A little quarantine/what goes around - part 5

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As the winner of a most wonderful Seiko Dynamic, I am privileged to "pay it forward" by offering yet another watch to the OF community. This one's a keeper the likes of which rarely trade around here. The lottery will be "automatic" as is the watch itself.

How it works:
RULES:

1

Watch is being wound as we speak, and will shortly be worn. I will wear it for a few days and then take it off and let it run down. Which should take a few days.

2
The contest is: guess how long it runs? Reply to this thread with the time [HH:MM] you predict it will stop.
Whoever is closest, wins!

3
Watch is set to GMT. 12 hour cycle, 720 combinations. If there are more than 720 entrants, there will be a second watch* [or watch-related item]

4
Second person to guess the brand can guess the time twice!

Images and descriptions will forthcomings.
Thanks, @WYO_Watch!
 
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Nobody said there would be math!
Math-free variant:
post WRUW with a clear shot of your own dial.

It runs for 38 hours, and stops 4:36pm
recorded as: 4:36
 
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It will take a few days to run down AFTER you take it off?
 
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It will take a few days to run down AFTER you take it off?
Or less. Probably less.
It has been awhile, and I'm not sure where the reserve is myself.
 
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It's a beast.
44mm across the face. 22mm lugs, 12mm wide.
Flat mineral crystal, clear mineral caseback.
Its a "Lefty" variant, with crown on the left of the dial.

Never polished.
 
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I kNow that Very unusual It proteCTs A crown

I just dont know my GMT, so ill guess 2:35
 
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It does! And this crown does need protecting owing to its size.
Fortunately, if you are right-handed and wear your watch on the left wrist,
the crown should always stay out of harm's way.
 
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Hey!
Just wait a cotton pickin' minute here boy, ah say boy!

<channeling Foghorn Leghorn>

If two or more people pick as follows:

Member A - 14:45
Member B - 02:45

Both times recorded simply as "2:45".

However..................however!

The watch stops in the middle of the night, at 02:45:00:02!

The time on the dial simply shows the big hand on the 9 and the little hand almost on the 3.

So are there two winners?

Or should you monitor the watch 24/7 to establish exactly when it stopped?

This a game changer and great minds must come together with a solution to this enigma.
 
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Hey!
Just wait a cotton pickin' minute here boy, ah say boy!

<channeling Foghorn Leghorn>

If two or more people pick as follows:

Member A - 14:45
Member B - 02:45

Both times recorded simply as "2:45".

However..................however!

The watch stops in the middle of the night, at 02:45:00:02!

The time on the dial simply shows the big hand on the 9 and the little hand almost on the 3.

So are there two winners?

Or should you monitor the watch 24/7 to establish exactly when it stopped?

This a game changer and great minds must come together with a solution to this enigma.
Only the first person to claim a given time gets it.
The second will have to choose again.
I will try to catch anyone making that error 🙁
 
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Or should you monitor the watch 24/7 to establish exactly when it stopped?
The watch is being watched by a 24/7 watch-dog.