Sold at Sotheby's for $3,200, excluding commission.

 

I wonder what was the description like?

 

Is this a real Cartier with their little marks that is traceable perhaps on the lugs?

 

Any marks on the lugs were removed along with mucho metal. I believe OP MP is inferring that it's not a very good Cartier signature.

 

Actually, no. I'm not sure if it's original or not. I'm not familiar enough with Cartier signings - but even it it was, it's worth less than the commission.

 

I'd argue with the inventory number on the lug present and verified, it would easily be worth what it sold for. Sure looks repainted though.

 

It's just a standard UG automatic in rather poor condition.

No way IMO. Without the Cartier signing, this would be worth less than $300. If the Cartier signing is original? Not much more.

 

Numbers don't lie.

 

In a meaningful way, they do, in fact. Sometimes, prices can be reached because of ignorance.

That ignorance can be brought on by a number of things, in this instance. For one, the reserve price was $3,000. Secondly, people not familiar with UG, but with an understanding that UG is hot right now, might think a Cartier signed UG is super desirable, without knowing anything about their market. Numbers can lie. Anecdotes are not valuable as evidence of market trends.

This guy won't be able to resell for the cost of commission or slightly above it.

 

I never commented on the intelligence of it. You are arguing from a moral stance. It's worth what someone paid today. Tomorrow may be different.

 

I want to give you a hug buddy, cause I know you love UG and are disappointed with the recent inflation in prices. But most likely the seller negotiated with the auction house to set the reserve, so it must be worth something to him...

 

Rman,

I recognize my resentment for the rising value of UG's, but this is an instance where inflation cannot explain it.

I know the UG market. Not all purchases in the world are sold for what they are "worth". A Rolex replica sold for $5,000 is not worth $5,000 in a meaningful sense, nor is the JLC Diver watch that a great guy from this forum bought at the Goodwill for $15 bucks worth $15 bucks. If we're talking about market value - there are set ranges. UG mania is making ignorant people do strange things.

 

I am arguing from a market stance. A single sale does not provide useful data.

 

Well I'm not sure we're talking about anomalies here. There's a Tricompax for sale for $17500 next door, and it will sell.
This was a very undervalued culty brand a few years ago and now the cat's out of the bag.
I'm not gonna call this example high quality, but the claim of "swindle" in your byline means deception so I'm with you if the dial is fake, which I believe it may be. Otherwise, lets agree to disagree.

 

The deception would have come from the auction house. Auction reserves are suppose to imply something about the market value of a watch and some buyers rely on that number as a kind of benchmark.

If this had started at, say, $100, I very much expect the end value would have been different. But anyway, let's call it there.

 

The definition of value is what someone is willing to pay at any given moment. In the moment of this auction, this watch was worth $3200 plus commission. The seller and Sotheby's are very lucky. Perhaps the buyer will wear and cherish this watch for the rest of his days and never realize that he overpaid. Then next time someone tries to sell it, however, the value will almost surely go back down to $100-$200.

 

Which is why I said "market value", which has a different meaning. "Value" in the terms you've described is functionally useless here. But we both seem to understand each other.

 

Having worked as an economist and a lawyer, I'm amused at how often I see the above debate played out in numerous contexts. Markets are not always efficient and information is not always cost-free, especially in periods of rapidly fluctuating demand and/or supply. Whether you see this transaction as a "swindle", as Modest_Proposal does and Rman does not, depends largely on whether you think this market should be more efficient (usually seen as a good thing), and who you think should bear the cost of making it more efficient. And it isn't necessarily the case that this was such a lucky transaction for Sotheby's. A few too many transactions like this one, and watch collectors will figure out that Sotheby's isn't a good place to buy vintage watches. Once that happens, it won't be so good for sellers, either, and they will lose that business.
I happen to know a lot about certain esoteric vintage musical instruments that usually aren't as pricey as, say, Stradivari violins but can still sell for $1,000 - $15,000. Sotheby's and Christie's are usually not the best places to buy or sell these items, as there are specialist dealers and auctioneers who are far more experienced. If one gets included in a Sotheby's or Christie's sale, it often sells at a fraction of the price it would fetch in the specialized market, and more rarely, for far more. It just isn't worth it for those large auction houses to fully develop the expertise in those smaller-ticket items, though they do have musical instrument departments. I don't know if that is the case with vintage watches, but I do know there is very little regulation in the auction world, so buyer and seller beware.

 

"Although we often hear that data speak for themselves, their voices are often soft and sly".
Quote found in Edward R. Tufte - Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative.

 

I think a comparison could be made.

Some weeks ago, I was speaking with Eric Wind, who works in the watch department of Christie's. He said that more or less all of the dedicated auctions at Christies are either Rolex or Patek. The Speedmaster sale that just took place took some convincing.

I expect the specialists working there are most knowledgeable with those two brands. Others that are less well known and don't command the same prices will slip through the cracks or be misevaluated by the team, leading to this situation. There might also be some growing pains, as Universal Geneve seems to be new to the mainstream block. When tricompax's start selling for $25k, they listen, but it will take time for them to evaluate correctly. That being said, I find it hard to believe that any auctioneer would swallow a $3,000 auction reserve as "fair" in this case. Throw in a lemon every once in a while, fluff it up in a very high class auction block (which it was) and people make equivalencies that shouldn't be there.