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Guide to EBay gambling - UG Edition

  1. LouS Mrs Nataf's Other Son Staff Member Jan 10, 2015

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    Recently, Hodinkee contributor (and OF member) Eric Wind did a masterful writeup of shopping for watches on Ebay (http://www.hodinkee.com/blog/hodinkee-guide-to-buying-watches-on-ebay). It was a pretty impressive distillate of an experience that takes years and no small amount of dollars to acquire. And it felt a little like he was giving away the combo to the safe, but never mind about that - it was very well done.

    BY way of catching up on some of my activity for the past several months, I thought I'd present some random observations on the ins and outs of Ebay trawling - a disorganized, much lesser version of Eric's masterpiece - sort of a version for the jaded, as Ebay becomes a less and less likely place to find interesting pieces at interesting prices. If you're bored enough, dogged enough, lucky enough, and if you like a little gamble now and again you might find something worthwhile occasionally. Of course, you may also step in poo. Whatever. It beats doing something productive around the house.

    The "nonworking" watch:

    Not everyone knows how to wind a mechanical watch or work a chronograph. This leads to listings which state that the watch is nonworking. Parsing these to decide whether that's true, or whether the seller is simply not in the know is a black art. Consider:

    1945 Universal Geneve Chronograph Uni-Compax 17 Jewel Mens Wrist Watch. #250852 Serial #1130025 Cal.285 Triple Signed. The watch runs for a couple hours and then stops. I'm not sure how to operate the other hands. The one on the left does work. I don't know enough obout the watch to make the right side work. I think it just needs a good cleaning.

    Here's a seller who knows enough about watches to correctly report reference, serial number and caliber, and use a term like "triple signed" but then affects ignorance about the function of the watch. Surely that's a put-on? The pics aren't bad, although taken in unfavorable lighting so the case looks way more scratched that it is, and there is one of the movement
    793303466_o.jpg
    793303488_o.jpg

    It looks as if it is all there, and although the watch is unholy dirty, that's a purty dial. He's scared away enough bidders with all that talk about service and nonfunctioning that a lowball bid takes it - USD1300 - not a screaming bargain, but good deal if it works. And when I get it, I find that it does. It was the rare honest Ebay listing. The guy really didn't know how to work it.

    Result:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The badly written listing:

    Consider this listing title:
    Universal pole route date with leather strap automatic

    Pure catnip for the gambler. By mis-writing "Polerouter" in the title, the seller has hidden his listing from all the people using automatic search functions.

    It gets better. Have a good look at this pic:
    $_57.JPG

    Gold back and the faint image of a hallmark on the back of two lugs. It's 18K gold, and the seller seems oblivious - he never so much as mentions the detail anywhere in the listing. I take a punt and win. In fact, I am the only bidder on a moderate wanker's reserve. A bit sad, actually. Went for USD1000

    Result:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Bad, bad, bad photography:

    It has been noted elsewhere on this site that it is amazing in the era of the point and shoot digital camera that people list with subpar photos. But they do.

    $_57 (2).JPG
    $_57 (3).JPG

    Even through the fog, the general pattern of text in the subdials looks correct. There exists the possibility that this is a pretty good original dial. The decent fellow selling the watch actually goes to the trouble of posting better pictures closer to the sale date, but I'll venture that by then most interested browsers have scanned the listing and moved on without putting it on their watch lists to revisit.

    The other little detail is that this is a 37mm watch. The seller doesn't say so, and you can't make out the case reference number but you can see that it has six digits. That makes it one from the 124XXX series - 37mm.

    I felt good enough about this one that I Ashleyed it - unnecessarily as it turned out. It went for USD1630.

    Result:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    Hope you found some resonance in those case studies.

    [​IMG]
     
    Edited Jan 10, 2015
  2. base615 Jan 10, 2015

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    Nice work on these pick ups.

    If my gambling on sports is anything to go by I'd end up with some right stinkers
     
  3. ICONO Jan 10, 2015

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    Bravo Lou !

    Quite one of the most thoughtful, well articulated, adeptly reasoned articles, I have read in a long time.

    My own personal collection, is largely built on other's disastrous photgraphy, & complete inability to describe what is in front of them.
     
  4. LarryG not KennyG, not OG, just LarryG Jan 10, 2015

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    C'mon Lou, how 'bout one from the stepped in poo late night sortie?
     
  5. dsio Ash @ ΩF Staff Member Jan 10, 2015

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    All I'll add - bet with your head, not over it, minimise your risk wherever you can, don't be afraid to walk away if your gut or mates tell you to, and just like a casino if you screw up and do your money you learn from the lesson and move on.
     
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  6. ulackfocus Jan 10, 2015

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    I hate you Lou.

