i was watching 3 auctions on eBay
for vintage Rolex’s and they went for way lower than I thought they would compared to previously sold watches...lower to the tune of 20-25%!
Anyone else seeing this trend?

 

It's the slow summer doldrums = good times for watch picking!

 

This is going to be an over-generalization, but I am noticing that the price-gaps are increasing as a function of condition. As a result, some decent pieces are going at lower prices now, especially for common references like Rolex 5513 or Omega 145.022-69, where the market is always flooded. Top-notch collector pieces are still going very high in general.

Also ... as @Vitezi mentioned ... it is the summer. A good time to buy if you can find anything.

 

Yeah, I don't see any bursting, personally. Vintage Rolex continues to sell for very, very strong prices when condition and rarity warrants it. It's also hard to judge your opening post without links to the actual watches in question.

 

I don't think it's bursting ... I think the gap between watches in good condition and those in so-so or poor condition is expanding. Thus, when a watch in the matter category sells for a much lower price than those in the former, it merely has the appearance of looking like a watch selling for less. (I heard Wind articulate something like this in an H10 talk back in Dec.)

 

Also, if you think that the summer doldrums are in effect, I'd encourage you to peruse the eBay auction that was listed by international2013-2013 (a power seller on eBay who dumps 150 generally high quality watches onto eBay every few months). I was thinking about bidding on many of them and all of the prices are already above my interest level with 10 hours left.

 

I've been collecting for 40 years, I can't remember how many times people have said, 'this is it, they can't go any higher, a huge correction is coming' and after a pause or maybe a slight decrease the trend line continues its upward movement. Good products with good names will always be in demand.....Rolex ticks all the boxes. I wouldn't read too much into what is happening right now....it's a long game.

 

I think it is just a slow summer market to be honest. I do agree with @Dan S, that the gap between 'good' and 'collector' condition is growing, This has been forecasted by many in the industry over the last few years and underlined by recent auction sales.

 

Did he rob some secret vintage Tudor bank?? Never seen so many Tudor watches sold at the same time. Some very interesting pieces indeed..

 

The Tudor 9411/0 with the box sold for $7960 on May 15th by the same seller. Not clear why it’s being resold. They sold about a dozen high end pieces on May 15th but I could only find two reviews from those sales. Strange....

 

The condition gap makes perfect sense, chaff separating from the wheat. The ones I was watching (just DJ’s and Air-kings i had bookmarked) weren’t particularly special pieces, but they were selling for about 20% more in similar condition 3 months ago. That said, I have seen an uptick in the same references in better condition going up 25% more so this gels with the condition gap mentioned.

I couldn’t figure out what the shift in pricing was but this makes perfect sense looking at it from this perspective...I was only looking at one end of the market

 

Actually two more reviews from his May 15th sale didn’t look so hot. The one buyer says fake papers for the Explorer II but in the pic it looks like a legit punched paper. Kind of hard to tell but if that’s a fake it’s a good one.

 

The market continues to adapt as do the collectors.

I started in this game many years ago, but really got back into seriously 4 years ago. In that time, I've owned more watches than I can count, and have matured as a collector...watches that I never thought obtainable are now the cornerstones of my collection, and ones that I once thought of as grails are now low man on the totem pole, or due to my latest acquisition, have been sold off.

I mention this, as the market and its collectors, are maturing...2nd rate examples with apologies linger and do not bring the numbers they once did. Excellent examples will always command premiums, and the market rewards excellent examples.

 

I don't believe there is a bubble bursting at the moment, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened before.

Ask any Rolex Bubble back collector and I'm sure they will tell you how many boxes Rolex ticks with those these days compared to the heyday...

 

I wouldn’t say bursting. Probably just some slight fluctuations. Price is still pretty strong compared to the price a few years ago.

 

At least there is photographic evidence of the seller

 

Bubble backs are an interesting case for sure. On the one hand, they often had very interesting, art deco dials that made them quite attractive, despite the fact they were often re-finished. Unfortunately, at 32mm, they are viewed now as being too small even for women. I think that was their real death knell. Plus, and I'm sure you can weigh in on this: every watchmaker I ever knew said the movements were "evil." Can't speak to the details...

 

I was simply countering the assertion often made that Rolex is a sure thing. Nothing could be further from the truth, and as fashions change, the money will follow...

 

Tulips, Qualcomm, Beanie Babies....yeah, all great investments

 

Qualcomm has fared better than tulips and beanie babies.