Forums Latest Members
  1. citizenrich Metal Mixer! May 16, 2016

    Posts
    2,617
    Likes
    5,514
    I live in the United States and most of my meager assets are denominated in sawbucks and tubmans.

    Question*

    Does anyone else think the AUD is like crazy undervalued relative to the other "Western" (I realize this is odd nomenclature) currencies? And, by Western, I mean of course the USD lol. The € is the real Queen mum of currencies.

    I had purchased some CAD's and AUD's (no FX contracts for me, I buy and sell physical money) back when both currencies were trading @ like .67 : USD. I also bought some £'s @ 1.36.

    I'm still long but reduced AUD by 75% when she touched .76+

    The Loonie seems to have more relative strength right now.


    Anyway, blah, blah, blah - I know we've got some heavy hitters and sophisticated motherfuckers 'round this joint and currency is definitely very apropos of vintage watch collecting.

    Anyone have any hunches, ideas or predictions for the future? I know it's commodity related but AUD weakness looks like a steal to me in the 60's...


    *disclosure - I'm not seeking or soliciting investment advice - just having a friendly conversation with fellow watch lovers.
     
    Edited May 16, 2016
  2. STANDY schizophrenic pizza orderer and watch collector May 16, 2016

    Posts
    16,311
    Likes
    44,712
    AUD will be low for a while with election in two months, interest rates cut .25 about a week or two ago and another 2x .25 cuts predicted. (June and November)
    This all tied into a slump in mining ( price of iron ore down from over $1.20+ to under 50cents over last year ) and the China production numbers disappointing today.

    Funny I was listening to the business review on the news whilst typing..
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  3. shaun hk Fairy nuffer May 16, 2016

    Posts
    1,425
    Likes
    1,516
    I'm no financial professional but in my humble the AUD is very closely tied to the Chinese economy and their demand for commodities. Not so sure about long term prospects, is China a house of cards about to collapse or can the mandarins in charge keep things stable?
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  4. lillatroll May 16, 2016

    Posts
    2,690
    Likes
    4,170
    Three years ago the norwegian kroner was strong against the pound sterling (100gbp cost 800nok) now it is weak (100 gbp cost 1173 nok) and it is reckoned that it will take another 3 years to get back to the a similar level to what it was three years ago. I guess the real question is how long are willing to wait for it to raise again/how % points do you need to make in relation to time and other potential investment returns?
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  5. CanberraOmega Rabbitohs and Whisky Supporter May 16, 2016

    Posts
    5,570
    Likes
    6,208
    In the mid 60c, I'd agree the AUD is a buy. I think over the next 6 months, the AUD will continue t weaken, back to 70ish.
    I've got a lot in USD and EUR denominated investment, so I'm enjoying the fall
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  6. Archer Omega Qualified Watchmaker May 16, 2016

    Posts
    26,338
    Likes
    65,034
    China is dumping steel to keep people employed, and it's hurting steel production (and therefore iron ore demand) all over the world. It's not going to get better any time soon. You are going to see a lot more steel producers go out of business before this is over...
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  7. plowjockey May 16, 2016

    Posts
    61
    Likes
    34
    Brexit vote will tell a lot too.
     
    citizenrich likes this.
  8. chronos May 17, 2016

    Posts
    331
    Likes
    524
    Speaking of weak currencies:

    From the 1950ies to 1970, one USD cost about 4.3 Swiss Francs.

    When I made my first holiday in the USA in 2002, one USD cost about 1.5 Swiss Franc.

    During my last holiday in the US in August 2011, one USD cost about 0.72 Swiss Franc!
    So hotels, shopping, eating and everything else was all of a sudden more than half the price off!

    As the Swiss National Bank unfortunately intervened with a couple of Billions of Dollars in order to correct the overrated Swiss Franc and to protect Swiss economy:rolleyes:, it's now back to parity more or less...
    Lucky me that I had a real big shopping spree back in 2011...:D

    Here's the link to back up what I wrote (it takes a while to load the site...)
    http://fxtop.com/de/historische-wec...1&P=&I=1&DD2=17&MM2=05&YYYY2=2016&btnOK=Gehen
     
    Edited May 17, 2016
  9. ViaAppia May 17, 2016

    Posts
    103
    Likes
    105
    You want to talk about currency exchange, I went to Ukraine earlier this year for business and even with the 3x foreigner prices I was charged on a lot of stuff it still wouldn't have dented a 12 year old's piggy bank. Snatched up some nice stuff at antique stores and flea markets that would have cost literally 10-15x more in US or Europe.