The Baselworld 60th anniversary trilogy watches are cool and all , but the 1957 2915's wasn't really what put Omega on the map. Their geometric growth really started after the moon landing in 1969.

Yes, we've seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past few years. I have been a Rolex collector but have only recently been acquiring Speedys. I suspect there are many other Rolex enthusiasts like me that are now diverting their money to vintage Omega that is contributing to the relatively recent climb in prices. For me, when I read that only 30,000 (?) cal 321's were made, I felt that there was definitely some scarcity value that still has not been priced into the market, even at these level. Think about the millions of cal 1520/1530/1560's that Rolex produced as a comparison.

Anyhow, 2019 will be the 50th anniversary of the moon landings and I believe there will be massive media coverage (CNN special reports, TV interviews, etc) that will highlight one of the greatest achievement of man (assuming you don't think it was a hoax). Omega will no doubt leverage this opportunity.

So do you think the actual references worn on the moon (e.g. 105.012 and 145.012) will peak in value around that time ? Or will 2019 be the real inflection point where the late 60's references will start commanding Paul Newman Daytona-like prices?

 

Paul Newmans are pretty rare, and are a very very specific dial variation. So I doubt late 60 speedies in normal variations are going that high.

 

Mwo puts the number somewhere closer to 80,000 (of the ~127,000ish 321's made)..

But hey, it would be a fun roller coaster if they do take off like that!

One thing is for sure, Omega will be there to maximize sales!

 

I'm not sure what the worldwide market spread is for vintage Omega watches is at the moment, but I suspect this question would be answered differently if it was asked on a Forum where the language wasn't predominantly English and the mindset predominantly Western. To answer it one would need to consider where the demand will be coming from in 2019.

 

I don't expect 2019 and the 50th anniversary to have a specific impact on the value of vintage Speedmasters. I would expect something fun and siginificant from Omega, perhaps even a cal 321 reissue in a 105.012 commemorative reissue (let's start making our wish lists now!). But I think any unique attention of the media and the general public will likely be much more on the milestone itself, rather than on the watch or any specific piece of equipment. And the milestone itself may get a mention or two on the evening news...maybe a National Geographic or Discovery channel documentary, but quiet a few nice films are out already (Check out, "In the Shadow of the Moon" if you haven't yet seen it already!!), and the story is well documented.

The public consciousness of the moon landing may blip briefly but won't shift seminalky, and within the Speedmaster community, I think has been already demonstrated - for example, this year with the 60th anniversary of the trilogy.

So 2019 may be a fun year, but I can't see vintage Speedmaster values being impacted specifically any more than they have been in other milestone anniversary years (which is to say, very little, if no, correlation at all with respect to the anniversary).

 

2018 marks the 50th anniversary of Apollo VIII and with a commercial spaceflight mission planned will be all over the world news
2019 marks the 50th anniversary of Apollo XI but might also be the last year to adhere to the anti-magnetic standard in horlogerie
Omega's very last chances to produce a few real classic Speedmaster chronographs
Preferably:
Manual winding steel chronograph with 1968 black Speedmaster dial, DON bezel and 1960s applied Omega logo
Of course a special caseback decorated with the mission logo similar to the 30th anniversary Apollo XI The Eagle Has Landed
For sale in a small box, not the huge shoe boxes Speedmasters come in today...

Impact on values will be minimal I believe

 

No no it's year of the pig in 2019, the speedmaster came after the pig then came the Ox

 

I bought my first 321 in late 2009 very shortly after joining another forum through Bond/Seamaster motivation and not previously knowing about the Speedmaster at all.
It wasn't long before I was reading posts asking when the 'wave' would die down after the 40th Apollo 11 anniversary and for a long time I thought I'd been caught up in a frenzy I didn't even recognise and had overpaid.

A few years later and there was more talk of the next 'wave' coming in 2019 for the 50th anniversary.

Personally I can't see any 'external' factors / dates / events / anniversaries having as much impact on the watch industry and specifically the Speedy-sphere as the rise in OF, SpeedyTuesday, Hodinkee, instagram etc of the past couple of years.

There are collectors who have hinted in the distant past about 'releasing' a major chunk of their collection to the market around 2019. It would be interesting to hear what their plans were initially and how they have evolved in recent times, but I don't think it would do them any favours to be talking about such things openly on the forums. I also doubt that they believe they can predict what will happen in the coming couple of years.

As long as we're enjoying ourselves that's all that matters really.
And if Omega make something new that we like [and in my case I also win Lotto] then all the better.

 

With regard to 2019, if the collectors released their horded 321's to the international market at the same time, would that reduce the price of the less than perfect examples... or just push up the price of the top condition, non-dealer watches with desirable factors even further?

To quote @Spacefruit in his notes on the Speedmaster101 price list " We have seen tremendous rises in prices and the danger is the poor qualities are selling for silly money – to be regretted later I think." (End of quote)

So people are paying good money for poor quality watches because there's not a lot of them available. Presumably the reverse could be also be true. If suddenly there were a lot more superior examples of 321 Speedmasters available, the prices of the inferior examples would drop??? Anything wrong with this logic? And would desirable factors like 'tropical dials' and 'blue bezels' offer a level of protection against this reduction?

 

I'm just hoping Omega bring out a LE to match the occasion. Saving already and haven't got the 60th anniversary Speedy yet!!

 

I'm also not convinced by the 2019 price jump theory, although imvho prices of quality vintage Speedmasters will continue to rise anyway. Supply is limited and it seems demand is increasing so prices can only go one way I would think.
To me the Vintage Speedy is the whole package and would have been a desirable watch without the space connection, it's just the icing on the cake!