it is like playing where's waldo
I just noticed the bezel is quite different, e.g. 160 has a dot above 6 on the doubtful watch, but a dot to the left of 160 on the good watch (and seemingly every other good quality picture of 6239s).
Also the 11 pm sub-dial indicator mark clearly points to a different part of the red D
I'm out of ideas beyond that.
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