Have we finally gone over the edge?

ATWG · Sep 2, 2021

I know most of us follow world events and have seen the horror playing out on our screens with record heat, intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic, flooding across the globe, vast fire outbreaks in the west, historic droughts, etc. you get the picture.

I have lived the D.C. area for most of my adult life and absolutely love living here. I enjoy the 4 seasons and there is plenty of outdoor activity to keep busy year round. My family has never thought about moving, until recent weather events around us. I know we have not been impacted nearly as much as the folks in Florida, Gulf or west coast, however, the recent weather patterns are cause for concern.

Yesterday, ruminants of hurricane Ida ripped through the mid-atlantic touching off tornados and leaving behind wreckage never seen before. This coming on the heals of having the 8th wettest August in DC, a record which keeps breaking on a regular basis now.

In my town, a suburb of DC, 2 people lost their lives due to flooding, just a few short miles north of where I live. Oddly enough, I had spend my youth growing up in that community and had never seen any traces of flooding. The images were surreal to say the least.

Ida was not done, it caused once in 500 year floods in NYC, causing 14 casualties, which is becoming all too common. Today, it's absolutely gorgeous with temperatures in mid-70's and now humidity. It almost fools you to a lull as if nothing had happened 10 hours before.

All this makes you wonder, what's next? Is there any place safe from climate change? I find myself thinking about this a lot more frequent than I used to.

Togri v. 2.0 · Sep 2, 2021

I attended a presentation of the new IPCC report last week and it is scary stuff. The worst case scenarios keep getting worse and they are not ruling out 15m increase in sea level in 2300.

BlackTalon · Sep 2, 2021

Born and raised in the DC area. The worst weather I remember was a big hurricane in the early '70s. Haven't seen anything that bad around here since. We've been spared by hurricanes/ severe remnants for over decade. There do seem to be more 'microbursts', but some of that is due to increase news availability.

Flooding is definitely worse in some parts of the DC area. But so is development. There are areas around me (Alexandria) that flood frequently these days. It is largely due to increased runoff and sewer systems that are beyond capacity. Yes, 10-year and 100-year storms have increased in frequency, leading to redrawing of flood maps, etc., but even if the frequency had not increased the runoff has due to development.

Everywhere I turn there are more construction cranes. While many of the new buildings incorporate measures to reduce storm sewer outflow, there is still an issue where there are combined sewers so the increased sanitary is using up more of the capacity.

Not saying there are changes in the climate, but a lot of what we are seeing in this region are also due to other factors.

Dan S · Sep 2, 2021

I hear you. I think that most of us find ourselves reflecting on this more often each year, and unfortunately it seems very hard to escape the impacts, both the gradual average changes as well as the more frequent extreme events. It's harder and harder to ignore even for people who would like to ignore it. I interact very frequently with people in the oil and gas industry and the Department of Energy, and attitudes have shifted markedly over just the past 5 years.

Sadly, it seems overwhelmingly likely that it will only get worse in the short term, so we probably need to be increasingly proactive about preparing for extreme events.

Omegafanman · Sep 2, 2021

I think the 24/7 news agenda means we all reflect on stuff too much these days. Anything climate change and economy related is an oil tanker situation / we cant change direction that quickly even if we want to (ok unless solar sails get deployed to control the % sunshine people get). Frustratingly the science takes time to be assessed and there are longer term natural cycles to factor in. Also in my area we have too much building / concrete, too high a popluation growth and years of under investment in the drainage system.
If we are on the edge why is it in business they wont touch an investment unless the ROI is 2-3 years (mostly) but most of the public / private eco house schemes are 20-25 year payback.... if we are at a tipping point charging me £15K for a heat pump system to replace a £800 gas boiler seems a funny way to encourage good behaviour in a crisis. Short answer (IMHO) is we need to change but I dont think we are over the cliff yet (but there are way too many people and livestock plus a raw material consumerist population growth model looks a tough one to keep going given the environmental situation)

gbesq · Sep 2, 2021

I'm not sure that we're over the cliff just yet, but we are decidedly at the edge and quickly running out of time to make changes that will stabilize, let alone reverse, climate change. And that is not our only problem. We have serious issues to address with overpopulation, probable depletion of global food and water supplies, environmental pollution, pandemic viruses, thermonuclear, chemical and biological weapons stores, etc. I think that it's inconceivable to most of us that the human race could go the way of the dinosaurs, but I don't discount that possibility. We are our own worst enemy..

Larry S · Sep 2, 2021

Some frogs are more and more aware, and resentful they are slowly being boiled. Others seem to think the extra heat is not a problem, a natural process or a good thing. I’m with the former...

lillatroll · Sep 2, 2021

Larry S
Some frogs are more and more aware, and resentful they are slowly being boiled. Others seem to think the extra heat is not a problem, a natural process or a good thing. I’m with the latter.

I think the science suggests otherwise. We are killing our planet and if we don't change our attitudes the planet will kill us. Perhaps that sounds dramatic but I believe that to be the outcome.

Walrus · Sep 2, 2021

I’m pretty sure our own individual end will come about quicker than the end of our species at large. Has there been a generation that has not thought we were in end times. I do the best I can as an individual to make things a little better, or at least not worse, I’m pretty sure generations to come will continue these discussions as they seem to have started as soon as man could write. I could always be wrong though and everything will go to complete shit within the hour.

gbesq · Sep 2, 2021

lillatroll
I think the science suggests otherwise. We are killing our planet and if we don't change our attitudes the planet will kill us. Perhaps that sounds dramatic but I believe that to be the outcome.

I agree. It’s convenient to ignore the science and believe that we’ll just muddle through any difficulties, but we do so at our peril. Life on Earth, in all its forms, lives within a relatively narrow environmental range and our actions are changing those parameters for the worse. Many species have already vanished from the planet due to environmental changes. We are more adaptable than most, but there are limits.

