I'm working from home today which means I'm sitting at my desk fielding phone calls and emails but it also means that I can watch today's auctions online in real time. Frankly, I'm in shock. I've bought a gold 353 chronometre and a Smiths deco clock ... and I'm going to have to send over £1200 for the priviledge. Now, the clock was where it should be ... maybe £10 over but I thought I would steal the watch! This is the catalogue photo: We have a snapped stem in the case and no crown (I should have one). In person, this dial is really quite good. I have no idea how the photographer managed to take such a poor picture - it doesn't look like the same watch in hand. But this isn't the worst of it. I am watching every lot that sells go for two to five times the estimate. Some of the estimates are a little low but ... Jesus. Perhaps one lot in 50 is being passed. A handful of items are going at estimate. There was a gold Connie (case heavily worn/polished) on a gold bracelet that went for ~£1800 ... that might have been the best value in the sale as the bracelet was probably worth that. The rest, I just can't catch my breath. Is anyone, or everyone, else seeing the same things?
Yes, lots of crap selling at the price of gold. I remember last weeks auction (christies i think?) where an Ed White was sold for 10kUSD, full of service parts (dial hands and bezel at least) . As if 10k was pocket change... Doesn't make any sense for me, maybe new uninformed buyers buying old watches to speculate?
I've been watching today too - tough I have no real experience - and can't compare. Anyway, saw a nice JLC military style from the 40s. Decided to dip my toe in and bit over £50 over the estimate. Went for about three times the (admittedly low) estimate. Thing is I watched a lot of jewelry go at that auction for roughly what they'd been valued at. The watches on the other hand...
I also keep my ear to the ground with smaller auction houses, I often see some watches sell for 2x what they are worth. Although once a month I pick something up, there are many which sell which have me really scratching my head as to who is buying them, and why they are paying so much.
The thing is, it doesn't feel like it's just watches. It feels like every collectible is selling well with prices above where I'd expect them to be. I was looking at some Georgian glass (last week?) and said that they were worth £700. They sold for £750 plus commission (so £938) ... but my estimate was the retail price, not the hammer price. I'm not usually out by that sort of margin.
It's certainly a thought that I've had for a while: are people divesting themselves of currency? Thus part of the question here - is it just happening at the auctions I'm watching (local and UK based) or are these collectibles increasing in value?
Or ask who ever does the household shopping. Tell a house wife that inflation is what the government says it is.
Way back in 1987 the DJIA crashed some 24% in one day. I had bought a few watches from a dealer in Zurich and a few weeks after the crash I visited him and posited that business must have dropped off. "Oh no, people have switched their funds into real collectibles, like vintage watches, my business is booming." Maybe assets are being pulled out of traditional things like real estate and put into other speculative things like watches.
I think the watch market, particularly high end Omegas and Rolexes, is astronomical now. And getting stronger. I hope this is not a bubble!
When I was a kid, I couldn't understand why the evening news was constantly reporting on the price of a loaf of bread or a pint of milk ... I'm sure we're not going to get back to the inflation levels we saw under Labour in the 70s but it does feel like people are hedging.
Well if you're talking UK. I'm wondering if by the time they sort out this EU mess, the Speedmaster101 price list will read "Prices are in USD $ or UK £ for head only... take your pick!"
Jim I bet if you asked them, you'd find the average Government Minister hasn't got a clue how much a pint of milk or loaf of bread costs.
I've got a nice set of mother of pearl caviar spoons in the van - 6 of them, cased. Think JRM is in the market? I don't know if I'd refuse to sell to him or just mark the price up to something ridiculous.
I'm not sure that I recall that dial layout? They have the 3,6,9 layout then there's the 9,12,3 and the perpetual calendar ... is this a rarer reference? Aren't they all around the £20k mark anyway in very good condition ... and up to £60k for the exotic perpetuals?
