Hmm, You are very right about that.

 

It's not cherry-picked, it's not the trough, and it's not irrelevant. You probably don't realize that the nasdaq took around 15 years to regain its all time high. Even right before the financial crash it was still less than 50% of its peak. Yet I'm sure you would agree that during this whole time the technology it represented was growing in popularity, would you not?

 

Choosing the height of one of the most extreme bubbles in market history is not cherry-picking? Please. The fact that, as you point out, it took around 15 years for the NASDAQ to regain its all time high, underscores how extreme it was. Do you know that the (Japanese) Nikkei was close to 40,000 in December of 1990, and remained far below that peak until this year, when it has managed to break 33k? That's ~35 years! That peak was no more of an accurate proxy for property values in 1990 than the Nasdaq 2000 peak was for internet popularity.

The fact that the internet was growing and becoming more popular while the Nasdaq showed little growth is essentially a reflection of the absurd valuations reached in 2000. For those 15 years, INTEL, the chip maker which was one of the corporate pillars of the internet foundation, shows a chart very much like the one that you show above.

My original market reference, to which you objected, was this:

In November 2022, when Bitcoin hit its high of ~66k, the DJI was at 33.7k, today it is at almost an identical level, yet Bitcoin's value has been cut in half.

It demonstrates the point that though the broader markets have been relatively stable over that period of time, Bitcoin fell 50%. So as it was not caught in any downdraft related to a broader market sell-off, why the crash? Again, it seems clear to me, and many others, that the continuing, damning chain of events relating to the cryptocurrency industry has seriously damaged Bitcoin's popularity, while the radical changes in central bank policies have also had a major, negative impact.

Feel free to produce a counter argument if you like.

 

You cite bitcoin's peak and then say it's cherry-picking when I point out nasdaq's peak. You're not being consistent.

No, your original market reference, to which I objected, was what I quoted above.

Yes, that is my exact point.

Clearly (even though it took you a few posts to elucidate) you think the crash of the nasdaq bubble and others like it were the result of speculative excess while the crash of bitcoin's bubble is due to fundamental properties. That's fine. I don't have a strong agreement or disagreement. I'm just saying that it is far from certain either way.

 

Feel free to explain why it peaked like that. Observers who are far more sophisticated than I have argued that the market is dominated by a small number of players, and that price manipulation is a very real issue.

False. This was my first market reference:

https://omegaforums.net/threads/are-members-invested-in-bitcoin.121919/page-62#post-2199325

the one that you refer to was made in response to your subsequent claim that "By that logic the internet was more popular in 2000 than 2010."

I don't doubt that there was speculative excess in Bitcoin's 'twin peaks', but I believe that there is plenty of evidence that its growth was closely related to broader market excesses, monetary policies, and the lack of regulation. For those reasons, and others, I don't consider it to be analogous to the tech bubble.

 

Huh?

 

I was referring to the first stock market reference, not Bitcoin market reference.

 

Ripple (XRP) just came out on top Vs the SEC and now is only the second token after bitcoin with clarity. Currently up over 70% on daily trading and the FOMO has not even started. This really could be the coin that breaks the internet.

 

I admit to knowing next to nothing about this case, but this lawyer, who appears to be supportive of Bitcoin, appears to know quite a bit, is skeptical of the court's decision, and believes that it will be appealed:

https://twitter.com/BryanJacoutot/status/1679539619312853028

 

It was expected to be appealed by whoever the losing side was so there is no surprise there. The case will be heard in 2024 and until then XRP is not a security meaning all the exchanges that delisted will reinstate it. The lawyers on the side of XRP @ James K Filan, John E Deaton, Jeremy Hogan and Stuart Alderoty consider it a huge win for XRP and crypto in general and feel the Supreme Court will side with Judge Torre's ruling.

 

I was thinking about you when I read the ruling today. I held on to a little but I got out of almost everything other than btc and eth as it’s just we’re I believe the possibility for greater adaptation exists but those are just my thoughts.
I just see too many rug pulls and scams in the little coins but I could certainly be wrong. I had a kinda hearty laugh today as my coworker chases ever weird little coin that comes out but when I read him the XRP ruling he started banging his desk telling me he dumped a bunch of xrp for some shit coins he was chasing. I didn’t rub it in he was laughing at himself.

I’m interested in seeing if the black rock Bitcoin fund comes to pass (the same blackrock who used to tear apart Bitcoin thinks it’s now a great thing for people) and see if Bitcoin repeats its pattern of beating it’s previous ATH after crashes (damn 90% crashes this one wasn’t that bad) at least it’s interesting. Shoot Bitcoin was at 16,500 after FTX and it was dead for the 400th time.

 

I am personally delighted with the outcome because I have been quite invested in the case, it has also given me a greater understanding of American securities law and opened my eyes to how utterly despicable the SEC is.

The best take away is this win allows a broader adoption of Ripple and XRP by the bricks and mortar financial institutions who have been sitting on the sidelines awaiting the verdict. The stars seem to be aligning with FEDNOW and ISO20022 and I feel XRP will carry others like XDC, XLM, QUANT, LINK, HBAR etc into this new frontier wherever it may go.

The ruling from Judge Torres does however put a target on any crypto that has had direct sales to institutional investors, an IPO or has staking ability. I can see the SEC latching onto this and hitting ADA,ALGO et al and I don't believe ETH will come out unharmed.

As for Blackrock and the Bitcoin (ETFs), I see this going nuclear in Q3 23 up to Q2 24 coupled with the fact 2024 is another Bitcoin halving year so it will hit a new ATH. (not financial advice)

You are right to avoid the temptation of shitcoins as there are so many bad faith actors in the space that risk vs reward is not worth it. if you are not in the first 8 hours when a coin starts to break out you are on the losing side of it to make any real gains. I did very well with Shiba Inu but thats the exception rather than the rule and I still held on too long before I sold.

I honestly feel this ruling from the judge is a watershed moment for all of crypto and the eventual acceptance by mainstream investors is inevitable. There is still work to clear the space of the crooks and I am adding Gary Gensler as the worst bad faith actor of them all. That man almost cost the USA the lead. I see him moving on quietly to some other posting....

 

My concern with bullish news in the financial markets is that they usually come near the tops (or at least short term tops). Meanwhile bearish news usually comes near bottoms. I still remember how people thought Meta was doomed with its metaverse investments (stock traded at $90 at that time), yet now its trading at $300.

This time I read even Blackrock and Vanguard has substantial stakes on bitcoin miners like $MARA and $RIOT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-now-owns-560-million-175847747.html
"Just two years ago, Vanguard Group said on its website that the long-term investment case of cryptocurrencies is “weak.” Now, it is Marathon Digital’s largest shareholder." (Second largest is currently Blackrock).

According to the article, Vanguard have $7.2 trillion assets under management and currently about $500 million is in bitcoin miner stocks.

 

I guess it makes sense they would move into miner stocks as one article I was reading was speculating miners may start holding on to their blocks and not selling with the etf and the halvening coming (possible spot etf) I should say. Who knows we will just wait and see but that was interesting seeing Facebook do such an about face sometimes things get too beaten up and Facebook was much unloved for a while but they have such a user base on now threads seems to be growing faster than expected