares. To find a watch of the rarity and quality suggested above, you need to have a high level of knowledge - arguably higher than you would to get an equivalent return through stock picking.

If you would like somewhere to put money to guard against inflation or as an investment, you're better off with high yield shares, a deposit account or a government backed savings scheme.

On the other hand, if you've got money to blow on a fascinating and informative hobby, then watches are a great way to do it

 

For that particular model, I think it will at best keep its value - not a particularly collectible model.

 

The bluest of blue chip investments in vintage omegas is IMO the cal. 321 speedmasters - can't really see these watches lose value especially if the condition is great. The "moonwatch" history just can't be matched. I've said it before - if your primary goal in buying vintage omegas is ROI then you should just focus on buying the earliest, most original speedmasters in top condition. You won't lose.

 

It depends on the time horizon. Something weird will happen to gold sooner or later.

The main driver for the historically high prices we have now is the instability around currency values and the low interest rates available to savers. Those will probably stabilise and improve sometime in the next decade.

Basically, you need watch/gold prices to at least keep pace with inflation for a piece to be a "sensible" place to put money. Given that the US/UK policy seems to be to erode debt by allowing inflation that might not be totally straightforward !

As with any investment the trick will be in buying right and knowing when to sell.

 

Well as you know it's a minefield even for the experienced collector!

 

When you spend a few thousand on a watch that turns out to be a dodo...

 

My experience with vintage omegas is that 95% of the vintage omegas I view I can tell in 5 seconds or under whether I am interested or not. 4% will take 60 seconds or under and then there's that 1% that takes much longer to determine originality, condition etc. I would say vintage cal. 321 speedmasters make up a majority of that 1%.