How much weight do members put on the Chrono24 'estimated worth' chart?

AlphaToOmega · May 10, 2021

And how is it calculated? Is it based on actual watch sales made through their site? Any feedback would be useful. Many thanks in advance.

Dan S · May 10, 2021

I think this has been discussed previously, and the consensus seemed to be that the chart is based on asking price, not actual sales. If true, this would make it pretty much useless.

fibonacci · May 10, 2021

Dan S
I think this has been discussed previously, and the consensus seemed to be that the chart is based on asking price, not actual sales. If true, this would make it pretty much useless.

It would surprise me if they didn't take sales prices into account, but even if they didn't it would only be useless if you believe there's no correlation between asking prices and sales prices.

s2000_driver · May 10, 2021

Not sure if Chrono24 discloses their algorithm for their estimates. From my observation, the prices seem inflated. Market prices for sure are markedly lower. So I do not put any weight on their estimates. A watch is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, not the asking price.

Dan S · May 10, 2021

fibonacci
it would only be useless if you believe there's no correlation between asking prices and sales prices.

I don't believe it, I know it. 😁

fibonacci · May 10, 2021

Maybe it depends on the segment of the market in question, or maybe I'm just a poor negotiator. Do tell if you're getting 50% off C24 asking prices for nice vintage chronographs.

Andrew C · May 10, 2021

If it helps: making someone feel like the value of their collection is increasing is a great motivating tool to get them to buy more watches... People love momentum...

Start with people's motivations for doing something, and then work backwards as to how much you trust their output.

The market price of your watch is the price you can get someone to buy it at, and that's really it.

Condition is everything in determining value - and their setup only allows you to specify new and used...

Dan S · May 10, 2021

fibonacci
Maybe it depends on the segment of the market in question, or maybe I'm just a poor negotiator. Do tell if you're getting 50% off C24 asking prices for nice vintage chronographs.

I am basing my opinion on both selling and buying prices from my firsthand experience. And obviously I never said that the the estimates were double the actual value. If that sort of silly exaggeration is the approach you're going to take in this conversation, then I think it's going to be a short one.

Let's talk about watches in the $4k-$10k range for example, since I've bought and sold several in that range this year. If I look at the estimated price range for those watches, I'm finding that the high end of the C24 range is often in the right ballpark for a really incredible pristine example, but the average and low end of the range are absurdly high, probably by a solid 25%.

fibonacci · May 10, 2021

Dan S
If I look at the estimated price range for those watches, I'm finding that the high end of the C24 range is often in the right ballpark for a really incredible pristine example, but the average and low end of the range are absurdly high, probably by a solid 25%.

Almost sounds like a correlation.

Dan S
If that sort of silly exaggeration is the approach you're going to take in this conversation, then I think it's going to be a short one.

Knock it down a notch? I generally enjoy reading your posts and my comments are meant in the spirit of friendly discussion.

DaveK · May 10, 2021

I’ve always assumed that Chrono24’s Estimated Worth chart served to motivate folks to sell their watches - increasing their volume and market presence.

The inflated prices that Chrono24 suggests do serve one legit purpose though: allowing us to “prove” to our spouses that we are absolute champions of buying watches for cheap and having them increase in value 😗

gbesq · May 10, 2021

Probably just dumb luck on my part, but I recently listed a 1964 Constellation 167.005 on C24. The watch had a polished case and a patinated dial, but was in good mechanical condition. I priced it according to C24’s valuation, which I thought was high, but it sold in less than a week.

kingsrider · May 10, 2021

This thread is proof positive that the old adage, it's worth what some one will pay for it.

AlphaToOmega · May 11, 2021

Dan S
I think this has been discussed previously, and the consensus seemed to be that the chart is based on asking price, not actual sales. If true, this would make it pretty much useless.

If it is based on asking price, you are correct, utterly pointless. I will be taking it with more than a pinch of salt in future.

Shabbaz · May 11, 2021

Other topic, I was putting a watch yesterday for sale on chrono and suddenly I had the choice of creating a ad or selling it directly to chrono. I did'nt know chrono also buys watches.

kov · May 11, 2021

Shabbaz
I did'nt know chrono also buys watches.

yep and they resell on their platform :

regarding the collection, I tend to delete the watches they automatically add to my « collection » section - I don’t need them to know what I own 😒

STANDY · May 11, 2021

fibonacci
Maybe it depends on the segment of the market in question, or maybe I'm just a poor negotiator. Do tell if you're getting 50% off C24 asking prices for nice vintage chronographs.

Well see that’s where it fails because a dog of a watch and a mighty fine specimen are both the same in the eyes of estimated worth. It’s only when you nut it out you realise only a fine specimen is worth the estimated price. ( and joe blow with a average specimen now thinks his watch is worth more )

fibonacci · May 11, 2021

STANDY
Well see that’s where it fails because a dog of a watch and a mighty fine specimen are both the same in the eyes of estimated worth.

Not exactly since I think they give a range rather than a single price point.

Look, I'm not saying that their estimates are accurate. I'm just saying that they can be useful as a data point. What I think would be valuable in this thread is more comparisons like the one that @Dan S provided. i.e. if we decide they systematically overvalue less-than-pristine examples by, say, 25%, then back 25% out of the number they give you and voila you have your estimate.

ConElPueblo · May 11, 2021

I have bought five or six watches on C24 and I would say that I generally get around 10-20% off the asking price.

The chart depicting the curve of the value over time is useful, the actual prices less so.

TimeODanaos · May 11, 2021

There's a need to aim off for "selection bias". C24 only chart the (what they would see as the) progress of those models for which there is a sufficiently deep and liquid market. Those pieces are, by definition, the watches that have been in demand, and whose prices have usually stayed stable or risen as a consequence. So you buy a Sub on the strength of that, and after several others do the same all Subs then float upwards (hoho) over time. Another consequence of this selection bias is that you will hardly ever see a value graph that is falling. That leads to the self-fulfilling illusion that "watches" as an "asset class" 🤮 are a store of value or possible source of profit.
In most advanced countries, anyone advising on financial investment faces huge regulatory barriers and compliance costs. Anyone selling watches can write a page or a blog describing it as an "investment". Anyone with a sales platform can connect some dots and call it a chart, y'know, like they have in Wall Street an' all? 🤦

smoothsecondscom · May 11, 2021

I think it's not useless, but if you're selling as a private person just take 60-75% of the chrono24 value as the value that you would actually be able to receive

How much weight do members put on the Chrono24 'estimated worth' chart?

AlphaToOmega

Dan S

fibonacci

s2000_driver

Dan S

fibonacci

Andrew C

Dan S

fibonacci

DaveK

gbesq

kingsrider

AlphaToOmega

Shabbaz

kov

STANDY

fibonacci

ConElPueblo

TimeODanaos

smoothsecondscom

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