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  1. timoss May 22, 2019

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    Is there any semi-sane argument to be made that buying a watch is at least as good as parking money in a savings account?

    I realize that all sorts of things come into play here, not least of which is which watches we are talking about, what condition they are in, what price you buy them for, and where the market is when you want to sell them. But let’s just say we are talking generically about watches that are of some value now and that reasonably smart choices are made on selection of specific pieces. Let’s say we are not even looking for big gains. Let’s say we are just looking at keeping pace with inflation, perhaps, and enjoying our watches along the way until at retirement or an emergency arises and you might want to cash in.

    Please tell me that this makes at least a little sense so I can justify spending more money on watches I want. :)
     
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  2. corn18 May 22, 2019

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    Sorry, you're SOL on this argument. At least in my experience. Over a 2 year period, I bought a lot of watches and spent $174,203. I sold them for $156,457. That is a loss of 9.1% over 2 years. I'm sure I could do better now (not).
     
    Edited May 22, 2019
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  3. Uscjake87 May 22, 2019

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    Vintage watches are a finite supply. As time goes on, collectors grade watches are harder to acquire. The problem is the market doesnt always go up. There is no guarantee in a return on your investment. Buy low and sell a little higher for some short term gains is a better game for beginners. Buying a mint or NOS vintage watch and making it a safe queen for 30 years may not be a worthwhile investment. Having said that, I am putting my money in early quartz and tuning fork watches as I think they are cool and undervalued. I doubt they will go up wildly in value, but daytonas skyrocketed so who knows what the market will do?
     
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  4. timoss May 22, 2019

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    I can live with that—I’ve never done much better in the stock market ::shy::

    I wonder if you had not flipped them in two years but held them for 20 what the result would have been...
     
  5. corn18 May 22, 2019

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    Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Some are worth a lot more now than when I sold them. Some are not. The market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
     
  6. BlackTalon This Space for Rent May 22, 2019

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    What would your $ be at in 20 years if in the stock market? Likely more than doubled (if not 4x)
     
  7. timoss May 22, 2019

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    Yeah not talking about my life savings here or a substitute for real long term investment. Just talking about breaking even or so.
     
  8. Uscjake87 May 22, 2019

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    Study one watch brand for a year. Watch sold listings to gauge pricing. Then do a one year spree of buy, fix, sell. See how it pans out. You may end up 10% down or 10% up. Its a great hobby, but you wont be rich unless you are netting thousands per watch.
     
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  9. BlackTalon This Space for Rent May 22, 2019

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    I hear you. But you asked what the result would have been if he kept the watches for 20 years. Good chance some could be worth even a lot less, and maybe some could be worth a little more. But the odds of doing more than breaking even are minimal (and breaking even is really a loss, due to inflation).

    Don't get me wrong -- I have a handful of watches I could only justify buying by saying the savings account rate is so low right now I will not be behind that by much over a few years. And with some being sold out LEs, maybe some will do a little better. But at least one of the LEs is ~20% below the price I bought it at, which was already ~15% below MSRP.
     
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  10. Flatfoot May 22, 2019

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  11. Evitzee May 22, 2019

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    Very, very hard to make this argument work. Perhaps if you could buy Rolex steel sports watches at MSRP and almost never wore them you could probably break even in 5 or 10 years, after inflation. But watches aren't investment vehicles. They are for personal enjoyment and the dividend is the joy at owning and wearing them.
     
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  12. calalum May 22, 2019

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    My sense is that your argument is wishful thinking and certainly not something to rely on. If you enjoy the watches that you buy and can afford to keep them even if the value falls, you may get lucky and have some that go up in value. But it wasn't that long ago that we had a significant recession in the US (2008-2011 or so, and others earlier), and a lot of watch owners (and car owners and art owners and real estate owners) were unable to keep what they owned and sold assets at steep discounts just to put food on the table. You would have been a lot poorer if you bought a lot of watches or whatever in early 2008 instead of holding cash, unless you were able to ride out the storm.

    A good friend of mine (and fellow watch collector) came to my office after his consulting business fell apart in the recession and asked me to help him sell some watches. I helped and he was extremely grateful, but I didn't understand the depth of his issues; he killed himself shortly after the last time I saw him to give him the proceeds of one of the sale (an Omega SM, the then newish one with the orange bezel). So don't kid yourself.

    Sorry to be somber on this topic.
     
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  13. Foo2rama Keeps his worms in a ball instead of a can. May 22, 2019

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    If you do research and hunt, good deals can be had. Over the past 10 years I’m about even.

    Down huge on a new purchase POC. Up a bunch on vintage pieces I got below market or have gone up. (No Rolex)

    Mostly smart buys on bad eBay posts.

    A used modern piece can be a non depreciating asset if your smart about what you buy. Assuming the market doesn’t take a dump.
     
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  14. JwRosenthal May 22, 2019

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    I hate to say it but I think the ship has sailed on the watch maket, it’s already inflated and everybody thinks they have a goldmine. If you were buying 15 years ago when it was stagnant and the internet wasn’t as available to everyone then I would say you could have made a killing....but who knew in 2004 that a 70’s GMT would be worth more than $2k.
     
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  15. timoss May 22, 2019

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    Thanks, guys— you’ve convinced me: buying more watches is a good idea and a solid investment. All I needed to hear.
     
  16. 77deluxe May 22, 2019

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    Try to follow this plan: buy really popular watches in the very best condition for the lowest possible price, then sell those watches for the highest price at the top of the market. You can’t lose.

    In all seriousness, if you do your research and buy smart, you should be ok.
     
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  17. Benbradstock May 22, 2019

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    As much as the vintage watch market is au courant and booming now, people have been saying that the ship has sailed off and on for years. Assuming you are buying intelligently and dispassionately, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if today’s prices seem like the good old days 5 or 10 years from now.
     
  18. JwRosenthal May 22, 2019

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    I’m glad to see selective listening isn’t exclusive to my family
     
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  19. JwRosenthal May 22, 2019

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    But you have made the key statements- intelligently and dispassionately- those are the words of an investor, not a collector (not to say an investor can’t be a collector or vice-versa). Typically, collectors collect very passionately, they are driven by a desire to assemble their collections based on very subjective criteria and financial gains or losses are not really relevant. Most collectors never sell their collections, they may upgrade or change the course of their collection as they develop their taste, but it not typically motivated by profit or loss.
     
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  20. cvrle1 May 23, 2019

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    For me it always came down to the hunt for great deal. I know that if I find a great buy, I will not lose money. All the watches I bought so far were either crap eBay photos that I rolled a dice on, or BINs that sellers had for too low. I knew that with each watch that I bought I could turn around and sell it right away and make some $. Not a lot mind you, but definitely would not be in the minus.

    For me, that is the only way to buy vintage pieces, as no matter what market does, prices will not fall down so much that I will lose $. If they do, then we will have much bigger issues to worry about than price of watches