A glimpse into the intersection of an economic crisis, politics, and vintage watch dealers...

Tony C. · Sep 19, 2015

@WatchVaultNYC

Thanks for the interesting anecdotal feedback.

Germany is, of course, widely imagined to be the economic rock of the EU, and while it is superficially in better shape than most other members, and obviously has a strong manufacturing base, the facade is hiding major structural problems. Germany has been the prime economic beneficiary of the EU, and by a wide margin. As the Union continues its current, downward spiral, though, German companies will suffer disproportionately. Beyond that, and likely to prove far more important, is Deutsche Bank. In order to avoid boring readers with great detail, I'll simply let this handy graphic do the talking:

cristos71 · Sep 19, 2015

Tony C.
@WatchVaultNYC

Thanks for the interesting anecdotal feedback.

Germany is, of course, widely imagined to be the economic rock of the EU, and while it is superficially in better shape than most other members, and obviously has a strong manufacturing base, the facade is hiding major structural problems. Germany has been the prime economic beneficiary of the EU, and by a wide margin. As the Union continues its current, downward spiral, though, German companies will suffer disproportionately. Beyond that, and likely to prove far more important, is Deutsche Bank. In order to avoid boring readers with great detail, I'll simply let this handy graphic do the talking:

That is just mind boggling and extremely worrying at the same time 😲

Talking of Deutsche Bank, I was a business customer of ABNAMRO for more than a decade and then the small business division was sold to DB.

Now, was that a real headache rearranging new accounts and bank details with all of our customers and suppliers, not to mention the transition in house to new banking programs/systems and then trying to couple that to my bookkeeping system. The fact that there was no DB branch in the large Dutch city where I live, was also a slight hindrance, but OK, it was necessary and how often do you need to change bank as a business?

Well around 12 months later I was informed by automated computer generated letter that my two businesses as well my then partners further four businesses were too small for DB´s ``Small Business Division`` as DB had decided to concentrate only on businesses with a turnover of 5 million or more each, so could we please arrange another bank for ourselves within the next 4 months as we were not welcome at DB anymore.

To say the least I was not amused and this experience only served to reinforce my feelings over banks and the banking system.

🤬 :whipped:

🫨 🤬

🫨🤬

🫨

micampe · Sep 19, 2015

Tony C.
And that's not all. It is now the case that cash transactions above a couple of hundred Euros are essentially forbidden. There have also been increasingly strict limits placed on cash transactions in France, Italy and Spain. These are, of course, heavy-handed efforts to control (and increase) tax collection. Ironically, through, the predictable result is that shop owners and their customers become increasingly irritated by such regulations, and, rather than meekly complying, seek instead to avoid at least some recorded transactions, and ultimately feel quite justified in not paying the increasingly high taxes.

The irony is in the fact that those restrictions happened because shop owners and customers (not only watches) were already doing that, as anyone who’s been to any of those countries for more than a couple days knows (I don't have experience with France).

Tony C. · Sep 19, 2015

micampe
The irony is in the fact that those restrictions happened because shop owners and customers (not only watches) were already doing that, as anyone who’s been to any of those countries for more than a couple days knows (I don't have experience with France).

That's not accurate. While it is, of course, true that many small business owners worldwide participate in a certain amount of tax avoidance, that is not why these type of extreme regulations are created. They are created because these countries are completely broke, and as stating the obvious and defaulting on the debts is politically unacceptable, politicians choose instead to attempt to squeeze blood from rocks.

Tax avoidance may be used as the excuse for such regulation, but the primary causes are severe budget crises.

I would agree that there are almost certainly trends of increasing tax evasion in such countries, but for reasons already stated, it is ludicrous to think that applying greater pressure through idiotic regulations will lead to anything but the opposite of the intended results.

gatorcpa · Sep 19, 2015

To add a little bit to Tony's excellent response, for politicians, it's the easy way out to burden the small to medium size businesses that make up the bulk of the economy of most western countries. The US has been doing this for decades (most famously by the Nixon and Reagan administrations) and it's slowly strangling the middle class here.

The alternative is to go after the truly wealthy. The issues there are two fold. First, it's the wealthy individuals and corporations that pay for the expensive media driven campaigns through almost unlimited contributions. Politicians don't usually bite the hands that feed them. Second, the wealthy are far more mobile than the middle class. Increase the tax burden and they'll just move to where taxes are cheaper and regulations are less burdensome.

