2998 on Ebay - A case study

[Spacefruit]

Cruising around ebay last week, I watched this watch sell for around $15,000:


Without looking at descriotion (yet). we have a BASE1000 bezel, a SWISS MADE dial, straightlug case, alpha hands.

$15,000 for a 2998 is cheap, no? Lets look closely and first we have to see what the reference is.



A 2998-2.

I would expect a BASE1000 bezel, which we have. We need a radium dial, with short indices on the minute subdial.

First the dial - we see the long indices, so its not an early dial



Also note the state of the markers, which look dirty and lumpy, perhaps adjusted.




Look at the surface of the dial, on the lip of the subdial - this is blotching which is probably endemic on the dial.

In summary, the dial is SWISS MADE with a small step. I think it is a later 2998 dial, but I would want to make sure its not a distressed service dial. The only way to be sure is to look at the back of the dial. In any event, this dial does not contribute greatly to my valuation.

Now the bezel -





The fonts correspond to my confirmed originals.






Not the same as another bezel offered on Ebay for $12,000 which is also original:




I post this as it illustrates the idea that the OP watch may well have been bought solely for the bezel.


My take on this is that it was indeed bought for the BASE1000 bezel - I will be keeping an eye on future auctions.
The Alpha hands have square ends and matching lume, so the hands and the dial are not interesting to me.
The case is polished to the extent the lines are changed.
There is no movement shot, so the buyer took a chance on that.

Imagine the BASE1000 bezel adds $10,000 in value to a 2998-1 (and salability) the buyer of the Ebay watch will have to recoup $5,000 from the balance - I am not sure that wont be a tight squeeze. Possible but stressful.

Anyone here buy it?

 

[zedlebowski]

Helpful analysis! Thank you! I've been watching ebay and Chrono24 for 2998s. Certainly seems to be a scarcity of BASE 1000 bezels and a good number of early watches that should have BASE 1000s with later bezels.

 

[140dave]

I didn’t buy it, and like you I watched and studied.

My assessment was similar but with less concern on the lume plots. Not because I think they are correct but not being all that attractive I didn’t look further for possible adjustments and focused on the other dial flaws. Lazy on my side, it’s a detail I sometimes miss when looking for the more obvious tells like perfect lume on an otherwise not perfect dial.

I also made the potential mistake of saying it was a later dial, I didn’t consider it being a service dial which would have busted my valuation if so.

When I was considering it, I was looking at it as a parts watch. But I do not have the knowledge base on the Base 1000 to be sure enough to add the proper value there so I bailed on this one when it went over the value of the other parts, I had to put very little value on the most valuable part potentially because I don’t know enough to be confident. I gamble sometimes but only with enough knowledge to know the odds are in my favor.

Thanks for your assessment, always good to read.

 

[Ron_W]

Thanks, a great post to learn how to go about judging the state and originality of a watch.

 

[watchyouwant]

That was cheap. The bezel , if you want to sell it, fetches $10.000 in today's market. The rest should bring $ 9000, if the mvmt . is ok and belongs to the number range. But : I'm over Parts watches..... On the other hand : with the right Factory connections and some work, might fetch one Million with the right , fabricated story ? Aurel could be consulted.