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  1. sjg22

    sjg22 Oct 11, 2017

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    I too had spotted this one and was curious if it might slip under the radar.

    I chucked in an absentee bid, but you could add nice used car to my bid in order to get to the hammer price.

    Very nice watch regardless. Auctions are definitely like that - I’ve seen some steals, like the one below (love the bracelet.... but hell of a deal), but also some massive over-pays.

    455E0D2F-B1A7-47E1-A60E-6D590E37676A.jpeg
     
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  2. gemini4

    gemini4 Hoarder Of Speed Oct 11, 2017

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    What year was auction? 2012? 2013? Hardly a steal if 4-5 years ago
     
  3. ahantel

    ahantel Oct 11, 2017

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    I know this is Omegaforums but we should also mention that the explorer dialed Submariner from that auction also went for an obscene amount of money - even relative to other explorer dial subs, which is saying something. Seems that the whales were out in force.

    Anyone have a free $360,000?

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Vintagewtchzilla

    Vintagewtchzilla Oct 12, 2017

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    Over all subreferences there were only around 8k 2998 ever produced. In general for the age u have 5-10% survivors what makes in best case something around 800 left. So in long term the only question is to have one or have none :thumbsup:
     
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  5. Cad290

    Cad290 Oct 12, 2017

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    Only 5-10% survivors???!
     
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  6. jimmyd13

    jimmyd13 Oct 12, 2017

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    900 ... ish. Total production. Survivors? Half that? Less? In good condition? A few hundred tops.
     
  7. TsoloT

    TsoloT Oct 12, 2017

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    I must agree with my learned friend cad 290 querying 5-10%
    an inferential analysis carried out by reference to an experienced watch maker like Simon Freese who is seeing too many 2998 ‘s too frequently in comparison to known numbers of other old or limited editions to accord with a survivor population of 5-10%

    Of course it’s entirely possible that 2998 owners are obsessed with preservation thus having their watches serviced every month
     
  8. Vintagewtchzilla

    Vintagewtchzilla Oct 12, 2017

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    talked to simon too and he is guessing like we do. anyways even if double rate it's nothing and i consider them as a rare item.
    just my 2 cents.
     
  9. TsoloT

    TsoloT Oct 12, 2017

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    Are you from the Netherlands? As he mentioned a call...his view is that he has seen many more 2998 ‘s than say holy grails or speedy moons and that in his opinion the rate of destruction even given the time span would be less than 25% and both he and I on a heuristic basis would guess the surviving population is in the numbers of thousands ..he is one watchmaker albeit specialised and he has seen many dozen ..multiply it by the number of just European specialist service centres
    Or on a random distribution if he has seen 4 speedy moons and 20 2998’s in a known period of time and the know speedymoon population is say 1200 ....etc etc
    Not strictly a rare model I respectfully submit
     
  10. jimmyd13

    jimmyd13 Oct 12, 2017

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    The production figures for each 2998 reference is less than 1000 pieces. The lower numbers: -1,-2,-3 are only in the hundreds and the -4 around 900. The attrition rate is more contentious but let's say, conservatively, than only half survived then we're certainly talking about less than 3000 watches in total. Worldwide.

    After that, consider that these are up to 60 years old and think of the amount of replacement parts and the overall condition of the watch. They're too valuable for them not to be brought back up to running condition and the 321 movement is hardy enough to survive

    Next, consider your source. I know of three 2998s that have been through Simon's hands this last month - one of them from me. You only have to look at this Forum when it comes to 321 Speedmasters: the standard advice is go to Simon or STS. How many 2998s do you think your average watchmaker (is there an average watchmaker in this day and age?) even sees, let alone services? You're comparing numbers of all 2998 production to the "Holy Grail" 376.0822 which was in limited production in 1986? Or to the moonphase Speedmasters - all of them or just one reference? (I quite like the 304.33.44.how.long.can.a.ref.be but most others are a little meh). Compare all the 2998s against all the Moonphase references passing through the hands of all watchmakers and you'll get a full picture. Any other way and you're like the blind guys with an elephant.

    Finally, not when it comes to rarity but to value, you have to consider desirability. The venerated Maddox might have wanted a 5100 driven Speedy but not everyone does. Are the moonphases, well I've said I do like one of them but, on the whole are "really" Speedmasters. They're not that classic, hard, tactile, toolwatch.

    The value of a 2998 lies in all of the above and it's pointless to try to isolate any one of those points and argue against the desirability of the piece.
     
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  11. eugeneandresson

    eugeneandresson Oct 12, 2017

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    TsoloT and Cad290 like this.
  12. horndog_209

    horndog_209 Oct 12, 2017

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    That article from MWO has always perplexed me - if half as many 2915s were made as 2998s, why do we not see half as many 2915s on the market? Were they less durable, or discarded more often?
     
  13. oddboy

    oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Oct 12, 2017

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    They were just tool watches, sold for like $135. Used and abused and probably discarded or tossed in sock drawers to be pitched when the old uncles dies.