MRC · Sep 2, 2021

Oblig: xkcd

Omegafanman · Sep 2, 2021

lillatroll
I think the science suggests otherwise. We are killing our planet and if we don't change our attitudes the planet will kill us. Perhaps that sounds dramatic but I believe that to be the outcome.

I guess it depends how we define ‘We’ and how does government fit into the picture. In the UK they pushed hard for Diesel cars for example - many still attract zero road tax / low company car tax - but within four years local government now ban them from city centres as high polluters which have caused increased death and ill health in children. Hard to know who has got your back. I suspect now the global population levels are so high and with so many different different views, economies and cultures, at some point people further up the food chain will kick in some herd management (for our own good of course) irrespective of what ‘we’ do. Hopefully they have a better sense of direction by then. On the flip side if the top tier are not getting on there could be a war. If we do blow ourselves up does that count as the planet killing us (I guess we are still planet despite that pesky consciousness thing going on)

Dan S · Sep 2, 2021

MRC
Oblig: xkcd

It does make me sad to think about the younger people, like @MRC, my niece, my students, etc., who will still be around in 50-60 years. Not that I'm happy to be getting old, but you know what I mean ...

ATWG · Sep 2, 2021

All I know is, seeing images of German towns/villages that have been there for hundreds of years go under water in a flash, is not normal. You can't just brush that to side and call it urbanization, that's just BS.

MRC · Sep 2, 2021

Dan S
It does make me sad to think about the younger people, like @MRC, my niece, my students, etc., who will still be around in 50-60 years.

Me 50 years from now....

Syrte · Sep 2, 2021

Dan S
I interact very frequently with people in the oil and gas industry and the Department of Energy, and attitudes have shifted markedly over just the past 5 years.
.

Very interesting, could that lead to accept major policy changes and if so which?

ATWG · Sep 2, 2021

BlackTalon
Born and raised in the DC area. The worst weather I remember was a big hurricane in the early '70s. Haven't seen anything that bad around here since. We've been spared by hurricanes/ severe remnants for over decade. There do seem to be more 'microbursts', but some of that is due to increase news availability.

Flooding is definitely worse in some parts of the DC area. But so is development. There are areas around me (Alexandria) that flood frequently these days. It is largely due to increased runoff and sewer systems that are beyond capacity. Yes, 10-year and 100-year storms have increased in frequency, leading to redrawing of flood maps, etc., but even if the frequency had not increased the runoff has due to development.

Everywhere I turn there are more construction cranes. While many of the new buildings incorporate measures to reduce storm sewer outflow, there is still an issue where there are combined sewers so the increased sanitary is using up more of the capacity.

Not saying there are changes in the climate, but a lot of what we are seeing in this region are also due to other factors.

I'm very familiar with Alexandria which has always been prone to flooding due to it's proximity to the Potomac river, I used live in the Torpedo factory. What I'm talking about is different, for the first in it's history, NJ was under a Tornado warning yesterday, and one was observed. So, there is something intrinsically happening around us and I feel that we're on the cusp of dramatic changes to our lives. I guess some of us are more observant or sensitive to it than others.

In one point in my life, I thought of moving to CA as my eventual retirement place. That is now completely out of the question due to climate change. I can say it's having an impact, for me at least.

Rochete · Sep 2, 2021

Walrus
I’m pretty sure our own individual end will come about quicker than the end of our species at large. Has there been a generation that has not thought we were in end times. I do the best I can as an individual to make things a little better, or at least not worse, I’m pretty sure generations to come will continue these discussions as they seem to have started as soon as man could write. I could always be wrong though and everything will go to complete shit within the hour.

Apparently "world" has been ending since it first appeared...

gbesq · Sep 2, 2021

ATWG
I'm very familiar with Alexandria which has always been prone to flooding due to it's proximity to the Potomac river, I used live in the Torpedo factory. What I'm talking about is different, for the first in it's history, NJ was under a Tornado warning yesterday, and one was observed. So, there is something intrinsically happening around us and I feel that we're on the cusp of dramatic changes to our lives. I guess some of us are more observant or sensitive to it than others.

In one point in my life, I thought of moving to CA as my eventual retirement place. That is now completely out of the question due to climate change. I can say it's having an impact, for me at least.

While I agree with your general premise, I hope that you’re not saying that the tornado that touched down in NJ yesterday was the first in the state’s history. That is certainly not correct as there is a well documented history of tornadoes in the Garden State going back to at least 1835. Most have fallen into the EF0 category and have posed relatively little risk, but they are not infrequent occurrences.

Dan S · Sep 2, 2021

Syrte
Very interesting, could that lead to accept major policy changes and if so which?

You're right, and the dynamics are interesting since even with an acceptance of climate change, self-interest is (unsurprisingly) still high in the oil and gas industry. Policy is always closely tied to politics, but there are some interesting things occurring that I didn't necessarily anticipate. One example that might intrigue you is the dramatically increasing interest in the development of energy-efficient direct air (or ocean) carbon capture technologies, since it is seen as something that will allow us to keep using fossil fuels and also potentially a remediation strategy. This has been sort of a back-burner technology for a long time now, but suddenly it's everywhere. Obviously, this does not seem like a viable long-term solution and I'm personally a skeptic, but massive investments are being made since virtually everyone from oil/gas execs to environmentalists would like it to be cost-effective and energy efficient.

Have we finally gone over the edge?

ATWG

Togri v. 2.0

BlackTalon

Dan S

Omegafanman

gbesq

Larry S

lillatroll

Walrus

gbesq

MRC

Omegafanman

Dan S

ATWG

MRC

Syrte

ATWG

Rochete

gbesq

Dan S

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