I am reminded of the scene in
"Raiders of the Lost ark." Where Belloc holds the watch up and notes 'buried in the sand for 1000 years, it becomes priceless.'
My mentor noted that the metal alloys used in the 18th and 19th centuries, while crude by modern standards were stable. That there was no reason a common post war II watch could not last on average 500 years if maintained.
Curiously steampunk came along towards the first decade of the 21st century. Partly driven by a glut of pocket watch parts and movements. The last time I saw the old guard from the clock club was at an early maker fair in a last gasp effort to sell their dogma regarding what is and is not worth saving. Watch guts are now an art form.
Recently I read a book on the history of Japanese watchmaking. Which arguably gets it's start in what is now the Silicon Valley and the San Jose Watch company, of Alviso California.
This was one of many American real estate attempts to provide a factory for a city. What is interesting is how this tech migrates. Prior to 1880 Switzerland was a lawless country of a number of city states. When questionable American immigrants were deported to Europe. So a lot of the late 19th century Swiss manufacturing got the tech from the American factory system. Watches for the most part are made with a distribution of labor. One family makes wheels, another mainspring, Balances another. And so forth. By the 1920 and 1930s there were 100s of manufactures. Governments came in and attempted to regulate the trade.
Typically in any system there winds up being three victors. The Triumvitae of Rome. Soda pop manufactures, world powers, television networks etc. This is not to say there are others, but the Big three usually prevail.
Currently the big three in watches are China, Japan and Switzerland. India, probably may replace Japan down the road.
Watches are a commodity. One thing the textbooks tend to depict is the reliance on distribution channels. Those who make good friends with the teamsters tend to have the best options moving goods from place to place. Curiously cultural narrowness and trade barriers tend to affect availability. We tend to idolize the past. The reality is that it was not all that different. There are a lot of people who do not want things to change. In this case the 13th century is just as valid as the 20th century. The 13th century was surprisingly advanced. Most of the people who lived then were happy to be alive.
The globalization of the late 15th century created new traditions. So there can be hundreds of years of culture such as japan between the 16th and 18th, when it id attempt to Brigadoon and isolate itself from the rest of the world. Ironically traditional Japaneese food is more Portigeese than current Italian, which is meso-american. There were no tomatoes in the glory that was Rome. Some of the food and spices they ate has gone extinct, or is not palatable to current tastes. There was a spice plant which was literally worth it's weight in gold. It only grew in one place and no one could transplant it. Curiously it is called the
Laser plant.
So predicting the future from the past, depends on what past one is predicting from.
A lot of prophesy is self fulfilling. One just has to look at eastern Europe or the middle east. Cycles repeat. So it makes sense that one can help the repetition along.
Von Nueman's formulas on unpredictability like game theory, weather forecasting and the stock market. Work fairly well for a three percent return. Problem is they are non linear, so in this case 30% is not 3 percent scaled by 10. They are also fraught with feedback loops. What may work when one person is tossing the dice, is different than when thousands or millions are.
I was part of a few hundred or perhaps a thousand, who helped start the computer revolution in the 1970s. It is amazing how small the community was back then. Sure there was corporate computing. I watched many dreams fail. It is hard to predict what will or will not work. Why Apple and not the better funded Processor Technology? PT sold 1000 computers in 1977 and Apple less than 100. On the other hand Apple had a new computer ready quicker. They were also more open about the software. Any computer from that time would now be a museum piece.
I started collecting in the late 1980s. My interests were first in mechanical dolls and clocks. No one back then was interested in Seamasters or Constellations. Even the Moonwatch was a curiosity. Had I known then what I know now, I would have looked for a better example. I had no contact with some of the more oddball stuff. I did have some sense to become interested in chronograph complications.
Ideas like dial repainting have gone full circle. I took nearly 20 years off. Then this last year I returned with just as much, if not more passion than I had 30 years ago. I became obsessed instead with pipe organs. The pandemic on the other hand showed the futility of pipe organ collecting. When the venues were closed, there was no one to listen to them. Advances in audio reproduction have also made it possible to access the music using much smaller storage units. Although someone gave my dad a car load of piano rolls today. My dad will soon be 92. I think about every room of the house has piano rolls it it. Some quite rare and not for the common upright pianos most associate with Honkey tonk of the old west.
The other irony is if Belloc did pay 10 dollars for a cheap watch in 1938 he paid to much. Such watches sold for a dollar. It is hard to comprehend the changes in monetary value from one generation to the next.