    :D
     
  14. TsoloT

    TsoloT Oct 12, 2017

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    Blind guy with an elephant knows that the holy grail was not produced in 1986 but in 1987 and 1988

    and blind guy knows that there were a proven 8000 Watches produced not your guess at 6000 and you have switched from rarity and numbers in existence ,which is the purpose of this thread ,to price and desirability and you swerve round the proof of the high numbers of 2998 By unsupported conjecture

    despite the fact that I quoted Simon as a reference i live for a significant part of the year in the USA and amazingly notwithstanding you discounting Simon as a rational source the experiences of 2 of my American watchmakers agree with Simons contention wholeheartedly and although you are referencing the forum and Simon as a support for potentially skewed data sampling I suggest you chat to Tony Cole of STS who has a a higher exposure to the U.K. vintage watch population than Simon and who has arguably seen more 2998 s than anyone in the U.K.

    And I am afraid you rather step on your own point .....if a watch maker is seeing a Watches with a limited production run of 1500 world wide and those watches sell for £17500 average and he’s seeing more than four times as many older Watches of a similar price point it’s is reasonable to assume that there is at least more than twice as many older Watches in existence [note I am discounting the necessary service requirement for the older watch despite the fact of them not being worn]

    And finally your “conservative “ rate of attrition is based on what exactly .....again in discussion with Simon he analogously points out that over 75% or Land Rover population still exists ...and cars are massively more subject to depredations than Watches so conservative would be in the order of 25% leaving at least 6000 still in existence which accords with the observable data and which was the basis of the discussion of this thread in the first place
     
  15. smitty190373

    smitty190373 Oct 12, 2017

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    A comma marks a slight break between different parts of a sentence. Used properly, commas make the meaning of sentences clear by grouping and separating words, phrases, and clauses.
     
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  16. nixf6

    nixf6 Oct 12, 2017

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    Even if all 8000 of the 2998s survived to this day,with a world population of 7.4 billion today.It's a poof tenth of a percentage.There are not that many to go around.
     
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  17. oddboy

    oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Oct 12, 2017

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    Let's eat grandma!

    Let's eat, grandma!
     
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  18. Uniqez

    Uniqez Oct 12, 2017

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    Poor grandma)))
     
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  19. jimmyd13

    jimmyd13 Oct 12, 2017

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    My error - 1987 and possibly into 1988. I do hope that you did not take the "blind" reference personally, it is a parable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blind_men_and_an_elephant#The_parable
    Even MWO admit that the lack of records for earlier production means any numbers are a guesstimate. I'd love to know where your proof is from. In fact, I'm willing to bet there are dozens here who would love a source for definite production figures. Still, let's go with 8000 total production - I still say the attrition rate is higher than you believe and 50% is probably being conservative. My source? 27 years collecting vintage watches and what I observe, read, talk to other collectors about .. if you have something that can shed light on a debate that's been running for years then, please, share it
    As for my switching topics from rarity to desirability, as I look at the title of this thread it seems to me to about a 2998 being offered for auction and the desirability of that watch. Yours was the comment that moved the conversation and I was simply bringing it back.
    I don't discount Simon as a reference. I say that he is outside of the norm in that he is well known for his work on vintage Omegas and so is more likely to see the same than other watchmakers. I haven't met Tony, although I have spoken to him and STS have serviced a number of watches for me. Again, I would say that STS fall into the same class as Simon Freese - the quality of their work and their reputation for sympathetically servicing and restoring vintage watches - lead to them being the more likely destination for a 2998 than almost anywhere else.
    I'm not sure which point you believe I trip over. You are comparing a limited edition watch (which, the "holy grail" or just one of the moonphase references?) with a watch that was produced over some 4 years in the late 1950s and early 1960s. That vintage watch, you say, had a production run of 8000 (more than five times the LE) and you further say that these are seen four times more often and so must number twice as many?
    Rover do claim that 75% of Defenders (including the old 80's 90's and 110's) are still on the road. Rolls Royce claim that over 90% of the cars they have ever made are still in existence. Speedmasters were not Landrovers or Rolls. They were (and still are) tool watches. Yes, they have a following of collectors who bring them back to life, just like Landrovers. There are equally collectors of Lancia who bring those back to roadgoing condition but no-one's claiming Lancia has a phenomenal attrition rate and there's nothing to indicate that the longevity of a Speedmaster should be compared to the survivability of a Landrover, Rolls Royce or Lancia.

    Essentially, this argument comes down to your claiming there are some 6000 of these watches out there and my opinion that there are fewer. In addition to which, you seem to prefer certain limited edition references to the vintage ones while I don't. Frankly, buy all the Holy Grails and moonphases you want ... I'll not be bidding against you.
     
  20. oddboy

    oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Oct 12, 2017

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    Who knows how many there are out there? Not me.

    But of the ones out there, how many are in very good and original condition? Far fewer than the total number. Of that, I'm quite sure.
     
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