    (which, if you aren't from the NJ/NY area, you won't recognize as the ultimate compliment)

    F::censored::king great rolls of the dice. Well played sir! :thumbsup:
     
  7. Gavin It's the quiet ones you have to 'watch' out for. Jan 10, 2015

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    Love a good gamble that turns out well but 3!?:thumbsup:
     
  8. shaun hk Fairy nuffer Jan 10, 2015

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    Thank you, that was a great read, very inspiring. Out of interest, how many years of eBay trawling did it take to fish out those gems?
     
  9. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Jan 10, 2015

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    Thanks again LouS for your expertise and knowledge
     
  10. gatorcpa ΩF InvestiGator Staff Member Jan 10, 2015

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    You just need to be vigilant and know what you are looking for. It's a lot like hunting or fishing. Sometimes you can look for weeks and find nothing and then, with no warning, something pops up and bites you in the ass. Like this:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    It was on eBay with a $990 starter and $1,200 BIN. I knew exactly what it was, even without a movement picture.

    Sent the seller an email through eBay and after a couple of pleasent exchanges it was mine for well under the starting bid. I think Dennis still has dibs on it:

    [​IMG]

    I have similar story with a Longines Ultra-Chron Chronometer, also solid 18K. In my experience, a serious first offer will get the seller's attention, but always leave yourself a little negotiating room on the up side.

    Good hunting!
    gatorcpa
     
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  11. redpcar Jan 10, 2015

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    Loved the article. I buy a ton on ebay. One thing I don't agree with Eric about: I rarely ask questions as the seller can post the answers on the listing thus helping others to bid up the price. I love bad pictures which usually indicates a disinterested or uneducated seller (it gives me a chance to sleuth). I search for key words: "knob", "face", "overwound", etc., which also indicates a non-watch seller. Always check their history of what they buy and sell. If I see a bunch of watches in their history, I assume they know what they are doing and I'm less likely to find a treasure. I live for the person who is truly selling Grandpas watch ;-)
     
  12. ulackfocus Jan 10, 2015

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    Damn right I do! ;)
     
  13. pitpro Likes the game. Jan 10, 2015

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    Nice post. Fun to read.
    The horizontal threaded strap on
    the 1945 Compax looks a little out of character
    for you, but it looks great
     
  14. Selbo Jan 10, 2015

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    Yes, I totally agree. I love the random pawn shop specializing in "Frankie Says" t-shirts or similar crap and suddenly stumbles upon a 2852 pie pan described as "watch, running". You've got to know to know what you're doing as the buyer but a thorough evaluation of the seller can lead to some good deals. If the don't know what they have, they don't know the market rate. Sales history is a great place to start.
     
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  15. timeismoney Jan 10, 2015

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    What amazing find! Thanks for sharing, Lou
     
  16. oddboy Zero to Grail+2998 In Six Months Jan 11, 2015

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    There is hope, with knowledge.
     
  17. Gavin It's the quiet ones you have to 'watch' out for. Jan 11, 2015

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    +1
     
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  18. ELV web Jan 11, 2015

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    @LouS what does "ashleyed it" mean?
     
  19. dsio Ash @ ΩF Staff Member Jan 11, 2015

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    Its a reference to when I wanted a particular rare watch quite badly and accidentally bid ~$50,000 for it instead of the ~$5,000 I'd intended, suffice to say, I did win the item.
     
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  20. LouS Mrs Nataf's Other Son Staff Member Jan 11, 2015

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    Thanks gents, glad you found it interesting. Redpcar & Selbo make some good points about assessing the seller.

    I've stepped in my share, but I'm happy to say that I don't stomp in it quite as hard as I did back in the early days. Nowadays, bum buys are mostly limited to parts that I thought would fit but didn't, movements that are more screwed up than they looked and the like.

    You've had some pretty memorable scores and runs, bud. :cool:

    First buy was October 28, the last was December 14. This sort of thing is practically the only way I buy on Ebay these days. Really spectacular watches are much rarer than they used to be, and they are usually more than fully priced. Oh, for the days when there was buffalo on the plains as far as the eye could see! Between Ebay's idiot selling rules and fees and the general spread of watch knowledge, they are gone never to return.

    True, I am more of a traditionalist, but for some months now, I have had a bad case of the Horweens.

    You heard it from the horse's keyboard - to make an outsized snipe to guarantee bagging the watch. You have to be prepared to take some damage if someone else is doing the same.

    The other OF term I used is "wanker's reserve" - that's when someone starts an auction at $1000 or some other sum that is substantially greater than the usual starting bid, and usually close to or above the actual market value of the watch.
     
    Edited Jan 11, 2015