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Bubble in vintage watches prices?

  1. sdre Sep 22, 2017

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    Hey all.

    From what I gathered so far, it seems vintage prices for rolexes in particular has been climbing. E.g a 16800 was going for 3k to 4.5k in 2012-2014...but it's climbed to close to double what it's worth now.

    So I'm wondering if there's anything stopping these prices? Has there ever been a reset in prices for vintage watches in the past?

    Will prices continue to rise or at least tank?

    Appreciate all constructive feedback and discussions! =)
     
  2. No.15 Sep 22, 2017

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    I think prices are going to tank. From my observations it seems used watches are taking longer to sell now than they did even 6 months ago. I think buyers are feeling the pinch and slowing down. Just my opinion and I could be totally wrong as I have no expertise in this area.
     
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  3. sdre Sep 22, 2017

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    Thanks for replying! Yeah I am thinking as such. If Trump does go ahead and go to war with NK... I'm thinking it be the start of a global economic recession and prices will/may fall if owners need to start liquidating
     
  4. Fritz genuflects before the mighty quartzophobe Sep 22, 2017

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    Gee I hope not.... I've invested dozens of dollars in Timex Marlins in the last few weeks.

    If doofus Trump keeps running his mouth and/or has his way with North Korea the value of my half dozen Omegas may or may not plunge.... but I think it may be the least of our worries if these idiots start lobbing nukes at each other.
     
  5. No.15 Sep 22, 2017

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    Whoa. How did the prices of used watches somehow turn political? If I wanted to read about that shit I would go to reddit or something. :(
     
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  6. Kmart Sep 22, 2017

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    Watches don't exist in a vacuum. I don't really see how you can have a discussion on the state of the market without bringing up politics to some extent...
     
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  7. sdre Sep 22, 2017

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    Haha yeah. I mean, inevitably, everything's connected so I guess it's wise to keep abreast of everything and to hold on to cash (rather than assets) when shit hits the fan.
     
  8. No.15 Sep 22, 2017

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    Really? Is that a door that needs to be opened? Also I guess I should have been more clear as it was not politics being brought up, but some kind of moral equivalence with Trump/KJ and nuclear war. Seems like bashing and FUD to me.

    EDIT to ADD: Just to be clear I am so sick of the games being played in the American media that when I come here I just want to read about watches, cars, food etc. Fun stuff, so that is why I am complaining.
     
    Edited Sep 22, 2017
  9. Fritz genuflects before the mighty quartzophobe Sep 22, 2017

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    someone mentioned "a breast" a few comments up....can't we discuss that instead?
     
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  10. Screwbacks Sep 22, 2017

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    :thumbsdown:::confused2::
     
  11. morningtundra Sep 22, 2017

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    I think it might have something to do with all these vintage reissues and homage lines driving interest in the originals...Tudor Heritage comes to mind. I'd rather own an original vintage example than a reissued modern interpretation. Faux vintage just seems so naff.
     
  12. dsio Ash @ ΩF Staff Member Sep 22, 2017

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    This site is not about politics, its a watch collector community for people who want to relax, unwind and chill out after a hard day pretending to work at the office, if you have strongly held political beliefs that you feel you must share with the world there is a place for that and its called Facebook and/or Twitter.
     
  13. dougiedude Carpe horologium! Sep 22, 2017

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    In answer to the OP's original question, instead of political thread drift :rolleyes:, I think prices rarely go down (esp. with Rolex), but they might level off for awhile. Other brands, it is very hard to tell...

    Best to just buy what makes you happy.

    I hate reading threads about whether my purchase is a 'wise investment right now' ::facepalm2::...
     
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  14. bristnj Sep 22, 2017

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    As prices go up, collectors become more picky about the overall quality of the piece. At $2500, it may have been a no brainer. At $5000 it had to be in really good shape. At $10,000 (or more) your looking for a rarity, condition, provenance, etc. Insert name here (I.e. Omega, Heuer, Breitling, Rolex, etc) Of course this is generalized and doesn't apply to everyone's habits. That being said, I doubt the vintage market will crash. It's like lakefront property........just so much stock out there, and no more.
     
  15. sdre Sep 22, 2017

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    Apologies. Wasn't my intention to bring politics.
     
  16. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector Sep 22, 2017

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    It's not one of the two significant watch seasons at the moment.;)
    You do know the watch seasons.

    https://omegaforums.net/threads/where-are-all-the-mint-136-011-135-011-found-it.50383/#post-605238
     
  17. COYI Sep 23, 2017

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    I think think the state of the vintage watch market is certainly a legitimate topic to discuss on this forum including how geopolitics might impact it. You don't have to read the thread if it's not interesting to you.

    On the one hand I think we have recently seen a big increase in people interested in vintage watches which has pushed up demand. Supply is of course limited to a degree as they are not being made any more.

    On the other had we are seeing huge bubbles across many asset classes like stocks, bonds and property which I think have their root cause in central bank policy of low interest rates and QE. This is unlikely to end well when monetary policy is eventually tightened. The vintage watch market does seem to show some characteristics of a bubble where large price rises seem to beget further increases and attract more speculators into the market.

    Vintage watches like other collectibles are correlated to other markets so will not remain unscathed if there is a downturn. At least you can wear your watches and enjoy them.
     
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  18. nixf6 Sep 23, 2017

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    The world economy is not about to tank anytime soon , were still not out of the 2008 recession.Give it 10 or so years and 2009 to 2012 will be back in all asset and collectable classes.
     
  19. jimmyd13 Sep 23, 2017

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    Watches have moved from their original design use of being an accessible and reliable method of telling the time to being a fashion accessory.

    Public awareness of vintage watches has increased exponentially through their exposure by interweb sites such as Hodinkee and the hundreds of vloggers on YouTube and similar. An increased awareness; increased demand; and, fixed availability has only one conclusion: higher prices. Of course, fashion is fickle. The real question is "will there come a point where the demand for vintage watches drops?". That will be the biggest single effect on the assigned value of a vintage watch but it is far from the only one.

    There will always be collectors. There will always be those who want one, nice, watch. There will always be a demand. Particularly for specific, desirable, attractive, watches. I have little doubt that vintage Rolex will always perform - the company is, and always has been, a master of product promotion.

    Men's watches have outperformed women's watches hugely. Why is that? Well, a man can only get away will a limited amount of jewellery. A single, plain, ring; a watch; a pen; and, cufflinks. This is where he can demonstrate self expression; fashion sense; wealth; or, knowledge. Until that changes, there will always be a value for vintage watches. Where that value lies because of changes in geopolitical is debatable, but such debates are impossible to conclude definitively. It's easier to ascribe a value to fiat currencies than it is to do the same for a watch and people far more informed than I have lost (and gained) fortunes over the years trying to do that.

    Suffice to say that in times of political change, assets have proven a more reliable investment than currencies.
     
  20. COYI Sep 23, 2017

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    I think I have read that the current US expansion, although weak, is already the longest on record. I doubt it will last another 10 years
     
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