No easy answers here.
gatorcpa

ulackfocus · Sep 19, 2015

Well, anarchy is certainly an answer, albeit not an easy one. 😁😜

gatorcpa · Sep 19, 2015

U ulackfocus
Well, anarchy is certainly an answer, albeit not an easy one. 😁😜

That's been tried. See Czar Alexander III, William McKinley and World War I.

We're still dealing with the aftermath of that debacle 100 years later.
gatorcpa

Kringkily · Sep 19, 2015

Knowing how to constantly stay ahead of the market is key. The watch business is unpredictable and yes losing sources from one area you have to make up with another. If you just sit on the same business model you are going to die off. Most of the dealers that I have heard from complaining about the change in market is because they got too comfortable with the old ways and did not keep up with the times.

MSNWatch · Sep 19, 2015

Kringkily
Knowing how to constantly stay ahead of the market is key. The watch business is unpredictable and yes losing sources from one area you have to make up with another. If you just sit on the same business model you are going to die off. Most of the dealers that I have heard from complaining about the change in market is because they got too comfortable with the old ways and did not keep up with the times.

This is exactly why we are seeing technology disrupt so many well established businesses and the bigger players like apple, google and facebook are dominating like no other companies in history.

citizenrich · Sep 19, 2015

Collectibles and fine jewelry have always been used as substitute money for nations with aggressive asset taxes and tariffs and/or as a simple inflation hedge in nations who tend to shit all over their own currency.

The first thing they taught us in b school was M x V = P x Q

Lol I'm still not sure what it means but apparently it's a simple formula to explain all this crap.

Tony C. · Sep 20, 2015

citizenrich
The first thing they taught us b school was M x V = P x Q

Lol I'm still not sure what it means but apparently it's a simple formula to explain all this crap.

Money x Velocity = Pussy x Quaaludes?

Nah, my college memories are a bit fuzzy, so that's probably not right. 🙄

WatchVaultNYC · Sep 20, 2015

Tony C.
Money x Velocity = Pussy x Quaaludes?

Nah, my college memories are a bit fuzzy, so that's probably not right. 🙄

It's "Money X Viagra = Pussy X Quantity", which makes perfect sense.

gatorcpa · Sep 20, 2015

citizenrich
Lol I'm still not sure what it means but apparently it's a simple formula to explain all this crap.

Just in case someone just wandered in and wanted to know what the hell we're talking about:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange

gatorcpa

Spacefruit · Sep 20, 2015

Thank you.

I see a division in society, between those who create wealth, and those who count it, watching the creators create. (Including those Watchers who intend taking a share of it)

The irony is the more the creators are "controlled" by the watchers, the less they create.

Causing problems for all.

citizenrich · Sep 20, 2015

Tony C.
Money x Velocity = Pussy x Quaaludes?

Nah, my college memories are a bit fuzzy, so that's probably not right. 🙄

You seem like you were a fun date

wanna go out?

devnull · Sep 20, 2015

Spacefruit
Thank you.

I see a division in society, between those who create wealth, and those who count it, watching the creators create. (Including those Watchers who intend taking a share of it)

The irony is the more the creators are "controlled" by the watchers, the less they create.

Causing problems for all.

You are obliquely quoting Heinlein:

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded - here and there, now and then - are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

This is known as "bad luck.”

citizenrich · Oct 22, 2016

Spacefruit
Thank you.

I see a division in society, between those who create wealth, and those who count it, watching the creators create. (Including those Watchers who intend taking a share of it)

The irony is the more the creators are "controlled" by the watchers, the less they create.

Causing problems for all.

Please forgive me for resurrecting a dead thread but when I saw this chart I remembered your comment.

I think it perfectly summarizes your observation in a simple graph.

Everything wrong with modern America is encapsulated in this chart...

Tony C. · Oct 22, 2016

Yes, Rich, that's an interesting and useful chart. Here's a more obvious one, but it's important that people understand what the Government and those in power have (predictably) done since credit (i.e. "money") creation was untethered from gold (which cannot be created out of thin air) in 1972. (Note that those numbers are trillions.)

STANDY · Oct 22, 2016

Got to love a good clock to help out......

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/

Darlinboy · Oct 22, 2016

..

A glimpse into the intersection of an economic crisis, politics, and vintage watch dealers...

Tony C.

cristos71

micampe

Tony C.

gatorcpa

ulackfocus

gatorcpa

Kringkily

MSNWatch

citizenrich

Tony C.

WatchVaultNYC

gatorcpa

Spacefruit

citizenrich

devnull

citizenrich

Tony C.

STANDY

Darlinboy

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