Clearly I have a lot to learn

[Andy F]

Hello, new member here.
Recently a friend and I have been reeled in by Seamasters. I am currently "rescuing" his 2577 Cal 351 from the errors of a previous repair tech with the help of member Michael e (thank you if you should see this). I had been watching a particular auction just out of curiosity and the result has me scratching my head.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/VINTAGE-OM...ynKqcCPRIk%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc

I have no problem with dirt, DNA, and whatever, on a watch prior to performing a complete service and this watch has that in spades. In my novice opinion t has an unremarkable case, hands with lots of pitting, but what looks like a nice original looking dial. Question for the experts here: What is it that drove this watch to reach what I feel is three times the going rate for an equivalent watch?

 

[cristos71]

I've had a look at the bidding history of the winner and two underbidders, the winner and underbidder have respectively 26% and 66% bidding activity with this seller. IMO pretty high. Although the third placed bidder only has 6% activity with the seller they have withdrawn 12 bids in the last 12 months, which is high IMO.

Based on this and my increasingly cynical mind, I'd say at least two of these bidding accounts are phantom accounts (shills) of the the 18000+ feedback seller and we'll be seeing this watch listed again sometime soon.

 

[Sharp]

Dial is likely lovely under that crystal and it's challenging to find early Radium Seamasters with steel dial furniture in good condition. The lacquer seems to always be deteriorated. Some of us prefer radium dial watches to have original pitted hands with matching lume, rather than molested/enhanced ones. Those 'breguet' style 3, 6, 9, 12 numerals also command a premium.

I don't think it's an unreasonable price. Not a bargain though. I would have bid if the case was less worn.

Just my opinion on it, I'm sure responses will be mixed

 

[mac_omega]

And reaching this price without any movement pic 🤦

 

[DaveK]

A Andy F

.... I had been watching a particular auction just out of curiosity and the result has me scratching my head.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/VINTAGE-OMEGA-SEAMASTER-AUTOMATIC-MENS-WRISTWATCH-NO-RESERVE-10160-3-/233805841342?_trksid=p2047675.l2557&ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&nma=true&si=SfDwf0sLvpsFdaPaMynKqcCPRIk%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc
...

Welcome to the forum Andy. In future posts, please also include some pictures/screenshots and not just the link. Good luck with your search 👍

 

[Tony C.]

cristos71

I've had a look at the bidding history of the winner and two underbidders, the winner and underbidder have respectively 26% and 66% bidding activity with this seller. IMO pretty high

I share your general cynicism, but are those numbers not a reflection of the bidders' activity over the past 30 days only? In which case, too small a sample to necessarily be of significance?

 

[Sharp]

mac_omega

And reaching this price without any movement pic 🤦

At this stage it seems there is a whole second queue of bidders waiting to be involved once a movement picture is revealed, judging from the price I am seemingly not a lone in being at the point of not wanting to see one added.

Watch shopping in 2020 just feels so competitive to the grumpier than ever thirty year old me, willingness to take a gamble is the only competitive edge I have. Maybe 2021 will be the year of blurry dial pictures only 😁😲.

In other worrying news we also just learnt people are still willing to spend 200k$+ at phillips even if the movement is very likely wrong, the world is upside down! 🤨

 

[cristos71]

Tony C.

I share your general cynicism, but are those numbers not a reflection of the bidders' activity over the past 30 days only? In which case, too small a sample to necessarily be of significance?

Well I was trying to find some correlation between the high price for condition vs bidders and bidding patterns and this was the best I could do!

 

[Tony C.]

cristos71

Well I was trying to find some correlation between the high price for condition vs bidders and bidding patterns and this was the best I could do!

You may be on to something, but it does beg the question: why doesn't eBay show the full, related bidding history? When limiting what is displayed to 30 days, it can obscure much more obvious connections between bidders and sellers, which, cynically, may well be eBay's intent.

 

[Dan S]

I like the watch, but not at that price. As I mentioned in a different thread, this is not a good time to be a vintage watch buyer. It's easy for those of us with large collections to hold back when we see things selling at unreasonable prices. But new collectors will need to be very disciplined.

 

[Wlcutter]

I was the third bidder (with 6% of bids with that seller, though I don't think I've ever bid on anything of theirs other than this watch).

For whatever it's worth, this was almost certainly a 2576. This one has, as @Sharp points out above, steel Brueget numerals, plus the lume is *incredibly* nice under that crystal. Given the near-certainty that the watch hasn't been messed with (no caseback marks, scuffed acrylic, clover crown), I don't feel like the movement shot was necessary: you're almost guaranteed to find a very clean cal 342 in there.

As far as going over $1500: the case is somewhat weak, yes. However: it's not polished, and 2576s like this have gone up steadily, and will (I'd guess) continue to.

 

[seekingseaquest]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a non-textured, non-black dial beefy lug Seamaster go for this kind of price at auction. Nice watch, but I was very surprised.

(I tend to also assume shill bidding, but who knows)

 

[Wlcutter]

seekingseaquest

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a non-textured, non-black dial beefy lug Seamaster go for this kind of price at auction. Nice watch, but I was very surprised.

(I tend to also assume shill bidding, but who knows)

The 2576 below sold in France on 10 October for 1410€/$1700. About as close a comp as one could ask for.

 

[Andy F]

DaveK

Welcome to the forum Andy. In future posts, please also include some pictures/screenshots and not just the link. Good luck with your search 👍

Got it Dave K Will do in the future.

 

[default]

prices are relative in todays market.

here is a similar model with same dial configuration listed for 2500 USD

https://www.chrono24.de/omega/1952-omega-seamaster-bumper-vintage-automatic--id15571301.htm

 

[SkunkPrince]

Tony C.

You may be on to something, but it does beg the question: why doesn't eBay show the full, related bidding history? When limiting what is displayed to 30 days, it can obscure much more obvious connections between bidders and sellers, which, cynically, may well be eBay's intent.

I would guess it's the sheer volume of data involved. It costs money to store information, after all.

 

[Wlcutter]

SkunkPrince

I would guess it's the sheer volume of data involved. It costs money to store information, after all.

The originally posted-about watch not only didn't get purchased that first time, it went *again*, selling once more to someone with 2 feedback. I finally won it for just under $1k on its third time being auctioned, and, as expected, it's a pretty incredible 2576 with brueget numerals, full radium lume, a fantastic dial, and an untouched, factory-bright cal 344 going like gangbusters inside.

 

[TexOmega]

Can’t wait for your thread on this Seamaster.

 

[rob#1]

Wlcutter

The originally posted-about watch not only didn't get purchased that first time, it went *again*, selling once more to someone with 2 feedback. I finally won it for just under $1k on its third time being auctioned, and, as expected, it's a pretty incredible 2576 with brueget numerals, full radium lume, a fantastic dial, and an untouched, factory-bright cal 344 going like gangbusters inside.

Congratulations 👎, but... pictures or it didn’t happen! 😉

 

[Andy F]

Wlcutter

The originally posted-about watch not only didn't get purchased that first time, it went *again*, selling once more to someone with 2 feedback. I finally won it for just under $1k on its third time being auctioned, and, as expected, it's a pretty incredible 2576 with brueget numerals, full radium lume, a fantastic dial, and an untouched, factory-bright cal 344 going like gangbusters inside.

Congrats on being the "last man standing" on this one. I guess my original astonishment was valid as the watch sold for nowhere near the original (first auction) price. Sanity in the market is showing signs of life.